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Ralph Lauren Corporation
RL - NYSE - $358.45 (as of ) ▲ +1.39%
-
Earnings Thu 21 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-21 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) Q4 FY26 earnings preview — archived, published May 9, 2026

The median of 1 price targets is $424[FMP target], stock is $358, +18.1% vs the analyst consensus median. Q3 FY26 EPS $6.22 vs $5.80 estimate: beat (+7.2%)[FMP earnings]. Stock move on D+1: +1.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds ·
B+
Council 3/6 - Historical V1 score 67

B+ — FMP rating [FMP ratings]. Form 4: unavailable[FMP Form 4].

Quick Answer

Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) Q4 consensus: revenue $1.8B[FMP est], EPS $2.49[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$2.49 EPS Estimate Last year $2.27 - +10% YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q3 FY26 EPS $6.22 vs $5.80 estimate: beat (+7.2%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +1.2%[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

10 Expectation / Guide

Gross Margin Outlook

gross_margin_outlook

Ralph Lauren expects gross margin to expand approximately 10 to 30 basis points for FY26, with growth in AUR, favorable cotton costs, and geographic mix more than offsetting pressure from tariffs.

"We now anticipate constant currency gross margin to expand about 10 to 30 basis points for the full year, with further growth in AUR, favorable cotton costs and geographic mix more than offsetting pressure from tariffs."

- Justin Picicci, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 6, 2025
5% Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Revenue Guidance

fy26_revenue_guidance

Ralph Lauren raised its FY26 revenue growth outlook to approximately 5% to 7% due to strong first-half performance.

"For fiscal '26, we now expect constant currency revenues to increase in a range of approximately 5% to 7%, up from low to mid-single digits previously."

- Justin Picicci, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 6, 2025
13% Investor Focus

Dtc Growth

dtc_growth

Ralph Lauren delivered another strong quarter of comp growth across regions, with global comps increasing 13%, with double-digit growth in both digital sites and physical stores.

"Within DTC, which comprises the majority of our business, we delivered another strong quarter of comp growth across regions. Global comps increased 13%, above our expectations, with double-digit growth in both our digital sites and physical stores."

- Patrice Louvet, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 6, 2025
30% Risk Indicator

China Growth

china_growth

Ralph Lauren's sales in China increased by more than 30% this quarter, driven by a strong consumer response.

"China grew more than 30% in the quarter, ahead of our outlook with a strong consumer response to our brand building activities, including our Summer of Sports campaigns and amplification of our New York Fashion Show."

- Justin Picicci, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 6, 2025
7.5% Investor Focus

Marketing Expenses

marketing_expenses

Ralph Lauren now expects marketing as a percentage of sales to be approximately 7.5% in fiscal '26, in line with its long-range plan.

"We now expect marketing as a percentage of sales to be approximately 7.5% in fiscal '26, in line with our long-range plan."

- Justin Picicci, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 6, 2025

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 6 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +18.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 47
Klarman value - target upside +18.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +18.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
47.3 RSI 47.3 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+0.60 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$356 stock 0.6% above - short-term support
200d MA
$340 stock 5.6% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+21% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$424
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$358
Pre-earnings position
Support
$289
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$289-$424 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

4 quarters shown.

BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.27 vs $2.04 est · Next-day price move: -1.2%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$3.77 vs $3.51 est · Next-day price move: +1.7%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$3.79 vs $3.45 est · Next-day price move: +3.1%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$6.22 vs $5.80 est · Next-day price move: +1.2%

Q3 FY26 (November 6, 2025) EPS $6.22 vs $5.80 estimate: beat (+7.2%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +1.2%[FMP D+1].

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.42 (no guidance)

Q3 FY26 EPS $6.22 vs $5.80 estimate: beat (+7.2%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +1.2%[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $75.6M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 20.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.49 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.49[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $424[FMP target]; high target $480[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.49 + CapEx < $75.6M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.49[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $75.6M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $358[FMP] and median $424[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.42 or CapEx >= $75.6M
Threshold: EPS < $2.42[FMP estx0.97].
Current price $358 — above SMA200 $340 [FMP].

Market Outlook

What do analysts say? 1 price targets · 19 ratings

Wall Street Consensus
$424
12-month median target price (+18.1% gap to the analyst consensus median)
16
BUY
2
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$289
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$356 - 50-day MA (above, +0.6%)
$340 - 200-day MA (above, +5.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - RL Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.49[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $75.6M". Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card. Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 21, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 22, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
May 26, 2026 – Jun 25, 2026FILING10-K due within 60–90 days of fiscal year end (by May 26, 2026 – Jun 25, 2026); the exact deadline depends on filer status
~Aug 21, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the RL Q4 FY26 earnings preview cover?

This Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) Q4 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in RL Q4 FY26 earnings?

Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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