5 analysts' median target is $105[FMP target], stock is $94, +11.3% upside potential. After Q4 +3.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +1.1%.
C+ = MoonshotScore 33[9-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $4.1B[FMP est], EPS $1.48[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q4 EPS +3.2% beat[FMP] but the stock +1.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Karen L. Sedgwick promised $3.4B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Karen L. Sedgwick capex transcript].
Watchlist
2030 Eps Outlook
2030_eps_outlook
Sempra is affirming its full year 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30, introducing its full year 2027 EPS guidance range of $5.10 to $5.70, and issuing a 2030 EPS outlook of $6.70 to $7.50.
"Today, Sempra is affirming our full year 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30, introducing our full year 2027 EPS guidance range of $5.10 to $5.70, and issuing a 2030 EPS outlook of $6.70 to $7.50. With today's update, we believe we have one of the highest projected growth rates in the sector, and our 2030 outlook shows that our strong long-term growth expectations continue through the end of the decade."
- Karen L. Sedgwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 26, 2026
Sempra Texas Rate Base Growth
sempra_texas_rate_base_growth
Sempra Texas rate base is projected to grow at a remarkable 18% CAGR over the plan period.
"Sempra Texas rate base is projected to grow at a remarkable 18% CAGR over the plan period"
- Karen L. Sedgwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 26, 2026
Oncor Transmission Capex
oncor_transmission_capex
Nearly 70% of Oncor's planned CapEx is dedicated towards transmission.
"Consequently, nearly 70% of Oncor's planned CapEx is dedicated towards transmission."
- Karen L. Sedgwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 26, 2026
Sempra Infrastructure Sale
sempra_infrastructure_sale
The sale of a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners for $10 billion implies over a $22 billion equity value, and the transaction is expected to close in 2026.
"In September, we announced the sale of a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners for $10 billion, implying over a $22 billion equity value. We are pleased to recognize the significant value created on behalf of our shareholders at an attractive multiple, and we continue to expect to close that transaction in 2026, subject to closing conditions."
- Jeffrey Walker Martin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 26, 2026
2026 2030 Capital Plan
2026-2030_capital_plan
Sempra announced a record capital plan of $65 billion for the 2026 to 2030 period, with 95% targeted for utility investments.
"We are excited to announce our 2026 to 2030 capital plan totaling $65 billion, an increase of $9 billion over last year's plan. In support of our mission, 95% of Sempra's overall capital program is targeted for utility investments."
- Karen L. Sedgwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 26, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Ray Dalio), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q4 (February 26, 2026): EPS $1.28 vs $1.24 est[FMP], +3.2% beat. D+1 movement: +1.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q4: EPS $1.28 vs $1.24 beat[FMP], stock +1.1% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.
Q4 CapEx $3.4B[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 29.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.48[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $3.4B"[Karen L. Sedgwick]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This SRE (SRE) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.