Ross Stores, Inc.
ROST - NASDAQ - $225.81 ▲ +%0.59
-
Earnings Thu 21 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-21 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Ross opens the
books on Thursday evening.

6 analysts' median target is $205[FMP target], stock is $226, -9.2% upside potential. After Q3 +5.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +8.0%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
SELL Council 2/6 - Moonshot 60

B = MoonshotScore 60[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $5.6B[FMP est], EPS $1.65[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.65 EPS Estimate Last year $2.00 - +12% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q3 EPS +5.3% beat[FMP] but the stock +8.0% D+1[FMP D+1]. Bill Sheehan promised $200.9M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q3 earnings call[Bill Sheehan capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

3% Expectation / Guide

Comp Sales Guidance Q4

comp_sales_guidance_q4

Ross Stores expects comparable store sales to increase 3% to 4% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.

"As a result, for the thirteen weeks ending January 31, 2026, we are raising our comparable store sales forecast to be up 3% to 4% with earnings per share in the range of $1.77 to $1.85."

- Bill Sheehan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q3 FY25 Earnings Call - November 20, 2025
2025 Expectation / Guide

Fy25 Eps Guidance

fy25_eps_guidance

Ross Stores is increasing its earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2025 to be in the range of $6.38 to $6.46.

"Based on our year-to-date results, and updated fourth quarter forecast, we are increasing our earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2025 to be in the range of $6.38 to $6.46."

- Bill Sheehan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q3 FY25 Earnings Call - November 20, 2025
$0.15 Investor Focus

Tariff Impact Negligible Q4

tariff_impact_negligible_q4

Ross Stores now forecasts the fourth quarter impact to be negligible, leading to a full-year cost of approximately $0.15 per share.

"As for tariffs, we now forecast the fourth quarter impact to be negligible, leading to a full-year cost of approximately $0.15 per share."

- Bill Sheehan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q3 FY25 Earnings Call - November 20, 2025
- Investor Focus

Inventory Levels Healthy

inventory_levels_healthy

We feel very good about the health and levels of our inventory, and are well positioned to deliver a broad assortment of values this holiday selling season.

"We feel very good about the health and levels of our inventory, and are well positioned to deliver a broad assortment of values this holiday selling season."

- Jim Conroy, Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY25 Earnings Call - November 20, 2025
- Investor Focus

Branded Strategy Ladies Business

branded_strategy_ladies_business

Ross Stores' branded strategy has particularly helped the ladies' business, which further accelerated this quarter and comped above the chain average.

"This strategy has particularly helped the ladies' business, which further accelerated this quarter and comped above the chain average."

- Jim Conroy, Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY25 Earnings Call - November 20, 2025

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 60 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Gross Margin weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+33.1%)
Gross Margin3.0Q4: low margin (28.0%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (12.3%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.9B, 4.6x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 54.7 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (78%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 2 bearish (Klarman, Munger), 2 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -9.2%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 55
Klarman value - target upside -9.2%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside -9.2%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
54.7 RSI 54.7 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+3.50 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$218 stock 3.5% above - short-term support
200d MA
$180 stock 25.7% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+71% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$205
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$226
Pre-earnings position
Support
$153
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$153-$205 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Ross beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q1 FY25
$1.47 vs $1.44 est - -9.8%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.56 vs $1.53 est - +1.1%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.58 vs $1.42 est - +8.4%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.00 vs $1.90 est - +8.0%

Q3 (November 20, 2025): EPS $2.00 vs $1.90 est[FMP], +5.3% beat. D+1 movement: +8.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.60 (no guidance)

Q3: EPS $2.00 vs $1.90 beat[FMP], stock +8.0% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q3 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q3 CapEx $200.9M[FMP cashflow]. Q3 op margin 12.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.65 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.65[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $205[FMP target]; high target $290[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.65 + CapEx < $200.9M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.65[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $200.9M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $226[FMP] and median $205[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.60 or CapEx >= $200.9M
Threshold: EPS < $1.60[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $226 below SMA200 $180[FMP], if rejection continues, $153[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 6 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$205
12-month median target price (-9.2% upside potential)
14
BUY
3
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$153
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$218 - 50-day MA (above, +3.5%)
$180 - 200-day MA (above, +25.7%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ROST Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.65[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $200.9M"[Bill Sheehan]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days ROST dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 21, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 22, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 5, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 21, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the ROST earnings preview cover?

This ROST (ROST) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in ROST earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.