S&P Global Inc.
SPGI - NYSE - $426.06 ▼ -%1.20
-
Earnings Thu 30 Jul

S&P opens the
books on Thursday evening.

9 analysts' median target is $550[FMP target], stock is $426, +29.1% upside potential. After Q1 +2.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 4/6 - Moonshot 64

B = MoonshotScore 64[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $4.1B[FMP est], EPS $4.93[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$4.93 EPS Estimate Last year $4.30 - +11% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +2.7% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Eric Aboaf promised $27.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Eric Aboaf capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

4.5% Investor Focus

Energy Revenue Growth Revised

energy_revenue_growth_revised

S&P Global has lowered its organic constant currency revenue growth expectation for the Energy division to a range of 4.5% to 6% due to the conflict in Iran.

"Given the external environment, particularly the impact of the Iran conflict and the energy disruption on both the demand and supply side, we currently expect to deliver organic constant currency revenue growth in the range of 4.5% to 6%, 1 percentage point lower than the previous guidance."

- Eric Aboaf, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
50 Expectation / Guide

Margin Expansion Guidance

margin_expansion_guidance

S&P Global is reiterating its guidance for 50 to 75 basis points of margin expansion in 2026 excluding the impact of OSTTRA.

"We're also reiterating our guidance for 50 to 75 basis points of margin expansion in 2026 excluding the impact of OSTTRA."

- Eric Aboaf, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
6% Investor Focus

Organic Constant Currency Revenue Growth

organic_constant_currency_revenue_growth

S&P Global reiterated its guidance for organic constant currency revenue growth in the range of 6% to 8% for 2026.

"At the consolidated level, we are reiterating our guidance for organic constant currency revenue growth in the range of 6% to 8%."

- Eric Aboaf, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
85% Investor Focus

Share Repurchase Increase

share_repurchase_increase

S&P Global plans to increase its share repurchases from an expected 85% of adjusted free cash flow to at least 100%, or roughly $4.5 billion for the year.

"Given the strength and resilience of our business and our confidence in its long-term profitable growth, we believe the current share price reflects an attractive opportunity to increase our repurchases from the expected 85% of adjusted free cash flow to at least 100% or to roughly $4.5 billion for the year."

- Eric Aboaf, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 64 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. R&D Intensity weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth6.0Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+11.1%)
Gross Margin7.0Q1: very high margin (70.4%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage5.0op margin very strong (48.0%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.0B, 37.4x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 44.2 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment10.0strong buy consensus (96%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +29.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 44
Klarman value - target upside +29.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +29.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
44.2 RSI 44.2 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-1.00 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$430 stock 1.0% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$490 stock 13.0% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-37% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$550
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$426
Pre-earnings position
Support
$416
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$416-$550 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

S&P's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$4.43 vs $4.21 est - -1.0%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$4.73 vs $4.42 est - -0.9%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$4.30 vs $4.33 est - -2.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$4.97 vs $4.84 est - -0.1%

Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $4.97 vs $4.84 est[FMP], +2.7% beat. D+1 movement: -0.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $4.78 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $4.97 vs $4.84 beat[FMP], stock -0.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $27.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 48.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $4.93 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $4.93[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $550[FMP target]; high target $627[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $4.93 + CapEx < $27.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $4.93[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $27.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $426[FMP] and median $550[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $4.78 or CapEx >= $27.0M
Threshold: EPS < $4.78[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $426 below SMA200 $490[FMP], if rejection continues, $416[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 9 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$550
12-month median target price (+29.1% upside potential)
23
BUY
1
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$416
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$430 - 50-day MA (below, -1.0%)
$490 - 200-day MA (below, -13.0%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - SPGI Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $4.93[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $27.0M"[Eric Aboaf]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 30, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 31, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 30, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the SPGI earnings preview cover?

This SPGI (SPGI) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in SPGI earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.