PulteGroup, Inc.
PHM - NYSE - $117.55 ▲ +%0.62
-
Earnings Tue 28 Jul

PulteGroup opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

4 analysts' median target is $145[FMP target], stock is $118, +23.4% upside potential. After Q1 +-0.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.4%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A+
BUY Council 2/6 - Moonshot 37

A+ = MoonshotScore 37[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $4.0B[FMP est], EPS $2.39[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.39 EPS Estimate Last year $2.58 - -21% YoY YoY
0 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 0 quarters

Q1 EPS +-0.6% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.4% D+1[FMP D+1]. Jim Ossowski promised $25396 CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Jim Ossowski capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

3% Expectation / Guide

Community Count Growth Guidance

community_count_growth_guidance

PulteGroup, Inc. expects year-over-year community count growth of 3% to 5% in each of the remaining months of 2026.

"Consistent with the guide we provided on our last earnings call, given land investments made in prior years, we expect year-over-year community count growth of 3% to 5% in each of the remaining months of 2026."

- James Ossowski, Executive Vice President and CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
3% Expectation / Guide

Land Investment Guidance

land_investment_guidance

PulteGroup, Inc. is projecting land acquisition and development spend of $5.4 billion in 2026.

"Given current market dynamics, and our expected 3% to 5% growth in community count, we are projecting land acquisition and development spend of $5.4 billion in 2026."

- James Ossowski, Executive Vice President and CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
24.5% Expectation / Guide

Gross Margin Outlook

gross_margin_outlook

PulteGroup, Inc. maintains its guide for full year 2026 gross margin to be in the range of 24.5% to 25%, although likely toward the lower end of the range.

"As such, we maintain our guide for full year 2026 gross margin to be in the range of 24.5% to 25%, although likely toward the lower end of the range."

- James Ossowski, Executive Vice President and CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
28,500 Expectation / Guide

Full Year Closing Guidance

full_year_closing_guidance

PulteGroup, Inc. expects to close between 28,500 and 29,000 homes for full year 2026.

"This keeps us on track with our previous guidance on closings, in the range of 28,500 to 29,000 homes for full year 2026."

- James Ossowski, Executive Vice President and CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
$1.5 Investor Focus

Share Repurchase Authorization

share_repurchase_authorization

PulteGroup, Inc.'s board authorized an additional $1.5 billion for share repurchases, bringing total availability to $2.1 billion.

"In a separate press release we issued this morning, we announced that our board authorized an additional $1.5 billion for share repurchases, which brings total availability to $2.1 billion."

- James Ossowski, Executive Vice President and CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
$1.79 Investor Focus

Q1 Earnings Per Share

q1_earnings_per_share

PulteGroup, Inc. reported earnings of $1.79 per share in Q1 2026.

"PulteGroup, Inc.'s net income for the first quarter was $347 million, or $1.79 per share."

- James Ossowski, Executive Vice President and CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 37 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-22.6%, contraction)
Gross Margin2.0Q1: low margin (24.1%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (12.9%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.0B, 5.3x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 43.4 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (56%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +23.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 43
Klarman value - target upside +23.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +23.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
43.4 RSI 43.4 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-3.80 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$122 stock 3.8% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$126 stock 6.4% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-21% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$145
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$118
Pre-earnings position
Support
$107
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$107-$145 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

PulteGroup,'s last 8 quarters: 0 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$3.03 vs $2.95 est - -1.6%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.96 vs $2.89 est - -2.5%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$2.58 vs $2.81 est - -1.7%
MISS
Q1 FY26
$1.79 vs $1.80 est - -2.4%

Q1 (April 23, 2026): EPS $1.79 vs $1.80 est[FMP], +-0.6% beat. D+1 movement: -2.4%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.32 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.79 vs $1.80 beat[FMP], stock -2.4% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $25396[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 12.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.39 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.39[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $145[FMP target]; high target $162[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.39 + CapEx < $25396
Threshold: EPS approx $2.39[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $25396[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $118[FMP] and median $145[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.32 or CapEx >= $25396
Threshold: EPS < $2.32[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $118 below SMA200 $126[FMP], if rejection continues, $107[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 4 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$145
12-month median target price (+23.4% upside potential)
9
BUY
6
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$107
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$122 - 50-day MA (below, -3.8%)
$126 - 200-day MA (below, -6.4%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - PHM Q4 FY26
A+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.39[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $25396"[Jim Ossowski]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).

3 subscriptions. 1 platform.

Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts

Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing

Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.

Try Pro free for 14 days PHM dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 28, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 29, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 11, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 28, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the PHM earnings preview cover?

This PHM (PHM) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in PHM earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.