Texas Pacific Land Corporation
TPL - NYSE - $394.20 ▼ -%1.22
-
Earnings Wed 5 Aug

Texas opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

1 analysts' median target is $639[FMP target], stock is $394, +62.1% upside potential. After Q1 +2.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -4.9%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 4/6 - Moonshot 69

B+ = MoonshotScore 69[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $264.0M[FMP est], EPS $2.39[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.39 EPS Estimate Last year $2.07 - +42% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +2.0% beat[FMP] but the stock -4.9% D+1[FMP D+1]. Chris Steddum promised $7.3M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Chris Steddum capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

37,001 Investor Focus

Royalty Production

royalty_production

Oil and gas royalty production averaged approximately 37,001 barrels of oil equivalent per day, roughly flat sequentially and up roughly 19% year over year.

"Oil and gas royalty production averaged approximately 37,001 barrels of oil equivalent per day, roughly flat sequentially and up roughly 19% year over year."

- Tyler Glover, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
10 Investor Focus

Commodity Price Sensitivity

commodity_price_sensitivity

Every $10 per barrel increase in oil realizations would equate to approximately $50 million.

"Using our royalty production volumes for fiscal year 2025 as an illustrative guide, roughly 5 million barrels of annual oil production means that every $10 per barrel increase in oil realizations would equate to approximately $50 million."

- Chris Steddum, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
- Investor Focus

Record Revenue

record_revenue

Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated record quarterly total revenue, net income, and free cash flow in Q1 2026.

"Texas Pacific Land Corporation's first quarter 2026 marked a strong start to the year as Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated record quarterly total revenue, net income, and free cash flow."

- Tyler Glover, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
- Investor Focus

Water Segment Performance

water_segment_performance

In our water segment, both water sales and produced water royalties are the second-best volume numbers in our history.

"In our water segment, both water sales and produced water royalties are the second-best volume numbers in our history."

- Tyler Glover, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
- Investor Focus

Unhedged Commodity Position

unhedged_commodity_position

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is fully exposed to the direct upside from elevated oil prices with its unhedged commodity position.

"Today, with our unhedged commodity position, we are fully exposed to the direct upside from elevated oil prices."

- Tyler Glover, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 69 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. R&D Intensity weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+26.3%)
Gross Margin8.0Q1: very high margin (82.1%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage8.0op margin very strong (77.0%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.2B, 21.0x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 31.2 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment5.0majority buy (50%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +62.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 31
Klarman value - target upside +62.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +62.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
31.2 RSI 31.2 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-16.40 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$472 stock 16.4% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$360 stock 9.4% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+0% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$639
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$394
Pre-earnings position
Support
$306
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$306-$639 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Texas's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q2 FY25
$1.68 vs $1.83 est - -8.7%
MISS
Q3 FY25
$1.76 vs $1.92 est - +10.0%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.79 vs $1.79 est - +10.4%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.07 vs $2.03 est - -4.9%

Q1 (May 7, 2026): EPS $2.07 vs $2.03 est[FMP], +2.0% beat. D+1 movement: -4.9%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.32 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $2.07 vs $2.03 beat[FMP], stock -4.9% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $7.3M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 77.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $2.39 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.39[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $639[FMP][FMP target]; high target $639 upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.39 + CapEx < $7.3M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.39[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $7.3M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $394[FMP] and median $639[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.32 or CapEx >= $7.3M
Threshold: EPS < $2.32[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $394 below SMA200 $360[FMP], if rejection continues, $306[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 1 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$639
12-month median target price (+62.1% upside potential)
1
BUY
0
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$306
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$472 - 50-day MA (below, -16.4%)
$360 - 200-day MA (above, +9.4%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - TPL Q1 FY27
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $2.39[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $7.3M"[Chris Steddum]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days TPL dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 5, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 6, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 19, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 5, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the TPL earnings preview cover?

This TPL (TPL) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in TPL earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.