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The TJX Companies, Inc.
TJX - NYSE - $150.26 ▲ +%0.91
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Earnings
Wed 20 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-20 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.
TJX opens the
books on Wednesday evening.
1 analysts' median target is $170[FMP target], stock is $150, +13.1% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +2.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +1.8%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
HOLD
Council 2/6
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Moonshot 57
B = MoonshotScore 57[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Quick AnswerThe TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)
Q4 consensus: revenue $14.0B[FMP est], EPS $1.00[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$1.00
EPS Estimate
Last year $1.23 - +9% YoY YoY
-
Marmaxx Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
8
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters
Q2 EPS +2.9% beat[FMP] but the stock +1.8% D+1[FMP D+1].
Profit Margin Increase
profit_margin_increase
TJX's second quarter pre-tax profit margin of 11.4% was up 50 basis points versus last year and well above plan.
"Second quarter pre-tax profit margin of 11.4% was up 50 basis points versus last year and well above our plan."
- John Klinger - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 20, 2025
Comp Sales Growth
comp_sales_growth
TJX reported a better-than-expected consolidated comp sales increase of 4% in the second quarter, driven by increased customer transactions in every division.
"Overall, comp sales for the second quarter exceeded our expectations, increasing 4% and were strong across all of our divisions. Customer transactions were up at every division and drove our overall comp sales increase."
- Ernie Herrman - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 20, 2025
Tjx International Growth
tjx_international_growth
TJX International reported a very strong comp sales increase of 5%, driven by sales strength in Europe and outstanding sales in Australia.
"At TJX International, comp sales increased a very strong 5%. Once again, we're very pleased to see sales strength in Europe and outstanding sales in Australia."
- John Klinger - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 20, 2025
Inventory Increase
inventory_increase
TJX increased balance sheet inventory by 14% and inventory per store by 10%, buying into excellent opportunities for quality, branded merchandise seen in the marketplace.
"Balance sheet inventory was up 14%, and inventory on a per-store basis was up 10% versus last year, as we've been buying into the excellent opportunities for quality, branded merchandise we've been seeing in the marketplace."
- John Klinger - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 20, 2025
Marmaxx Performance
marmaxx_performance
Marmaxx saw strong comp sales growth of 3%, driven by strength in store performance across all income demographics.
"At Marmaxx, comp sales grew a strong 3%. A combination of a higher average basket and an increase in customer transactions drove the comp increase. It was great to see strength in our store performance across all income demographics, which speaks to our broad-based appeal of our values."
- John Klinger - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 20, 2025
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
57 / 100
multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Gross Margin weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0
Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+35.3%)
Gross Margin3.0
Q4: average margin (30.9%)
Operating Leverage1.0
op margin average (13.3%)
Cash Runway10.0
FCF very strong ($2.6B, 5.6x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0
low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0
RSI 34.4 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment9.0
strong buy consensus (90%)
Council Score
2 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +13.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 34
Klarman value - target upside +13.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +13.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued
Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
34.4
RSI 34.4 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-4.70
price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$158
stock 4.7% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$149
stock 0.8% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-25%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$170
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$150
Pre-earnings position
Support
$127
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$127-$170 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
The beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.92 vs $0.92 est - -1.1%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$1.10 vs $1.01 est - -0.5%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$1.28 vs $1.23 est - +1.5%
BEAT
Q4 FY26
$1.43 vs $1.39 est - +1.8%
Q2 (August 20, 2025): EPS $1.43 vs $1.39 est[FMP], +2.9% beat. D+1 movement: +1.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $0.97 (no guidance)
Q2: EPS $1.43 vs $1.39 beat[FMP], stock +1.8% D+1[FMP].
"-"
- John Klinger, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 20, 2025
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $468.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 13.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"-"
- John Klinger, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 20, 2025
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.00 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.00[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $170[FMP target]; high target $193[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.00 + CapEx < $468.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.00[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $468.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $150[FMP] and median $170[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.97 or CapEx >= $468.0M
Threshold: EPS < $0.97[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $150 below SMA200 $149[FMP], if rejection continues, $127[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 1 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$170
12-month median target price (+13.1% gap to the analyst consensus median)
Risk Management
$127
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$158 - 50-day MA (below, -4.7%)
$149 - 200-day MA (above, +0.8%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - TJX Q4 FY26
B
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.00[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $468.0M". Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
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Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card. Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
May 20, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 21, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 4, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 20, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the TJX earnings preview cover?
This The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in TJX earnings?
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.