Philip Morris International Inc.
PM - NYSE - $170.99 ▼ -%0.07
-
Earnings Wed 22 Jul

Philip opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

4 analysts' median target is $190[FMP target], stock is $171, +11.1% upside potential. After Q1 +5.4% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +3.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B-
HOLD Council 2/6 - Moonshot 44

B- = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $10.6B[FMP est], EPS $2.06[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.06 EPS Estimate Last year $1.70 - +8% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +5.4% beat[FMP] but the stock +3.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Jacek Olczak promised $353.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Jacek Olczak capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

10.9 Investor Focus

Iqos Growth

iqos_growth

IQOS delivered adjusted in-market sales growth of plus 10.9%, with strong momentum across markets including Europe and Japan.

"Within smoke-free International, IQOS delivered another strong quarter with adjusted in-market sales growth of plus 10.9%. This reflects very good and broad-based momentum across markets and regions, including Europe and Japan."

- Operator - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
1 Investor Focus

Veev Growth

veev_growth

VEEV reinforced its position as the fastest-growing international brand in Europe, becoming the joint #1 closed pot brand in Europe.

"I am pleased to share that VEEV became the joint #1 close pot brand in Europe in Q4 '25, as estimated by Nielsen [indiscernible] across 19 markets, surpassing long-established players."

- Operator - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
50 Investor Focus

Zyn Growth

zyn_growth

ZYN grew by well over 50% excluding the more mature Nordic market.

"On this latter scope, where the greatest opportunity lies. We estimate offtake volumes grew by well over 50% and gaining share in a dynamic category."

- Operator - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
9.1 Investor Focus

Smoke Free Volume Growth

smoke-free_volume_growth

PM reported a plus 9.1% year-over-year increase in smoke-free product shipments, in line with its full year target of high single-digit growth.

"Smoke-free shipments increased by a very good plus 9.1% versus prior year, in line with our full year target of high single-digit growth."

- Operator - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
8.5 Investor Focus

Combustible Pricing

combustible_pricing

PM achieved strong pricing of plus 8.5% in combustible and now forecasts a full year variance of more than 6%.

"Very strong pricing of plus 8.5% was the key driver with notable contribution from Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico. While we expect some moderation notably in the second half of the year due to timing and comparison effect, we now forecast a full year variance of more than 6%."

- Operator - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 44 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+0.1%, below threshold)
Gross Margin7.0Q1: very high margin (68.1%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage4.0op margin very strong (38.4%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-0.8B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 58.7 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment7.0majority buy (69%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +11.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 59
Klarman value - target upside +11.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +11.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthWeak
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
58.7 RSI 58.7 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+2.90 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$166 stock 2.9% above - short-term support
200d MA
$164 stock 4.2% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+6% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$190
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$171
Pre-earnings position
Support
$140
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$140-$190 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Philip's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.91 vs $1.86 est - -0.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.24 vs $2.09 est - +3.2%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.70 vs $1.70 est - -0.5%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.96 vs $1.86 est - +3.2%

Q1 (April 22, 2026): EPS $1.96 vs $1.86 est[FMP], +5.4% beat. D+1 movement: +3.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.00 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.96 vs $1.86 beat[FMP], stock +3.2% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $353.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 38.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.06 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.06[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $190[FMP target]; high target $205[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.06 + CapEx < $353.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.06[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $353.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $171[FMP] and median $190[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.00 or CapEx >= $353.0M
Threshold: EPS < $2.00[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $171 below SMA200 $164[FMP], if rejection continues, $140[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 4 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$190
12-month median target price (+11.1% upside potential)
11
BUY
5
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$140
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$166 - 50-day MA (above, +2.9%)
$164 - 200-day MA (above, +4.2%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - PM Q4 FY26
B-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.06[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $353.0M"[Jacek Olczak]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 22, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 23, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 5, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 22, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the PM earnings preview cover?

This PM (PM) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in PM earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.