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Textron Inc.
TXT - NYSE - $91.01 (as of ) ▼ -0.63%
-
Earnings Thu 23 Jul
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-07-23 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Textron Inc. (TXT) Q2 FY26 earnings preview — archived, published May 9, 2026

The median of 3 price targets is $109[FMP target], stock is $91, +19.8% vs the analyst consensus median. Q1 FY26 EPS $1.45 vs $1.30 estimate: beat (+11.5%)[FMP earnings]. Stock move on D+1: -1.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds ·
A-
Council 2/6 - Historical V1 score 21

A- — FMP rating [FMP ratings]. Form 4: unavailable[FMP Form 4].

Quick Answer

Textron Inc. (TXT) Q2 consensus: revenue $3.8B[FMP est], EPS $1.56[FMP est]. 6 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$1.56 EPS Estimate Last year $1.55 - +1% YoY
6 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 6 quarters

Q1 FY26 EPS $1.45 vs $1.30 estimate: beat (+11.5%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: -1.3%[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

4x Investor Focus

Aviation Backlog Growth

aviation_backlog_growth

Textron Aviation has increased its backlog by more than 4x since pre-COVID from $1.7 billion in 2019 to $8 billion at the end of this quarter.

"Textron Aviation is in a very strong position having increased its backlog by more than 4x since pre-COVID from $1.7 billion in 2019 to $8 billion at the end of this quarter."

- Lisa Atherton, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$12 Investor Focus

New Textron Revenue Profit

new_textron_revenue_profit

New Textron would have approximately $12 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in segment profit.

"New Textron would have approximately $12 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in segment profit as a pure-play company."

- Lisa Atherton, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
10% Investor Focus

Aviation Aftermarket Growth

aviation_aftermarket_growth

We also saw strong aftermarket performance, which resulted in 10% growth in aftermarket revenues.

"We also saw strong aftermarket performance, which resulted in 10% growth in aftermarket revenues."

- Lisa Atherton, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
12 Investor Focus

Industrial Segment Separation

industrial_segment_separation

Textron plans to separate its A&D businesses and the industrial segment, targeting completion of the separation within 12 to 18 months.

"We will work through alternatives on the approach over the coming quarters and are targeting a completion of the separation within 12 to 18 months."

- Lisa Atherton, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$2.3 Investor Focus

Mv75 Cheyenne Funding

mv75_cheyenne_funding

The Trump administration's 2027 budget calls for $2.3 billion of funding for 2027 scaling to $3.8 billion in FY '31 across research, development, test and evaluation as well as procurement for the MV-75 Cheyenne program.

"As this relates to the MV-75 Cheyenne, the Future Years Defense Program, or FYDP, calls for $2.3 billion of funding for 2027 scaling to $3.8 billion in FY '31 across research, development, test and evaluation as well as procurement."

- Lisa Atherton, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
37 Investor Focus

Aviation Jet Turboprop Deliveries

aviation_jet_turboprop_deliveries

We got off to a strong start to the year with 37 jet deliveries and 35 commercial turboprop deliveries.

"We got off to a strong start to the year with 37 jet deliveries and 35 commercial turboprop deliveries."

- Lisa Atherton, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 6 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +19.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 49
Klarman value - target upside +19.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +19.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
49.5 RSI 49.5 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-0.50 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$91 stock 0.5% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$87 stock 4.8% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-18% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$109
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$91
Pre-earnings position
Support
$74
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$74-$109 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

4 quarters shown.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.55 vs $1.45 est · Next-day price move: -1.8%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.55 vs $1.46 est · Next-day price move: +2.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.73 vs $1.70 est · Next-day price move: +1.2%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.45 vs $1.30 est · Next-day price move: -1.3%

Q1 FY26 (April 30, 2026) EPS $1.45 vs $1.30 estimate: beat (+11.5%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: -1.3%[FMP D+1].

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.51 (no guidance)

Q1 FY26 EPS $1.45 vs $1.30 estimate: beat (+11.5%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: -1.3%[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $133.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 6.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q2 EPS > $1.56 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.56[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $109[FMP target]; high target $110[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.56 + CapEx < $133.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.56[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $133.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $91[FMP] and median $109[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.51 or CapEx >= $133.0M
Threshold: EPS < $1.51[FMP estx0.97].
Current price $91 — above SMA200 $87 [FMP].

Market Outlook

What do analysts say? 3 price targets · 18 ratings

Wall Street Consensus
$109
12-month median target price (+19.8% gap to the analyst consensus median)
6
BUY
12
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$74
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$91 - 50-day MA (below, -0.5%)
$87 - 200-day MA (above, +4.8%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - TXT Q2 FY26
A-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q2 EPS threshold $1.56[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $133.0M". Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 23, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 24, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Aug 13, 2026 – Aug 18, 2026FILING10-Q due within 40–45 days of quarter end (by Aug 13, 2026 – Aug 18, 2026); the exact deadline depends on filer status
~Oct 23, 2026EARNINGSQ3 FY26 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the TXT Q2 FY26 earnings preview cover?

This Textron Inc. (TXT) Q2 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in TXT Q2 FY26 earnings?

Textron Inc. (TXT): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Textron Inc. (TXT): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

Textron Inc. (TXT): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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