13 analysts' median target is $325[FMP target], stock is $292, +11.5% upside potential. After Q1 +22.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +1.9%.
B+ = MoonshotScore 37[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $2.1B[FMP est], EPS $2.66[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +22.7% beat[FMP] but the stock +1.9% D+1[FMP D+1]. Mary Andrews Carlisle promised $176.5M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Mary Andrews Carlisle capex transcript].
Watchlist
Full Year Ebitda Guidance
full_year_ebitda_guidance
Vulcan Materials continues to expect to deliver between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA for the full year, building on momentum from its solid start to the year.
"I am confident in our ability to remain focused on the things we can control and to drive durable growth in our aggregates-led business momentum from our solid start to the year and continue to expect to deliver between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA for the full year."
- Ronnie Pruitt, Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Adjusted Ebitda Growth
adjusted_ebitda_growth
Vulcan Materials reported $447 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026, a 9% increase over the prior year.
"We generated $447 million of adjusted EBITDA, a 9% increase over the prior year."
- Ronnie Pruitt, Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Aggregate Shipments Growth
aggregate_shipments_growth
Vulcan Materials reported a 5% increase in aggregate shipments in Q1, supporting anticipated return to growth for 2026.
"Aggregate shipments in the first quarter support the anticipated return to growth for 2026. Shipments increased 5% compared to the prior year due to both improving demand and fewer extreme weather days than in the prior year."
- Ronnie Pruitt, Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Data Center Demand Catalyst
data_center_demand_catalyst
Vulcan Materials anticipates data centers, with approximately 650 million square feet under construction or announced, to be a positive catalyst for future aggregates demand.
"With approximately 650 million square feet under construction or announced, we anticipate data centers and other related investments to be a positive catalyst for future aggregates demand."
- Ronnie Pruitt, Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Aggregate Pricing Improvement
aggregate_pricing_improvement
Vulcan Materials saw a 4% improvement in aggregates freight-adjusted price in Q1, with discussions underway for midyear increases.
"On a mix adjusted basis, aggregates freight-adjusted price improved 4% over the prior year's first quarter, in line with our expectations. The sequential growth from the prior quarter demonstrates the success of our January 1 price increases and discussions are already underway for midyear increases."
- Ronnie Pruitt, Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Public Infrastructure Demand
public_infrastructure_demand
Vulcan Materials is seeing trailing 12-month highway awards in its markets up 12% and public infrastructure awards up 17%, providing a solid foundation for shipments.
"Trailing 12-month highway awards in our markets are up 12% from a year ago, and public infrastructure awards are up 17% over the same time frame. These levels far outpaced the U.S. as a whole."
- Ronnie Pruitt, Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Price Momentum and News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $1.35 vs $1.10 est[FMP], +22.7% beat. D+1 movement: +1.9%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.35 vs $1.10 beat[FMP], stock +1.9% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $176.5M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 16.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.66[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $176.5M"[Mary Andrews Carlisle]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This VMC (VMC) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.