Targa Resources Corp.
TRGP - NYSE - $259.72 ▲ +%0.29
-
Earnings Thu 7 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Targa opens the
books on Thursday evening.

8 analysts' median target is $236[FMP target], stock is $260, -9.1% upside potential. After Q4 +9.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +3.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
SELL Council 2/6 - Moonshot 44

B = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $4.7B[FMP est], EPS $2.56[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.56 EPS Estimate Last year $2.51 - +181% YoY YoY
3 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 3 quarters

Q4 EPS +9.1% beat[FMP] but the stock +3.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. William Byers promised $963.2M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[William Byers capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

5.4 Expectation / Guide

Adjusted Ebitda Guidance

adjusted_ebitda_guidance

Targa estimates full year adjusted EBITDA to be between $5.4 billion and $5.6 billion for 2026, an 11% increase over 2025 based on the midpoint of our range.

"We estimate full year adjusted EBITDA to be between $5.4 billion and $5.6 billion for 2026, an 11% increase over 2025 based on the midpoint of our range."

- William Byers, Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
2026 Investor Focus

Permian Volume Growth

permian_volume_growth

Targa Resources anticipates low double-digit Permian volume growth in 2026, consistent with previous commentary.

"We are almost 2 months into 2026, and our momentum continues as we estimate another year of low double-digit Permian volume growth. Our expectations for 2026 are consistent with our previous commentary and our outlook for '27 and beyond has only improved."

- Matt Meloy, Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
2.5 Investor Focus

Growth Capital Spending

growth_capital_spending

Targa expects multiyear growth capital spending to average around $2.5 billion annually post Speedway in a high single-digit to low double-digit Targa Permian volume growth environment.

"In a high single-digit to low double-digit Targa Permian volume growth environment or about 3 plants per year, we would expect multiyear growth capital spending to average around $2.5 billion annually post Speedway."

- Matt Meloy, Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
2 Investor Focus

New Projects And Capacity

new_projects_and_capacity

Targa announced a new Delaware processing plant, Yeti II, and its 13th fractionator in Mont Belvieu, and ordered long lead items for 2 additional plants in the Permian planned for early 2028.

"So with this outlook for strong volume growth, we are announcing 2 new projects today, our next Delaware processing plant, Yeti II and our 13th fractionator in Mont Belvieu. We are also ordering long lead items for 2 additional plants in the Permian planned for early 2028."

- Matt Meloy, Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 44 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Price Momentum and News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q4 vs Q1: growth negative (-16.4%, contraction)
Gross Margin4.0Q4: average margin (43.1%)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (22.6%)
Cash Runway6.0FCF positive but absorbed ($0.5B vs $1.0B CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 66.9 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (91%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 2 bearish (Klarman, Munger), 2 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -9.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 67
Klarman value - target upside -9.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside -9.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
66.9 RSI 66.9 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+7.30 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$242 stock 7.3% above - short-term support
200d MA
$192 stock 35.6% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-12% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$236
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$260
Pre-earnings position
Support
$163
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$163-$236 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Targa's last 8 quarters: 3 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q1 FY25
$0.91 vs $1.98 est - -0.3%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.87 vs $1.86 est - -1.1%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.20 vs $2.11 est - +4.4%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.51 vs $2.30 est - +3.2%

Q4 (February 19, 2026): EPS $2.51 vs $2.30 est[FMP], +9.1% beat. D+1 movement: +3.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.48 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $2.51 vs $2.30 beat[FMP], stock +3.2% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $963.2M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 22.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.56 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.56[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $236[FMP target]; high target $268[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.56 + CapEx < $963.2M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.56[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $963.2M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $260[FMP] and median $236[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.48 or CapEx >= $963.2M
Threshold: EPS < $2.48[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $260 below SMA200 $192[FMP], if rejection continues, $163[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 8 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$236
12-month median target price (-9.1% upside potential)
20
BUY
2
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$163
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$242 - 50-day MA (above, +7.3%)
$192 - 200-day MA (above, +35.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - TRGP Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.56[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $963.2M"[William Byers]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days TRGP dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 7, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 8, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 21, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 7, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the TRGP earnings preview cover?

This TRGP (TRGP) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in TRGP earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.