ResMed Inc.
RMD - NYSE - $206.76 ▼ -%0.06
-
Earnings Thu 30 Jul

ResMed opens the
books on Thursday evening.

3 analysts' median target is $275[FMP target], stock is $207, +33.0% upside potential. After Q2 +2.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -4.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A
BUY Council 4/6 - Moonshot 53

A = MoonshotScore 53[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $1.5B[FMP est], EPS $2.90[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.90 EPS Estimate Last year $2.55 - +14% YoY YoY
3 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 3 quarters

Q2 EPS +2.5% beat[FMP] but the stock -4.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Brett Sandercock promised $33.7M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Brett Sandercock capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

19% Expectation / Guide

SG&A Expense Guidance

SG&A_expense_guidance

ResMed still expects SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue to be in the range of 19% to 20% for fiscal year 2026.

"Looking forward and subject to currency movements, we still expect SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue to be in the range of 19% to 20% for fiscal year 2026."

- Brett Sandercock - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 29, 2026
6% Expectation / Guide

R&D Expense Guidance

R&D_expense_guidance

ResMed still expects R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue to be in the range of 6% to 7% for fiscal year 2026.

"Looking forward and subject to currency movements, we still expect R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue to be in the range of 6% to 7% for fiscal year 2026."

- Brett Sandercock - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 29, 2026
62% Risk Indicator

Gross Margin Improvement

gross_margin_improvement

ResMed expects gross margin to be in the range of 62% to 63% for fiscal year 2026.

"Looking forward and subject to currency movements, we now expect gross margin will be in the range of 62% to 63% for fiscal year 2026."

- Brett Sandercock - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 29, 2026
2027 Expectation / Guide

RCS Growth Outlook

RCS_growth_outlook

I remain confident that we will be back to sustainable high single-digit growth and double-digit operating profit growth in fiscal year 2027.

"I remain confident that we will be back to sustainable high single-digit growth and double-digit operating profit growth in fiscal year 2027."

- Michael Farrell - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 29, 2026
8% Investor Focus

EMEA APAC Mask Growth

EMEA_APAC_mask_growth

The team from EMEA and APAC has delivered, and we achieved 8% growth on a constant currency basis across Europe, Asia and Rest of World

"The team from EMEA and APAC has delivered, and we achieved 8% growth on a constant currency basis across Europe, Asia and Rest of World"

- Michael Farrell - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 29, 2026
$600 Investor Focus

Share Repurchase Program

share_repurchase_program

We plan to continue to repurchase shares for a total value of more than $600 million for fiscal year 2026.

"We plan to continue to repurchase shares for a total value of more than $600 million for fiscal year 2026."

- Brett Sandercock - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 29, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 53 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth3.0Q3 vs Q4: moderate growth (+6.2%)
Gross Margin6.0Q3: high margin (62.2%)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin very strong (34.9%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.5B, 15.5x CapEx)
R&D Intensity5.0average R&D (6.5%)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 33.1 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (58%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +33.0%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 33
Klarman value - target upside +33.0%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +33.0%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
33.1 RSI 33.1 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-9.40 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$228 stock 9.4% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$254 stock 18.7% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-43% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$275
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$207
Pre-earnings position
Support
$216
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$216-$275 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

ResMed's last 8 quarters: 3 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q4 FY25
$2.55 vs $2.55 est - +2.7%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.55 vs $2.51 est - -2.1%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$2.81 vs $2.74 est - +0.3%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$2.86 vs $2.79 est - -4.1%

Q2 (January 29, 2026): EPS $2.86 vs $2.79 est[FMP], +2.5% beat. D+1 movement: -4.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.81 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $2.86 vs $2.79 beat[FMP], stock -4.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $33.7M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 34.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.90 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.90[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $275[FMP target]; high target $345[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.90 + CapEx < $33.7M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.90[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $33.7M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $207[FMP] and median $275[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.81 or CapEx >= $33.7M
Threshold: EPS < $2.81[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $207 below SMA200 $254[FMP], if rejection continues, $216[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 3 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$275
12-month median target price (+33.0% upside potential)
11
BUY
7
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$216
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$228 - 50-day MA (below, -9.4%)
$254 - 200-day MA (below, -18.7%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - RMD Q4 FY26
A

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.90[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $33.7M"[Brett Sandercock]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 30, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 31, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 30, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the RMD earnings preview cover?

This RMD (RMD) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in RMD earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.