Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation
WAB - NYSE - $263.44 ▲ +%0.47
-
Earnings Thu 23 Jul

Westinghouse opens the
books on Thursday evening.

7 analysts' median target is $304[FMP target], stock is $263, +15.4% upside potential. After Q1 +8.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +3.0%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 56

B+ = MoonshotScore 56[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $3.1B[FMP est], EPS $2.63[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.63 EPS Estimate Last year $2.10 - +34% YoY YoY
3 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 3 quarters

Q1 EPS +8.0% beat[FMP] but the stock +3.0% D+1[FMP D+1]. John Olin promised $46.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[John Olin capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

17.8% Investor Focus

Transit Segment Growth

transit_segment_growth

Wabtec's Transit segment sales were up 17.8% to $835 million, with the acquisition of Dellner contributing to this growth.

"Transit segment sales were up 17.8% at $835 million. When adjusting for foreign currency Transit sales were up 11.0%. The acquisition of Dellner added a partial quarter of revenue, adding approximately 5.8 percentage points of sales growth."

- John Olin - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
13% Investor Focus

Multiyear Backlog Growth

multiyear_backlog_growth

Wabtec's multiyear backlog exceeded $30 billion, up 38%, providing strong visibility as the company executes against its strategy.

"Backlog remains a key strength. 12-month backlog was up 13% from the prior year, while the multiyear backlog exceeded $30 billion, up 38%."

- Rafael Santana - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
6.68 Investor Focus

Freight Segment Backlog

freight_segment_backlog

Wabtec's Freight segment's 12-month backlog was up 10.1%, while the multiyear backlog of $25.18 billion was up 41.0%.

"Finally, the Freight segment's 12-month backlog was $6.68 billion. Our 12-month backlog was up 10.1%, while the multiyear backlog of $25.18 billion was up 41.0%."

- John Olin - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
24,000 Investor Focus

2026 Railcar Demand

2026_railcar_demand

Wabtec notes that demand for new railcars in North America is expected to be approximately 24,000 cars for 2026, which is down 22% from 2025.

"Looking at the North American railcar build, demand for new railcars is down compared to the prior year and is projected to be approximately 24,000 cars for 2026, which is down 22% from 2025."

- Rafael Santana - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 56 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth5.0Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+9.0%)
Gross Margin4.0Q1: average margin (36.0%)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (17.5%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.2B, 3.3x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (2.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 52.9 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (82%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +15.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 53
Klarman value - target upside +15.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +15.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
52.9 RSI 52.9 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+3.20 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$255 stock 3.2% above - short-term support
200d MA
$220 stock 19.5% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-29% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$304
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$263
Pre-earnings position
Support
$187
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$187-$304 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Westinghouse's last 8 quarters: 3 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q2 FY25
$1.96 vs $2.17 est - -1.7%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.32 vs $2.28 est - +1.8%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.10 vs $2.08 est - -0.2%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.71 vs $2.51 est - +3.0%

Q1 (April 22, 2026): EPS $2.71 vs $2.51 est[FMP], +8.0% beat. D+1 movement: +3.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.55 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $2.71 vs $2.51 beat[FMP], stock +3.0% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $46.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 17.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.63 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.63[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $304[FMP target]; high target $318[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.63 + CapEx < $46.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.63[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $46.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $263[FMP] and median $304[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.55 or CapEx >= $46.0M
Threshold: EPS < $2.55[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $263 below SMA200 $220[FMP], if rejection continues, $187[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 7 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$304
12-month median target price (+15.4% upside potential)
9
BUY
2
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$187
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$255 - 50-day MA (above, +3.2%)
$220 - 200-day MA (above, +19.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - WAB Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.63[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $46.0M"[John Olin]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 23, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 24, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 6, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 23, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the WAB earnings preview cover?

This WAB (WAB) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in WAB earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.