Stock Expert AI

Content generated by AI editorial engine. Editorially supervised by Sedat ANAK.

Philip Morris International Inc.
PM - NYSE - $170.99 (as of ) ▼ -0.07%
-
Earnings Wed 22 Jul
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-07-22 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) Q2 FY26 earnings preview — archived, published May 9, 2026

The median of 4 price targets is $190[FMP target], stock is $171, +11.1% vs the analyst consensus median. Q1 FY26 EPS $1.96 vs $1.86 estimate: beat (+5.4%)[FMP earnings]. Stock move on D+1: +3.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds ·
B-
Council 2/6 - Historical V1 score 44

B- — FMP rating [FMP ratings]. Form 4: unavailable[FMP Form 4].

Quick Answer

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) Q2 consensus: revenue $10.6B[FMP est], EPS $2.06[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$2.06 EPS Estimate Last year $1.91 - +8% YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 FY26 EPS $1.96 vs $1.86 estimate: beat (+5.4%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +3.2%[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

10.9 Investor Focus

Iqos Growth

iqos_growth

IQOS delivered adjusted in-market sales growth of plus 10.9%, with strong momentum across markets including Europe and Japan.

"Within smoke-free International, IQOS delivered another strong quarter with adjusted in-market sales growth of plus 10.9%. This reflects very good and broad-based momentum across markets and regions, including Europe and Japan."

- Operator - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
1 Investor Focus

Veev Growth

veev_growth

VEEV reinforced its position as the fastest-growing international brand in Europe, becoming the joint #1 closed pot brand in Europe.

"I am pleased to share that VEEV became the joint #1 close pot brand in Europe in Q4 '25, as estimated by Nielsen [indiscernible] across 19 markets, surpassing long-established players."

- Operator - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
50 Investor Focus

Zyn Growth

zyn_growth

ZYN grew by well over 50% excluding the more mature Nordic market.

"On this latter scope, where the greatest opportunity lies. We estimate offtake volumes grew by well over 50% and gaining share in a dynamic category."

- Operator - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
9.1 Investor Focus

Smoke Free Volume Growth

smoke-free_volume_growth

PM reported a plus 9.1% year-over-year increase in smoke-free product shipments, in line with its full year target of high single-digit growth.

"Smoke-free shipments increased by a very good plus 9.1% versus prior year, in line with our full year target of high single-digit growth."

- Operator - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
8.5 Investor Focus

Combustible Pricing

combustible_pricing

PM achieved strong pricing of plus 8.5% in combustible and now forecasts a full year variance of more than 6%.

"Very strong pricing of plus 8.5% was the key driver with notable contribution from Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico. While we expect some moderation notably in the second half of the year due to timing and comparison effect, we now forecast a full year variance of more than 6%."

- Operator - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 6 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +11.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 59
Klarman value - target upside +11.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +11.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthWeak
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
58.7 RSI 58.7 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+2.90 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$166 stock 2.9% above - short-term support
200d MA
$164 stock 4.2% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+6% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$190
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$171
Pre-earnings position
Support
$140
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$140-$190 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

4 quarters shown.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.91 vs $1.86 est · Next-day price move: -0.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.24 vs $2.09 est · Next-day price move: +3.2%
IN LINE
Q4 FY25
$1.70 vs $1.70 est · Next-day price move: -0.5%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.96 vs $1.86 est · Next-day price move: +3.2%

Q1 FY26 (April 22, 2026) EPS $1.96 vs $1.86 estimate: beat (+5.4%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +3.2%[FMP D+1].

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.00 (no guidance)

Q1 FY26 EPS $1.96 vs $1.86 estimate: beat (+5.4%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +3.2%[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $353.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 38.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q2 EPS > $2.06 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.06[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $190[FMP target]; high target $205[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.06 + CapEx < $353.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.06[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $353.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $171[FMP] and median $190[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.00 or CapEx >= $353.0M
Threshold: EPS < $2.00[FMP estx0.97].
Current price $171 — above SMA200 $164 [FMP].

Market Outlook

What do analysts say? 4 price targets · 16 ratings

Wall Street Consensus
$190
12-month median target price (+11.1% gap to the analyst consensus median)
11
BUY
5
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$140
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$166 - 50-day MA (above, +2.9%)
$164 - 200-day MA (above, +4.2%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - PM Q2 FY26
B-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q2 EPS threshold $2.06[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $353.0M". Two anchors, three scenarios.

Comparison Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card.

3 subscriptions. 1 platform.

Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts

Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing

Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card. Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 22, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 23, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 14, 2026FILING10-Q due within 40–45 days of quarter end (by Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 14, 2026); the exact deadline depends on filer status
~Oct 22, 2026EARNINGSQ3 FY26 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the PM Q2 FY26 earnings preview cover?

This Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) Q2 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in PM Q2 FY26 earnings?

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

More earnings, decoded