Oracle Corporation
ORCL - NYSE - $244.54 ▼ -%1.45
-
Earnings
Wed 10 Jun
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-10 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.
Oracle opens the
books on Wednesday evening.
14 analysts' median target is $240[FMP target], stock is $245, -1.9% upside potential. After Q2 +5.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +9.2%.
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summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
SELL
Council 2/6
-
Moonshot 47
B = MoonshotScore 47[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Cloud infrastructure guidance reduction from 66% -> 37-41%[Doug Caring Q-prev transcript] and the current Form 4 signal (0 transactions)[FMP Form 4] prevented an A- grade.
Q4 consensus: revenue $19.1B[FMP est], EPS $1.96[FMP est]. Doug Caring lowered Cloud infrastructure guidance to 37-41% (previous 66%) in the Q2 earnings call[Doug Caring Q-prev transcript]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$1.96
EPS Estimate
Last year $1.70 - +15% YoY YoY
41%
Cloud infrastructure Guidance
Previous quarter was 66%
2
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 2 quarters
Q2 EPS +5.3% beat[FMP] but the stock +9.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Doug Caring promised $18.6B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Doug Caring capex transcript].
Multi Cloud Database Growth
multi_cloud_database_growth
Oracle's multi-cloud database consumption surged 817% year-over-year, with the company launching new universal credits and channel reseller programs enabling customers to use Oracle database services in any cloud with consistent pricing and flexibility.
"Multi-cloud database consumption has increased 817% year over year. We launched two important programs this quarter for multi-cloud. The first is multi-cloud universal credits, which enables customers to commit once to Oracle database services and use it anywhere in any cloud with the same price and flexibility."
- Clay McGork, Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
Total Cloud Revenue Acceleration
total_cloud_revenue_acceleration
Oracle's total cloud revenue significantly accelerated, growing 33% to $8 billion compared to last year's 24% growth rate, and now accounts for half of the company's overall revenue.
"Total cloud revenue, which includes both applications and infrastructure, was up 33% at $8 billion. Representing a significant acceleration from the 24% growth rate reported last year. Cloud revenue now accounts for half of Oracle's overall revenue."
- Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
$523.3 billion
Investor Focus
Rpo Growth Diversification
rpo_growth_diversification
Oracle's Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) surged 433% year-over-year to $523.3 billion, with contracts signed with companies like Meta and NVIDIA diversifying the customer backlog.
"Remaining Performance Obligations, or RPO, ended the quarter at $523.3 billion, up 433% from last year and up $68 billion since August. Driven by contracts signed with Meta, NVIDIA, and others as we continue to diversify our customer backlog."
- Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
Fy26 Capex Increase
fy26_capex_increase
Oracle increased its FY2026 CapEx forecast by $15 billion compared to its Q1 projections to support accelerating growth and quickly monetize new RPO.
"However, given the added RPO this quarter, can be monetized quickly starting next year, we now expect fiscal 2026 CapEx will be about $15 billion higher than we forecasted after Q1."
- Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
$4.1 billion
Investor Focus
Oci Gpu Demand
oci_gpu_demand
Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue grew 66% to $4.1 billion, with GPU-related revenue soaring 177%, demonstrating significantly faster growth than competitors.
"Cloud infrastructure revenue was $4.1 billion, up 66% with GPU-related revenue growing 177%. Oracle's cloud infrastructure businesses continue to grow much faster than our competitors."
- Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
47 / 100
9-pillar methodology. News Sentiment strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth4.0
Q3 vs Q4: healthy growth (+8.1%)
Gross Margin6.0
Q3: high margin (62.2%)
Operating Leverage3.0
op margin very strong (32.8%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway3.0
FCF negative ($-11.5B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity5.0
high R&D intensity (16.1%, aggressive)
Price Momentum4.0
RSI 77.7 overbought, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0
strong buy consensus (84%)
Council Score
2 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 3 bearish (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger), 1 neutral (Ray Dalio).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -1.9%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 78
Klarman value - target upside -1.9%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside -1.9%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued
Quality business, but price is high.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
77.7
RSI 77.7 overbought, 50d above
MACD
+39.90
price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$175
stock 39.9% above - short-term support
200d MA
$207
stock 18.1% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+23%
increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$240
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$245
Pre-earnings position
Support
$176
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$176-$240 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
Oracle's last 8 quarters: 2 consecutive beats.
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.70 vs $1.64 est - +13.3%
MISS
Q1 FY26
$1.47 vs $1.48 est - +35.9%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$2.26 vs $1.64 est - -10.8%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$1.79 vs $1.70 est - +9.2%
Q2 (December 10, 2025): EPS $1.79 vs $1.70 est[FMP], +5.3% beat. D+1 movement: +9.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
Cloud infrastructure below 35%
Q2: EPS $1.79 vs $1.70 beat[FMP], stock +9.2% D+1[FMP]. Doug Caring Q2 transcript: "total cloud revenue is expected to grow from 37% to 41% in constant currency"[Doug Caring].
"total cloud revenue is expected to grow from 37% to 41% in constant currency"
- Doug Caring, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $18.6B[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 32.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"-"
- Doug Caring, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.96 + Cloud infrastructure >= 41%
Threshold: EPS > $1.96[FMP est] and Cloud infrastructure >= 41%[Doug Caring transcript].
Target: Break above median target $240[FMP target]; high target $400[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.96 + Cloud infrastructure 37-41% + CapEx promise kept
Threshold: EPS approx $1.96[FMP est], Cloud infrastructure 37-41%, Q4 CapEx < $18.6B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $245[FMP] and median $240[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.90 or Cloud infrastructure < 35% or CapEx >= $18.6B
Threshold: EPS < $1.90[FMP estx0.97] or Cloud infrastructure < 35%[Doug Caring guidance lower minus 2].
Target: Current $245 below SMA200 $207[FMP], if rejection continues, $176[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 14 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$240
12-month median target price (-1.9% upside potential)
Risk Management
$176
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$175 - 50-day MA (above, +39.9%)
$207 - 200-day MA (above, +18.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ORCL Q4 FY26
B
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.96[FMP], Cloud infrastructure guidance 37-41%[Doug Caring], CapEx threshold "below $18.6B"[Doug Caring]. Three anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
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3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
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Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Jun 10, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jun 11, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 25, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Sep 10, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the ORCL earnings preview cover?
This ORCL (ORCL) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in ORCL earnings?
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.