4 analysts' median target is $230[FMP target], stock is $218, +5.4% upside potential. After Q1 +-10.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +2.4%.
B- = MoonshotScore 54[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $706.1M[FMP est], EPS $1.84[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +-10.3% beat[FMP] but the stock +2.4% D+1[FMP D+1]. Marc Montagner promised $48.4M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Marc Montagner capex transcript].
Watchlist
Tower Cash Flow Margins
tower_cash_flow_margins
SBA continued to operate efficiently in the first quarter, controlling direct costs and achieving company-wide tower cash flow margins of approximately 80%.
"In the first quarter, we continue to operate efficiently, controlling direct costs and achieving company-wide tower cash flow margins of approximately 80%."
- Marc Montagner, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Dividend Increase
dividend_increase
SBA's Board of Directors declared its first quarter dividend of $1.25 per share, payable on June 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 22, 2026. This dividend represents an increase of approximately 13% over the dividend paid in the first quarter of 2025.
"And today, we announced that our Board of Directors declared our first quarter dividend of $1.25 per share, payable on June 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 22, 2026. This dividend represents an increase of approximately 13% over the dividend paid in the first quarter of 2025"
- Marc Montagner, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Increased Full Year Outlook
increased_full_year_outlook
SBA is increasing its full year outlook for all key metrics, including site leasing revenue, cash flow, adjusted EBITDA, AFFO and AFFO per share, given the solid start to the year.
"Given the solid start of the year, we are increasing our full year outlook for all key metrics, including site leasing revenue, our cash flow, adjusted EBITDA, AFFO and AFFO per share as compared to our initial 2026 guidance."
- Marc Montagner, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Us Leasing Activity
us_leasing_activity
In the U.S., SBA added approximately $10 million of quarterly new lease and amendment billings year-over-year, with the bulk of the activity coming from new colocations as carriers both densify and expanded network footprint.
"In the U.S. we added approximately $10 million of quarterly new lease and amendment billings year-over-year. The bulk of the activity continues to come from new colocations as carrier both densify and expanded network footprint."
- Marc Montagner, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Investment Grade Issuer
investment_grade_issuer
SBA continues to be committed to becoming an investment-grade issuer and anticipate making our inaugural investment-grade bond issuance at some point in 2026, dependent market conditions.
"We also continue to be committed to becoming an investment-grade issuer and anticipate making our inaugural investment-grade bond issuance at some point in 2026, dependent market conditions."
- Marc Montagner, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
International Churn Peak
international_churn_peak
SBA believes 2026 will be the peak year for international churn and expect improvement in our churn rate over the next several years.
"We believe 2026 will be the peak year for international churn and expect improvement in our churn rate over the next several years."
- Marc Montagner, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $1.74 vs $1.94 est[FMP], +-10.3% beat. D+1 movement: +2.4%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.74 vs $1.94 beat[FMP], stock +2.4% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $48.4M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 48.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Monday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Monday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.84[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $48.4M"[Marc Montagner]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This SBAC (SBAC) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.