Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company
WTW - NASDAQ - $256.36 ▼ -%0.66
-
Earnings Thu 30 Jul

Willis opens the
books on Thursday evening.

12 analysts' median target is $338[FMP target], stock is $256, +31.8% upside potential. After Q1 +1.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 4/6 - Moonshot 33

B+ = MoonshotScore 33[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.4B[FMP est], EPS $3.16[FMP est]. 4 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$3.16 EPS Estimate Last year $8.12 - +10% YoY YoY
4 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 4 quarters

Q1 EPS +1.9% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Andrew Krasner promised $55.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Andrew Krasner capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

3% Investor Focus

Organic Growth Q1

organic_growth_q1

WTW reported 3% organic growth in the first quarter.

"In the first quarter, we delivered 3% organic growth with adjusted operating margin of 22.3% and $3.72 of adjusted diluted earnings per share."

- Carl A. Hess, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
2 Investor Focus

Ai Powered Operating System Implementation

ai_powered_operating_system_implementation

In Risk & Broking, following 2 successful pilots in the second half of 2025, we're implementing an AI-powered operating system across the business.

"In Risk & Broking, following 2 successful pilots in the second half of 2025, we're implementing an AI-powered operating system across the business."

- Carl A. Hess, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
2,500 Investor Focus

Rewards Ai Adoption

rewards_ai_adoption

Rewards AI, which applies generative AI to WTW's proprietary data for compensation benchmarking, now serves over 2,500 client users.

"For example, in HWC, Rewards AI, which applies generative AI to WTW's proprietary data for compensation benchmarking, now serves over 2,500 client users."

- Carl A. Hess, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
- Expectation / Guide

Hwc Growth Outlook

hwc_growth_outlook

WTW remains confident in HWC's full year outlook for mid-single-digit growth and continued margin expansion even with the headwinds from economic uncertainty and geopolitical pressure impacting parts of Career.

"We remain confident in HWC's full year outlook for mid-single-digit growth and continued margin expansion even with the headwinds from economic uncertainty and geopolitical pressure impacting parts of Career."

- Andrew Krasner, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
- Expectation / Guide

Crb Growth Outlook

crb_growth_outlook

WTW is narrowing its full year outlook for CRB organic growth to mid-single digits, reflecting the slower start to the year.

"However, reflecting the slower start to the year, we are narrowing our full year outlook for CRB organic growth to mid-single digits."

- Andrew Krasner, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
- Investor Focus

Newfront Tech Integration

newfront_tech_integration

Integrating Newfront's technology into WTW's environment will unlock significant growth and efficiency opportunities for the entire enterprise.

"We're now working at pace to integrate Newfront's technology into WTW's environment to create this intelligence platform that unlocks significant growth and efficiency opportunities for the entire enterprise."

- Eugene Lipkin - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 33 / 100

9-pillar methodology. - strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth3.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+6.7%)
Gross Margin2.0Q1: low margin (24.6%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (18.6%)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-0.1B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 31.7 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (64%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +31.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 32
Klarman value - target upside +31.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +31.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
31.7 RSI 31.7 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-10.70 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$287 stock 10.7% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$315 stock 18.7% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-6% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$338
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$256
Pre-earnings position
Support
$268
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$268-$338 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Willis's last 8 quarters: 4 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.86 vs $2.63 est - -0.3%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$3.07 vs $3.05 est - -1.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$8.12 vs $7.96 est - +1.4%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$3.72 vs $3.65 est - +0.1%

Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $3.72 vs $3.65 est[FMP], +1.9% beat. D+1 movement: +0.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.07 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $3.72 vs $3.65 beat[FMP], stock +0.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $55.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 18.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $3.16 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.16[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $338[FMP target]; high target $409[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.16 + CapEx < $55.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $3.16[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $55.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $256[FMP] and median $338[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.07 or CapEx >= $55.0M
Threshold: EPS < $3.07[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $256 below SMA200 $315[FMP], if rejection continues, $268[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 12 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$338
12-month median target price (+31.8% upside potential)
14
BUY
8
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$268
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$287 - 50-day MA (below, -10.7%)
$315 - 200-day MA (below, -18.7%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - WTW Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.16[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $55.0M"[Andrew Krasner]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days WTW dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 30, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 31, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 30, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the WTW earnings preview cover?

This WTW (WTW) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in WTW earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.