United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
UAL - NASDAQ - $99.58 ▼ -%0.12
-
Earnings Wed 15 Jul

United opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

5 analysts' median target is $136[FMP target], stock is $100, +36.1% upside potential. After Q1 +10.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -5.6%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A
BUY Council 5/6 - Moonshot 51

A = MoonshotScore 51[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $17.6B[FMP est], EPS $1.80[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.80 EPS Estimate Last year $3.10 - -53% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +10.2% beat[FMP] but the stock -5.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Mike Leskinen promised $1.7B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Mike Leskinen capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

2026 Expectation / Guide

Full Year Eps Guidance

full_year_eps_guidance

United expects to deliver full year 2026 EPS in the $7 to $11 range.

"We expect to deliver full year 2026 EPS in the $7 to $11 range."

- Michael Leskinen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
$3.1 billion Investor Focus

Debt Reduction

debt_reduction

United paid down more than $3.1 billion in debt in Q1 and continues to march towards its goal of being investment grade.

"In the quarter, we took actions to make further progress towards this goal and paid down more than $3.1 billion in debt, unencumbering more assets by accelerating our repayment of $2 billion of our notes that were secured by our slots, gates and routes while also prepaying $400 million of near-term maturity or higher cost aircraft debt."

- Michael Leskinen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
13.6% Investor Focus

Premium Demand Strength

premium_demand_strength

United saw a 13.6% increase in premium revenues and an 8.9% increase in premium RASMs in Q1.

"Premium demand remains strong with Q1 premium revenues up 13.6% on 4.4% increase in capacity. Premium RASMs were up 8.9% year-over-year, leading main cabin by 4 points."

- Andrew Nocella, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
2% Investor Focus

Capacity Adjustment

capacity_adjustment

United is targeting capacity to be flat to up 2% for 3Q and 4Q on a year-over-year basis due to higher fuel prices.

"For United, that means we're targeting capacity to be flat to up 2% for 3Q and 4Q on a year-over-year basis."

- Scott Kirby, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
40% Investor Focus

Fuel Cost Recapture Q2

fuel_cost_recapture_q2

United expects to recover between 40% and 50% of the current increase in fuel cost in 2Q.

"And in 2Q, we expect to recover between 40% and 50% of the current increase."

- Andrew Nocella, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
100% Investor Focus

Fuel Cost Recovery

fuel_cost_recovery

United aims to recover 100% of the increase in jet fuel costs and achieve double-digit pretax margins in 2027.

"For United, here's how we're thinking about our goals to get to 100% pass-through and achieve double-digit margins in 2027."

- Scott Kirby, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 51 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-4.1%, contraction)
Gross Margin6.0Q1: high margin (63.3%)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (6.8%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF strong ($3.1B FCF, covers CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 57.7 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (92%)
Council Score 5 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +36.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 58
Klarman value - target upside +36.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +36.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
57.7 RSI 57.7 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+6.00 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$94 stock 6.0% above - short-term support
200d MA
$101 stock 1.3% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-34% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$136
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$100
Pre-earnings position
Support
$86
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$86-$136 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

United beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$3.87 vs $3.81 est - +3.1%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.78 vs $2.65 est - -5.6%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$3.10 vs $2.93 est - +2.2%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.19 vs $1.08 est - -5.6%

Q1 (April 22, 2026): EPS $1.19 vs $1.08 est[FMP], +10.2% beat. D+1 movement: -5.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.75 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.19 vs $1.08 beat[FMP], stock -5.6% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $1.7B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 6.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.80 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.80[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $136[FMP target]; high target $150[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.80 + CapEx < $1.7B
Threshold: EPS approx $1.80[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $1.7B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $100[FMP] and median $136[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.75 or CapEx >= $1.7B
Threshold: EPS < $1.75[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $100 below SMA200 $101[FMP], if rejection continues, $86[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 5 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$136
12-month median target price (+36.1% upside potential)
24
BUY
2
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$86
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$94 - 50-day MA (above, +6.0%)
$101 - 200-day MA (below, -1.3%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - UAL Q4 FY26
A

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.80[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.7B"[Mike Leskinen]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 15, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 16, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Aug 29, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 15, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the UAL earnings preview cover?

This UAL (UAL) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in UAL earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.