Raymond James Financial, Inc.
RJF - NYSE - $154.33 ▲ +%0.51
-
Earnings Wed 22 Jul

Raymond opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

6 analysts' median target is $169[FMP target], stock is $154, +9.5% upside potential. After Q2 +2.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.7%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 59

B+ = MoonshotScore 59[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $3.9B[FMP est], EPS $2.91[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.91 EPS Estimate Last year $3.11 - +33% YoY YoY
3 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 3 quarters

Q2 EPS +2.5% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Butch Oorlog promised $45.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Butch Oorlog capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

$3.86 billion Investor Focus

Record Quarterly Revenues

record_quarterly_revenues

Raymond James achieved record quarterly revenues of $3.86 billion, driven by a focus on its long-term strategy.

"Continued focus on our long-term strategy drove record quarterly revenues of $3.86 billion, representing growth of 13% over the prior year quarter and 3% above the preceding quarter."

- Paul Shoukry, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
$141 million Investor Focus

Adviser Recruiting

adviser_recruiting

Raymond James recruited financial advisers to our domestic independent contractor and employee channels, with trailing 12-month production totaling $141 million, nearly $21 billion of client assets at their previous firms.

"We recruited financial advisers to our domestic independent contractor and employee channels, with trailing 12-month production totaling $141 million, nearly $21 billion of client assets at their previous firms."

- Paul Shoukry, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
$1.7 trillion Investor Focus

Private Client Group Assets

private_client_group_assets

Raymond James' Private Client Group ended the quarter with $1.7 trillion of client assets under administration, down slightly compared to the preceding quarter, but representing year-over-year growth of 15%.

"In the Private Client Group, we ended the quarter with $1.7 trillion of client assets under administration down slightly compared to the preceding quarter, but representing year-over-year growth of 15%."

- Paul Shoukry, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
$23 billion Investor Focus

Domestic Net New Assets

domestic_net_new_assets

In the fiscal second quarter, Raymond James' quarterly domestic net new assets were $23 billion, representing a 5.8% annualized growth rate.

"In the fiscal second quarter, quarterly domestic net new assets were $23 billion, representing a 5.8% annualized growth rate."

- Paul Shoukry, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 59 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth6.0Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+12.6%)
Gross Margin9.0Q2: very high margin (90.5%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (17.2%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.1B, 23.4x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 52.0 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment4.0mixed (43% buy)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +9.5%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 52
Klarman value - target upside +9.5%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +9.5%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
52.0 RSI 52.0 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+3.00 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$150 stock 3.0% above - short-term support
200d MA
$161 stock 4.1% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+9% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$169
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$154
Pre-earnings position
Support
$137
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$137-$169 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Raymond's last 8 quarters: 3 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q3 FY25
$2.18 vs $2.37 est - +3.7%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$3.11 vs $2.83 est - -0.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.86 vs $2.83 est - -0.4%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$2.83 vs $2.76 est - -0.7%

Q2 (April 22, 2026): EPS $2.83 vs $2.76 est[FMP], +2.5% beat. D+1 movement: -0.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.82 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $2.83 vs $2.76 beat[FMP], stock -0.7% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $45.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 17.2%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.91 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.91[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $169[FMP target]; high target $172[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.91 + CapEx < $45.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.91[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $45.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $154[FMP] and median $169[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.82 or CapEx >= $45.0M
Threshold: EPS < $2.82[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $154 below SMA200 $161[FMP], if rejection continues, $137[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 6 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$169
12-month median target price (+9.5% upside potential)
6
BUY
8
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$137
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$150 - 50-day MA (above, +3.0%)
$161 - 200-day MA (below, -4.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - RJF Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.91[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $45.0M"[Butch Oorlog]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days RJF dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 22, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 23, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 5, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 22, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the RJF earnings preview cover?

This RJF (RJF) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in RJF earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.