Workday, Inc.
WDAY - NASDAQ - $127.83 ▼ -%2.33
-
Earnings Thu 21 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-21 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Workday opens the
books on Thursday evening.

19 analysts' median target is $195[FMP target], stock is $128, +52.5% upside potential. After Q2 +6.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +2.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 56

B = MoonshotScore 56[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.5B[FMP est], EPS $2.49[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.49 EPS Estimate Last year $1.92 - +12% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q2 EPS +6.5% beat[FMP] but the stock +2.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Zane C. Rowe promised $60.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Zane C. Rowe capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

8.815 Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Subscription Revenue Guidance

fy26_subscription_revenue_guidance

Workday is raising its FY '26 subscription revenue guidance to $8.815 billion, growth of 14%, incorporating the acquisition of Paradox.

"Following our first half momentum and incorporating the acquisition of Paradox, which we expect to close later in Q3, we're increasing our FY '26 subscription revenue guidance to $8.815 billion, growth of 14%."

- Zane C. Rowe, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 21, 2025
15% Expectation / Guide

Crpo Growth Q3 Guidance

crpo_growth_q3_guidance

Workday expects cRPO to increase between 15% and 16% in Q3. This does not include the impact of the Paradox acquisition.

"We expect cRPO to increase between 15% and 16% in Q3. This does not include the impact of the Paradox acquisition."

- Zane C. Rowe, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 21, 2025
2.235 Expectation / Guide

Q3 Subscription Revenue Guidance

q3_subscription_revenue_guidance

Workday expects Q3 FY '26 subscription revenue to be approximately $2.235 billion, also growth of 14%.

"We expect Q3 FY '26 subscription revenue to be approximately $2.235 billion, also growth of 14%."

- Zane C. Rowe, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 21, 2025
2.85 Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Operating Cash Flow Outlook

fy26_operating_cash_flow_outlook

Workday is increasing its FY '26 operating cash flow outlook to $2.85 billion, driven by the timing of cash tax payments as well as our operating performance for the year.

"We're increasing our FY '26 operating cash flow outlook to $2.85 billion, driven by the timing of cash tax payments as well as our operating performance for the year."

- Zane C. Rowe, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 21, 2025
29% Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Operating Margin Guidance

fy26_operating_margin_guidance

Workday is increasing its FY '26 non-GAAP operating margin to approximately 29%, reflecting ongoing efficiencies we are driving across the business.

"We're increasing our FY '26 non-GAAP operating margin to approximately 29%, reflecting ongoing efficiencies we are driving across the business."

- Zane C. Rowe, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 21, 2025
28% Expectation / Guide

Q3 Operating Margin Guidance

q3_operating_margin_guidance

Workday expects non-GAAP operating margin of 28% for Q3 FY '26.

"For Q3, we expect non-GAAP operating margin of 28%."

- Zane C. Rowe, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 21, 2025

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 56 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth7.0Q4 vs Q1: healthy growth (+13.0%)
Gross Margin8.0Q4: very high margin (75.9%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (12.0%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.2B, 20.3x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0very high R&D (28.1%, margin pressure risk)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 51.7 balanced, 50d below
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (61%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +52.5%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 52
Klarman value - target upside +52.5%
Buffett quality - ROE score 3/5
Munger valuation - target upside +52.5%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
51.7 RSI 51.7 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-1.10 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$129 stock 1.1% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$193 stock 33.8% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-6% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$195
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$128
Pre-earnings position
Support
$164
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$164-$195 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Workday, beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.23 vs $2.01 est - -12.5%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$2.21 vs $2.11 est - -2.8%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$2.32 vs $2.17 est - -7.9%
BEAT
Q4 FY26
$2.47 vs $2.32 est - +2.2%

Q2 (August 21, 2025): EPS $2.47 vs $2.32 est[FMP], +6.5% beat. D+1 movement: +2.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.42 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $2.47 vs $2.32 beat[FMP], stock +2.2% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $60.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 12.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.49 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.49[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $195[FMP target]; high target $298[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.49 + CapEx < $60.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.49[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $60.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $128[FMP] and median $195[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.42 or CapEx >= $60.0M
Threshold: EPS < $2.42[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $128 below SMA200 $193[FMP], if rejection continues, $164[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 19 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$195
12-month median target price (+52.5% upside potential)
25
BUY
16
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$164
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$129 - 50-day MA (below, -1.1%)
$193 - 200-day MA (below, -33.8%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - WDAY Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.49[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $60.0M"[Zane C. Rowe]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days WDAY dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 21, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 22, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 5, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 21, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the WDAY earnings preview cover?

This WDAY (WDAY) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in WDAY earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.