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S&P Global Inc.
SPGI - NYSE - $416.25 ▲ +%1.05
-
Earnings Thu 29 Oct

S&P opens the
books on Thursday evening.

3 analysts' median target is $546[FMP target], stock is $416, +31.2% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +0.4% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.1%.

summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 5/6 - Moonshot 64

B = MoonshotScore 64[multi-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Quick Answer

S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) Q1 consensus: revenue $3.6B[FMP est], EPS $4.42[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$4.42 EPS Estimate Last year $4.70 - -7% YoY YoY
2 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 2 quarters

Q2 EPS +0.4% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.1% D+1[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

13th Investor Focus

Indices Record Growth Aum

indices_record_growth_aum

S&P Dow Jones Indices achieved its 13th consecutive record quarter, growing revenue by 20% and solidifying its position as the world's largest index provider with $6.35 trillion in ETF AUM.

"Indices reported its 13th consecutive record quarter for revenue and the division surpassed $2 billion of revenue on a trailing 12-month basis. Revenue in the quarter grew 20%, with excellent growth in both asset-linked fees and exchange-traded derivatives. ... ETF AUM for S&P Dow Jones Indices ended the quarter at $6.35 trillion."

- Eric Aboaf, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 28, 2026
60% Investor Focus

Ai Solutions Adoption Cost Savings

ai_solutions_adoption_cost_savings

The number of customers leveraging the company's AI solutions grew over 70% quarter-over-quarter to over 500, with LLM-ready API call volume increasing more than 5x, while the EDO achieved nearly 60% of its targeted $100 million in annualized cost savings.

"We continue to rapidly add customers to our LLM-ready APIs and MCP-connected solutions, with that number now sitting above 500 and increasing more than 70% quarter-over-quarter. API call volume continues to grow rapidly as well, showing that our customers are finding real value in these powerful solutions. Call volume for our LLM-ready API in the second quarter was more than 5x the volume we saw in the first quarter. Internally, the EDO has achieved nearly 60% of its targeted $100 million in annualized cost savings through a combination of AI-driven efficiencies and traditional productivity initiatives."

- Martina Cheung, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 28, 2026
11% Investor Focus

Strong Q2 Performance Capital Return

strong_q2_performance_capital_return

S&P Global delivered strong performance in its first quarter post-Mobility spin, with 11% revenue growth and 23% EPS growth, and increased its share repurchase target for 2026 to over $7 billion.

"We had very strong performance in the second quarter with 11% total revenue growth, outperforming our expectations on both a reported and an organic constant currency basis. ... On capital return, we have decided to increase our target share repurchase for 2026 by nearly $3 billion to more than $7 billion for the full year."

- Martina Cheung, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 28, 2026
$169 billion Investor Focus

Ratings Hyperscaler Issuance

ratings_hyperscaler_issuance

The Ratings division achieved a record quarter, driven by hyperscaler issuance supported by AI infrastructure and data center CapEx, with the full-year hyperscaler issuance outlook raised to $250 billion to $300 billion.

"In the first half, we saw approximately $169 billion in billed issuance from the hyperscalers while our initial outlook for the year assumed approximately $200 billion for the full year. Our updated financial guidance assumes billed issuance growth in the mid- to high single-digit range. We are now assuming $250 billion to $300 billion in hyperscaler issuance for the full year and double-digit growth in M&A-related issuance."

- Martina Cheung, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 28, 2026
3% Investor Focus

Energy Iran Conflict Headwinds

energy_iran_conflict_headwinds

The Energy division experienced revenue growth of 3% due to pressure from the Iran conflict, tariffs, and extreme volatility, but these headwinds are believed to be transitory with growth expected to normalize to the 6% to 8% range after 2026.

"Energy revenue grew 3% amid pressure from the challenging environment as well as the sanctions we have called out in recent quarters. The conflict in the Middle East led to continued volatility and uncertainty in the quarter. While the business remains resilient, the Iran conflict, tariffs and extreme volatility have put some strain on Energy subscription renewals, onetime sales and Global Trading Services, or GTS, as Martina mentioned. We believe these headwinds are transitory, however, and we expect growth to normalize after this year, back to the 6% to 8% average range we outlined at our Investor Day."

- Eric Aboaf, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 28, 2026
2 Investor Focus

Market Intelligence Restructuring

market_intelligence_restructuring

The Market Intelligence division has been restructured into two new business lines, Kensho Data & Platforms and Enterprise Solutions, with Kensho Data growing in the high single-digit to low double-digit range and Platforms growing low single digits.

"Within Market Intelligence, we'll be reporting 2 business lines: Kensho Data & Platforms and Enterprise Solutions. Kensho Data consists of our data feeds, Kensho LLM-ready APIs, RatingsXpress and our vast estate of proprietary data. The Kensho Data component is roughly half the size of platforms by revenue, but is growing in the high single-digit to low double-digit range on an organic basis. The Platforms component includes Cap IQ, Consulting, Issuer Solutions, RatingsDirect, Visible Alpha and With Intelligence. Platforms is the larger component of the business line and in aggregate is growing low single digits on an organic basis."

- Martina Cheung, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 5 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +31.2%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 46
Klarman value - target upside +31.2%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +31.2%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
46.3 RSI 46.3 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+0.40 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$414 stock 0.4% above - short-term support
200d MA
$454 stock 8.4% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-17% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$546
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$416
Pre-earnings position
Support
$386
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$386-$546 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

S&P's last 8 quarters: 2 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q3 FY25
$4.73 vs $4.42 est - -0.9%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$4.30 vs $4.33 est - -2.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$4.70 vs $4.58 est - -0.1%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$4.83 vs $4.81 est - -1.1%

Q2 (July 28, 2026): EPS $4.83 vs $4.81 est[FMP], +0.4% beat. D+1 movement: -1.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $4.29 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $4.83 vs $4.81 beat[FMP], stock -1.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $38.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 50.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $4.42 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $4.42[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $546[FMP target]; high target $625[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $4.42 + CapEx < $38.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $4.42[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $38.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $416[FMP] and median $546[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $4.29 or CapEx >= $38.0M
Threshold: EPS < $4.29[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $416 below SMA200 $454[FMP], if rejection continues, $386[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 3 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$546
12-month median target price (+31.2% gap to the analyst consensus median)
24
BUY
1
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$386
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$414 - 50-day MA (above, +0.4%)
$454 - 200-day MA (below, -8.4%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - SPGI Q1 FY27
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $4.42[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $38.0M". Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Oct 29, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Oct 30, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Dec 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Jan 29, 2027EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the SPGI earnings preview cover?

This S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in SPGI earnings?

S&P Global Inc. (SPGI): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

S&P Global Inc. (SPGI): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

S&P Global Inc. (SPGI): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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