12 analysts' median target is $565[FMP target], stock is $727, -22.3% upside potential. After Q2 +16.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +11.1%.
B = MoonshotScore 64[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $3.5B[FMP est], EPS $5.04[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +16.8% beat[FMP] but the stock +11.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Gianluca Romano promised $161.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q2 earnings call[Gianluca Romano capex transcript].
Watchlist
March Quarter Guidance
march_quarter_guidance
Seagate expects March quarter revenue to be in the range of $2.9 billion, driven by a strong demand environment.
"We expect March quarter revenue to be in the range of $2.9 billion, plus or minus $100 million, which represent a 34% year-over-year improvement as a midpoint."
- Gianluca Romano - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 27, 2026
Gross Margin Expansion
gross_margin_expansion
Seagate's non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 42.2%, driven by the execution of pricing strategy and growing adoption of high capacity products.
"Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 42.2% in the December quarter up from 40.1% in the prior period."
- Gianluca Romano - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 27, 2026
Nearline Capacity Allocation
nearline_capacity_allocation
Seagate's nearline capacity is fully allocated through calendar year 2026, and they expect to begin accepting orders for the first half of calendar year 2027.
"Our nearline capacity is fully allocated through calendar year 2026, and we expect to begin accepting orders for the first half of calendar year 2027 in the coming months."
- William Mosley - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 27, 2026
Datacenter Demand
datacenter_demand
The data center market accounted for 87% of shipment volume, with both cloud and enterprise customers transitioning to higher capacity drives.
"The data center market accounted for 87% of our shipment volume, supported by ongoing demand momentum from global cloud customers and sequential growth across the enterprise OEM markets."
- Gianluca Romano - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 27, 2026
Record Breaking Quarter
record_breaking_quarter
Seagate closed out a record-breaking quarter, driven by sequential revenue growth across nearly all end markets.
"Seagate closed out calendar 2025, with a record-breaking quarter, driven by sequential revenue growth across nearly all end markets."
- William Mosley - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 27, 2026
Hamr Shipments
hamr_shipments
Seagate's quarterly HAMR shipments exceeded 1.5 million units and have continued to ramp.
"And by year's end, quarterly HAMR shipments exceeded 1.5 million units and have continued to ramp."
- William Mosley - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 27, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 3 bearish (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger), 1 neutral (Ray Dalio).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, but price is high.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (January 27, 2026): EPS $4.10 vs $3.51 est[FMP], +16.8% beat. D+1 movement: +11.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $4.10 vs $3.51 beat[FMP], stock +11.1% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $161.0M[FMP cashflow]. Gianluca Romano Q2 transcript: "We invested $116 million in capital expenditures for the December quarter or roughly 4% of revenue."[Gianluca Romano transcript]. Q2 op margin 32.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"We invested $116 million in capital expenditures for the December quarter or roughly 4% of revenue."
- Gianluca Romano, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 27, 2026
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $5.04[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $161.0M"[Gianluca Romano]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This STX (STX) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.