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27 analysts' median target is $491[FMP target], stock is $404, +21.5% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +29.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.6%.
B = MoonshotScore 41[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Quick AnswerUnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Q1 consensus: revenue $111.3B[FMP est], EPS $4.09[FMP est]. 4 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +29.1% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.6% D+1[FMP D+1].
Watchlist
Fy26 Guidance Share Repurchases
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The company has updated its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance to a range of $19.50 to $20 and now expects to complete at least $5 billion in share repurchases in 2026, significantly above the initial guidance of $2.5 billion.
"We're providing new adjusted earnings per share guidance range of $19.50 to $20, with slightly more earnings in 3Q relative to 4Q. ... We now expect to complete total share repurchases of at least $5 billion in 2026, compared to initial guidance of $2.5 billion."
- Wayne DeVeydt - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 16, 2026
Optum Health Ai Integration
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Optum Health is gaining positive momentum by re-centering on its integrated value-based care model, with AI-based ambient listening capabilities rolled out to 70% of employed providers and on track to exceed 90% by year-end 2026.
"Optum Health is intently focused on improving its clinical care and operational experience to better serve the 20 million people we care for through primary and specialist care, ambulatory surgery, and home health. ... There is real progress on the rollout of AI-based ambient listening capabilities, available to 70% of our employed providers today and on track to exceed 90% by year-end."
- Patrick Conway - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 16, 2026
Optum Rx Transparency
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Optum Rx is leading an industry-wide shift towards transparency and fee-based services, committing to pass through 100% of manufacturer rebates to customers by the end of 2027, with over 95% of clients expected to be on 100% pass-through by the end of 2026.
"This all builds on our industry-leading commitment last year to pass through 100% of manufacturer rebates to customers by the end of 2027. We are well on our way, as we expect to end 2026 with more than 95% of clients on 100% pass-through."
- Patrick Conway - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 16, 2026
Commercial Cost Trends
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Medical cost trends in the commercial business remain stubbornly high, running modestly above 11%, with full margin recovery delayed past 2027 due to the ineffective independent resolution process under the No Surprises Act and more aggressive provider billing practices.
"Commercial costs are stubbornly high, rising above expectations, which we believe is consistent with what is being experienced across the sector. ... In fact, it is the opposite, with medical cost trends modestly above 11% level we previously saw. ... The sticky nature of the persistent and elevated trend is extending the timeframe for full margin recovery past 2027, as we've previously discussed and you highlighted."
- Dan Kueter - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 16, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
multi-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (July 16, 2026): EPS $6.38 vs $4.94 est[FMP], +29.1% beat. D+1 movement: +0.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $6.38 vs $4.94 beat[FMP], stock +0.6% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $799.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 7.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $4.09[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $799.0M". Two anchors, three scenarios.
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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.