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Oracle Corporation
ORCL - NYSE - $244.54 (as of ) ▼ -1.45%
-
Earnings Wed 10 Jun
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-10 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Q4 FY26 earnings preview — archived, published Jul 3, 2026

The median of 14 price targets is $240[FMP target], stock is $245, -1.9% vs the analyst consensus median. Q3 FY26 EPS $1.79 vs $1.70 estimate: beat (+5.3%)[FMP earnings]. Stock move on D+1: +9.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds ·
B
Council 2/6 - Historical V1 score 47

B — FMP rating [FMP ratings].

Quick Answer

Q4 consensus: revenue $19.1B[FMP est], EPS $1.96[FMP est]. Doug Caring lowered Cloud infrastructure guidance to 37-41% (previous 66%) in the Q2 earnings call[Doug Caring Q-prev transcript]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$1.96 EPS Estimate Last year $1.70 - +15% YoY
41% Cloud infrastructure Guidance Previous quarter was 66%
2 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 2 quarters

Q3 FY26 EPS $1.79 vs $1.70 estimate: beat (+5.3%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +9.2%[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

817% Investor Focus

Multi Cloud Database Growth

multi_cloud_database_growth

Oracle's multi-cloud database consumption surged 817% year-over-year, with the company launching new universal credits and channel reseller programs enabling customers to use Oracle database services in any cloud with consistent pricing and flexibility.

"Multi-cloud database consumption has increased 817% year over year. We launched two important programs this quarter for multi-cloud. The first is multi-cloud universal credits, which enables customers to commit once to Oracle database services and use it anywhere in any cloud with the same price and flexibility."

- Clay McGork, Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
33% Investor Focus

Total Cloud Revenue Acceleration

total_cloud_revenue_acceleration

Oracle's total cloud revenue significantly accelerated, growing 33% to $8 billion compared to last year's 24% growth rate, and now accounts for half of the company's overall revenue.

"Total cloud revenue, which includes both applications and infrastructure, was up 33% at $8 billion. Representing a significant acceleration from the 24% growth rate reported last year. Cloud revenue now accounts for half of Oracle's overall revenue."

- Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
$523.3 billion Investor Focus

Rpo Growth Diversification

rpo_growth_diversification

Oracle's Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) surged 433% year-over-year to $523.3 billion, with contracts signed with companies like Meta and NVIDIA diversifying the customer backlog.

"Remaining Performance Obligations, or RPO, ended the quarter at $523.3 billion, up 433% from last year and up $68 billion since August. Driven by contracts signed with Meta, NVIDIA, and others as we continue to diversify our customer backlog."

- Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
2026 Risk Indicator

Fy26 Capex Increase

fy26_capex_increase

Oracle increased its FY2026 CapEx forecast by $15 billion compared to its Q1 projections to support accelerating growth and quickly monetize new RPO.

"However, given the added RPO this quarter, can be monetized quickly starting next year, we now expect fiscal 2026 CapEx will be about $15 billion higher than we forecasted after Q1."

- Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
$4.1 billion Investor Focus

Oci Gpu Demand

oci_gpu_demand

Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue grew 66% to $4.1 billion, with GPU-related revenue soaring 177%, demonstrating significantly faster growth than competitors.

"Cloud infrastructure revenue was $4.1 billion, up 66% with GPU-related revenue growing 177%. Oracle's cloud infrastructure businesses continue to grow much faster than our competitors."

- Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 6 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 3 bearish (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger), 1 neutral (Ray Dalio).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -1.9%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 78
Klarman value - target upside -1.9%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside -1.9%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
77.7 RSI 77.7 overbought, 50d above
MACD
+39.90 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$175 stock 39.9% above - short-term support
200d MA
$207 stock 18.1% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+23% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$240
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$245
Pre-earnings position
Support
$176
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$176-$240 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

4 quarters shown.

BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.70 vs $1.64 est · Next-day price move: +13.3%
MISS
Q1 FY26
$1.47 vs $1.48 est · Next-day price move: +35.9%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$2.26 vs $1.64 est · Next-day price move: -10.8%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$1.79 vs $1.70 est · Next-day price move: +9.2%

Q3 FY26 (December 10, 2025) EPS $1.79 vs $1.70 estimate: beat (+5.3%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +9.2%[FMP D+1].

Three scenarios: what could happen?

Cloud infrastructure below 35%

Q3 FY26 EPS $1.79 vs $1.70 estimate: beat (+5.3%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +9.2%[FMP]. Doug Caring Q2 transcript: "total cloud revenue is expected to grow from 37% to 41% in constant currency"[Doug Caring].

"total cloud revenue is expected to grow from 37% to 41% in constant currency"

- Doug Caring, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $18.6B[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 32.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.96 + Cloud infrastructure >= 41%
Threshold: EPS > $1.96[FMP est] and Cloud infrastructure >= 41%[Doug Caring transcript].
Target: Break above median target $240[FMP target]; high target $400[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.96 + Cloud infrastructure 37-41%
Threshold: EPS approx $1.96[FMP est], Cloud infrastructure 37-41%, Q4 CapEx < $18.6B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $245[FMP] and median $240[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.90 or Cloud infrastructure < 35% or CapEx >= $18.6B
Threshold: EPS < $1.90[FMP estx0.97] or Cloud infrastructure < 35%[Doug Caring guidance lower minus 2].
Current price $245 — above SMA200 $207 [FMP].

Market Outlook

What do analysts say? 14 price targets · 43 ratings

Wall Street Consensus
$240
12-month median target price (-1.9% gap to the analyst consensus median)
36
BUY
6
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$176
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$175 - 50-day MA (above, +39.9%)
$207 - 200-day MA (above, +18.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ORCL Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.96[FMP], Cloud infrastructure guidance 37-41%[Doug Caring], CapEx threshold "below $18.6B". Three anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jun 10, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jun 11, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 30, 2026 – Aug 29, 2026FILING10-K due within 60–90 days of fiscal year end (by Jul 30, 2026 – Aug 29, 2026); the exact deadline depends on filer status
~Sep 10, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the ORCL Q4 FY26 earnings preview cover?

This Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Q4 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in ORCL Q4 FY26 earnings?

Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

Oracle Corporation (ORCL): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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