Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
RCL - NYSE - $275.24 ▼ -%2.00
-
Earnings Tue 4 Aug

Royal opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

10 analysts' median target is $350[FMP target], stock is $275, +27.2% upside potential. After Q1 +11.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.7%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 4/6 - Moonshot 46

B = MoonshotScore 46[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $4.8B[FMP est], EPS $3.99[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$3.99 EPS Estimate Last year $3.60 - -9% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +11.1% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Naftali Holtz promised $500.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Naftali Holtz capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

1.5% Expectation / Guide

Net Yield Guidance

net_yield_guidance

Royal Caribbean adjusted its full year net yield expectations to grow 1.5% to 2.5% due to geopolitical events.

"Due to the geopolitical events affecting itineraries in the Mediterranean and the West Coast of Mexico, we've adjusted our full year net yield expectations."

- Jason Liberty, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$17.10 Expectation / Guide

EPS Guidance

EPS_guidance

Royal Caribbean expects full year adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $17.10 to $17.50 for 2026.

"Full year adjusted earnings per share is expected to grow double digits and be in the range of $17.10 to $17.50."

- Jason Liberty, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
2019 Investor Focus

Digital Booking Growth

digital_booking_growth

Royal Caribbean's digital penetration of bookings has more than doubled since 2019, with most of that growth coming through our app.

"Digital penetration of bookings has more than doubled over that period with most of that growth coming through our app."

- Jason Liberty, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
60% Investor Focus

Fuel Cost Impact

fuel_cost_impact

Royal Caribbean anticipates that increased fuel costs will reduce 2026 earnings by roughly $0.62 per share.

"While we are approximately 60% hedged for 2026, fuel prices at current spot levels are expected to increase costs by roughly $0.62 per share this year."

- Jason Liberty, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 46 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-1.9%, contraction)
Gross Margin5.0Q1: average margin (49.5%)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin healthy (26.1%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.3B, 2.7x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 51.7 balanced, 50d below
News Sentiment7.0strong buy consensus (73%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +27.2%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 52
Klarman value - target upside +27.2%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +27.2%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
51.7 RSI 51.7 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-0.10 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$275 stock 0.1% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$298 stock 7.6% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-27% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$350
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$275
Pre-earnings position
Support
$253
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$253-$350 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Royal's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$4.38 vs $4.09 est - -1.0%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$5.75 vs $5.69 est - -4.4%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$2.80 vs $2.80 est - -6.2%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$3.60 vs $3.24 est - +0.7%

Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $3.60 vs $3.24 est[FMP], +11.1% beat. D+1 movement: +0.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.87 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $3.60 vs $3.24 beat[FMP], stock +0.7% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $500.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 26.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $3.99 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.99[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $350[FMP target]; high target $425[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.99 + CapEx < $500.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $3.99[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $500.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $275[FMP] and median $350[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.87 or CapEx >= $500.0M
Threshold: EPS < $3.87[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $275 below SMA200 $298[FMP], if rejection continues, $253[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 10 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$350
12-month median target price (+27.2% upside potential)
19
BUY
7
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$253
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$275 - 50-day MA (below, -0.1%)
$298 - 200-day MA (below, -7.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - RCL Q1 FY27
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $3.99[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $500.0M"[Naftali Holtz]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days RCL dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 4, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 5, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 18, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 4, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the RCL earnings preview cover?

This RCL (RCL) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in RCL earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.