Tyler Technologies, Inc.
TYL - NYSE - $324.58 ▼ -%1.96
-
Earnings Wed 29 Jul

Tyler opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

12 analysts' median target is $450[FMP target], stock is $325, +38.6% upside potential. After Q1 +2.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -4.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 53

B+ = MoonshotScore 53[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $648.5M[FMP est], EPS $3.23[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$3.23 EPS Estimate Last year $2.64 - +11% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +2.7% beat[FMP] but the stock -4.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Brian Miller promised $3.2M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Brian Miller capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

3 Investor Focus

Cross Sell Opportunity

cross_sell_opportunity

Tyler Technologies aims to increase the average number of products per customer from 3 to 10-12, leveraging its strategic initiatives to achieve this goal.

"Yes, Rob, I'd actually say we're looking for 3 products -- average of 3 to go to 10 to 12, not 7 to 8, but I'm not going to quibble."

- H. Moore - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$30 million Investor Focus

Ftr Acquisition Impact

ftr_acquisition_impact

The acquisition of For The Record (FTR) will increase Tyler Technologies' revenue guidance by approximately $30 million and contribute a modest amount to EPS.

"FTR adds somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million of revenues to the full year and a modest amount to EPS."

- Brian Miller - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
- Investor Focus

Ai Tailwind

ai_tailwind

While AI is a tailwind for Tyler Technologies, it's not a big one at this point; however, the company is making the right investments and partnering with clients.

"As it relates to AI, I think it's a tailwind. I wouldn't say it's a big tailwind at this point. We have a lot of AI initiatives going. We've got AI in a lot of our products. It's embedded in our workflows."

- H. Moore - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
- Investor Focus

Ai Product Ramp

ai_product_ramp

Tyler Technologies expects a slower ramp to market for its AI products, as the public sector generally moves slower than the private sector.

"But I would generally say it's going to be a slower ramp. Our sector generally moves a little slower than the private sector."

- H. Moore - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
- Investor Focus

Saas Transition Confidence

saas_transition_confidence

Tyler Technologies has high confidence in its SaaS transition, with increasing customer receptiveness to moving to the cloud.

"I'd say my confidence level in our cloud transition, both in terms of customers flipping to the cloud and what we're doing from an operational perspective are really high."

- H. Moore - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 53 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and R&D Intensity strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth1.0Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+2.9%, below threshold)
Gross Margin5.0Q1: average margin (48.3%)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (16.3%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.1B, 32.1x CapEx)
R&D Intensity7.0balanced R&D investment (9.1%)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 43.4 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (82%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +38.6%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 43
Klarman value - target upside +38.6%
Buffett quality - ROE score 3/5
Munger valuation - target upside +38.6%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
43.4 RSI 43.4 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-5.10 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$342 stock 5.1% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$445 stock 27.1% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-42% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$450
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$325
Pre-earnings position
Support
$378
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$378-$450 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Tyler's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.91 vs $2.77 est - +5.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.97 vs $2.86 est - +0.0%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$2.64 vs $2.71 est - -15.4%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$3.09 vs $3.01 est - -4.2%

Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $3.09 vs $3.01 est[FMP], +2.7% beat. D+1 movement: -4.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.13 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $3.09 vs $3.01 beat[FMP], stock -4.2% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $3.2M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 16.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $3.23 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.23[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $450[FMP target]; high target $550[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.23 + CapEx < $3.2M
Threshold: EPS approx $3.23[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $3.2M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $325[FMP] and median $450[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.13 or CapEx >= $3.2M
Threshold: EPS < $3.13[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $325 below SMA200 $445[FMP], if rejection continues, $378[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 12 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$450
12-month median target price (+38.6% upside potential)
18
BUY
4
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$378
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$342 - 50-day MA (below, -5.1%)
$445 - 200-day MA (below, -27.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - TYL Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.23[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $3.2M"[Brian Miller]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days TYL dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 29, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 30, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 12, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 29, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the TYL earnings preview cover?

This TYL (TYL) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in TYL earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.