Xylem Inc.
XYL - NYSE - $113.74 ▼ -%1.64
-
Earnings Thu 30 Jul

Xylem opens the
books on Thursday evening.

13 analysts' median target is $158[FMP target], stock is $114, +38.9% upside potential. After Q1 +2.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 33

A- = MoonshotScore 33[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.3B[FMP est], EPS $1.35[FMP est]. 6 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.35 EPS Estimate Last year $1.42 - +7% YoY YoY
6 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 6 quarters

Q1 EPS +2.8% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. William Grogan promised $90.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[William Grogan capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$9.2 billion Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Revenue Guidance

fy26_revenue_guidance

Xylem updated its full year reported revenue to be $9.2 billion to $9.3 billion, which delivers revenue growth of 2% to 3%.

"Full year reported revenue is now expected to be $9.2 billion to $9.3 billion, up from the prior guide of $9.1 billion to $9.2 billion, which delivers revenue growth of 2% to 3%."

- William Grogan, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
22.9% Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Ebitda Margin Guidance

fy26_ebitda_margin_guidance

Xylem expects full year EBITDA margin to remain at 22.9% to 23.3%. This represents 70 basis points to 110 basis points of expansion versus the prior year, driven by productivity and price.

"EBITDA margin is expected to remain at 22.9% to 23.3%. This represents 70 basis points to 110 basis points of expansion versus the prior year, driven by productivity and price."

- William Grogan, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
1 Investor Focus

Applied Water Data Center Growth

applied_water_data_center_growth

Data center orders in Q1 exceeded the full year amount for all of 2025.

"Data center orders in Q1 exceeded the full year amount for all of 2025."

- William Grogan, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
$1.5 billion Investor Focus

Share Repurchase

share_repurchase

The company executed on $581 million in quarter 1 as part of a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization.

"In February, we announced a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization, executing on $581 million in quarter 1."

- Matthew Pine, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
$850 million Investor Focus

Wss Largest Order

wss_largest_order

WSS booked its largest order ever with an $850 million outsourced water contract delivered over 20 years.

"To that end, WSS booked our largest order ever this month, an outsourced water contract for $850 million delivered over 20 years."

- Matthew Pine, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 33 / 100

9-pillar methodology. - strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-7.6%, contraction)
Gross Margin4.0Q1: average margin (37.8%)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (11.5%)
Cash Runway5.0FCF under pressure ($0.0B FCF vs $0.1B CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (2.5%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 37.6 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (61%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +38.9%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 38
Klarman value - target upside +38.9%
Buffett quality - ROE score 3/5
Munger valuation - target upside +38.9%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
37.6 RSI 37.6 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-6.70 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$122 stock 6.7% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$136 stock 16.6% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-9% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$158
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$114
Pre-earnings position
Support
$116
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$116-$158 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Xylem's last 8 quarters: 6 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.26 vs $1.15 est - -1.7%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.37 vs $1.23 est - +1.6%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.42 vs $1.41 est - -1.7%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.12 vs $1.09 est - -2.1%

Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $1.12 vs $1.09 est[FMP], +2.8% beat. D+1 movement: -2.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.31 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.12 vs $1.09 beat[FMP], stock -2.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $90.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 11.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.35 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.35[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $158[FMP target]; high target $161[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.35 + CapEx < $90.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.35[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $90.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $114[FMP] and median $158[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.31 or CapEx >= $90.0M
Threshold: EPS < $1.31[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $114 below SMA200 $136[FMP], if rejection continues, $116[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 13 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$158
12-month median target price (+38.9% upside potential)
14
BUY
9
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$116
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$122 - 50-day MA (below, -6.7%)
$136 - 200-day MA (below, -16.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - XYL Q4 FY26
A-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.35[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $90.0M"[William Grogan]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 30, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 31, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 30, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the XYL earnings preview cover?

This XYL (XYL) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in XYL earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.