Textron Inc.
TXT - NYSE - $91.01 ▼ -%0.63
-
Earnings Thu 23 Jul

Textron opens the
books on Thursday evening.

3 analysts' median target is $109[FMP target], stock is $91, +19.8% upside potential. After Q1 +11.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
BUY Council 2/6 - Moonshot 21

A- = MoonshotScore 21[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $3.8B[FMP est], EPS $1.56[FMP est]. 6 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.56 EPS Estimate Last year $1.73 - +1% YoY YoY
6 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 6 quarters

Q1 EPS +11.5% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. David Rosenberg promised $133.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[David Rosenberg capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

4x Investor Focus

Aviation Backlog Growth

aviation_backlog_growth

Textron Aviation has increased its backlog by more than 4x since pre-COVID from $1.7 billion in 2019 to $8 billion at the end of this quarter.

"Textron Aviation is in a very strong position having increased its backlog by more than 4x since pre-COVID from $1.7 billion in 2019 to $8 billion at the end of this quarter."

- Lisa Atherton, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$12 Investor Focus

New Textron Revenue Profit

new_textron_revenue_profit

New Textron would have approximately $12 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in segment profit.

"New Textron would have approximately $12 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in segment profit as a pure-play company."

- Lisa Atherton, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
10% Investor Focus

Aviation Aftermarket Growth

aviation_aftermarket_growth

We also saw strong aftermarket performance, which resulted in 10% growth in aftermarket revenues.

"We also saw strong aftermarket performance, which resulted in 10% growth in aftermarket revenues."

- Lisa Atherton, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
12 Investor Focus

Industrial Segment Separation

industrial_segment_separation

Textron plans to separate its A&D businesses and the industrial segment, targeting completion of the separation within 12 to 18 months.

"We will work through alternatives on the approach over the coming quarters and are targeting a completion of the separation within 12 to 18 months."

- Lisa Atherton, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$2.3 Investor Focus

Mv75 Cheyenne Funding

mv75_cheyenne_funding

The Trump administration's 2027 budget calls for $2.3 billion of funding for 2027 scaling to $3.8 billion in FY '31 across research, development, test and evaluation as well as procurement for the MV-75 Cheyenne program.

"As this relates to the MV-75 Cheyenne, the Future Years Defense Program, or FYDP, calls for $2.3 billion of funding for 2027 scaling to $3.8 billion in FY '31 across research, development, test and evaluation as well as procurement."

- Lisa Atherton, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
37 Investor Focus

Aviation Jet Turboprop Deliveries

aviation_jet_turboprop_deliveries

We got off to a strong start to the year with 37 jet deliveries and 35 commercial turboprop deliveries.

"We got off to a strong start to the year with 37 jet deliveries and 35 commercial turboprop deliveries."

- Lisa Atherton, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 21 / 100

9-pillar methodology. - strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-0.6%, contraction)
Gross Margin1.0Q1: low margin (8.7%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (6.1%)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-0.3B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (-0.9%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 49.5 balanced, 50d below
News Sentiment3.0mixed (33% buy)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +19.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 49
Klarman value - target upside +19.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +19.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
49.5 RSI 49.5 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-0.50 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$91 stock 0.5% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$87 stock 4.8% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-18% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$109
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$91
Pre-earnings position
Support
$74
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$74-$109 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Textron's last 8 quarters: 6 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.55 vs $1.45 est - -1.8%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.55 vs $1.46 est - +2.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.73 vs $1.70 est - +1.2%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.45 vs $1.30 est - -1.3%

Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $1.45 vs $1.30 est[FMP], +11.5% beat. D+1 movement: -1.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.51 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.45 vs $1.30 beat[FMP], stock -1.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $133.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 6.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.56 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.56[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $109[FMP target]; high target $110[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.56 + CapEx < $133.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.56[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $133.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $91[FMP] and median $109[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.51 or CapEx >= $133.0M
Threshold: EPS < $1.51[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $91 below SMA200 $87[FMP], if rejection continues, $74[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 3 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$109
12-month median target price (+19.8% upside potential)
6
BUY
12
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$74
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$91 - 50-day MA (below, -0.5%)
$87 - 200-day MA (above, +4.8%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - TXT Q4 FY26
A-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.56[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $133.0M"[David Rosenberg]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 23, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 24, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 6, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 23, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the TXT earnings preview cover?

This TXT (TXT) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in TXT earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.