A systematic dual-momentum ranking of 15 major ETFs — US indexes, all 11 sectors, international markets, bonds and gold — refreshed from end-of-day market data. See which assets lead, which lag, and what the classic momentum rule currently ranks on top. Educational monitor, not investment advice.
S&P 500 trades +7.0% vs its 200-day average (50-day above 200-day). Data as of 2026-09-11.
Quick Answer
The ETF Rotation Monitor ranks 15 major ETFs by trailing 3-month return using the dual-momentum method: the top 3 qualify only while their momentum is positive, otherwise the slot defaults to cash. It is a transparent, math-only ranking refreshed from end-of-day data.
Top-3 ranked ETFs with positive momentum qualify; negative-momentum slots default to cash.
All 15 ETFs sorted by trailing 3-month return. Bars show momentum strength relative to the current leader.
This monitor visualizes a documented systematic rule for educational purposes. It is not investment advice and shows what the rule ranks — not what you should do. Momentum strategies can underperform for long periods.
Each ETF's trailing 63-trading-day (~3 month) return is computed from end-of-day closing prices — the lookback with the strongest academic evidence for relative-strength persistence.
All 15 ETFs are sorted by that return, strongest first. The basket spans US indexes, all 11 GICS sectors via SPDR funds, developed and emerging international markets, long Treasuries, and gold.
Only the top 3 qualify, and only while their trailing return is positive (absolute momentum). A negative-momentum leader is flagged as a cash slot instead — the rule's built-in defense against falling markets.
A separate risk-on / risk-off gauge compares the S&P 500's price to its 50- and 200-day moving averages, giving one honest headline for overall market conditions.
We aggregate and cross-verify data from multiple professional financial data providers. No single point of failure.
All data verified and cross-referenced. Not financial advice.
ETF rotation is a systematic approach that periodically ranks a fixed basket of ETFs by recent performance. Dual momentum, popularized by Gary Antonacci, combines two tests: relative momentum (rank all ETFs by trailing 3-month return and take the strongest) and absolute momentum (only keep a leader while its own trailing return is positive — otherwise that slot sits in cash). The combination historically reduced deep drawdowns compared with buy-and-hold in academic studies, though past results never guarantee future returns.
The basket holds 15 liquid, low-cost ETFs chosen to cover the whole market: SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (Nasdaq 100) and IWM (small caps) for US indexes; the SPDR sector funds XLK, XLF, XLE, XLV, XLY, XLI, XLP and XLU for the major GICS sectors; EFA and EEM for international developed and emerging markets; TLT for long-term Treasuries; and GLD for gold. ETFs do not delist the way single stocks do, so the ranking is free of survivorship bias.
The parameters are pre-specified rather than tuned: 63 trading days is roughly three months, the momentum window with the most consistent evidence in academic literature, and holding the top 3 balances concentration against diversification. Fixing the parameters in advance avoids curve-fitting — the temptation to keep adjusting settings until a backtest looks good, which usually fails in live markets.
The regime badge compares the S&P 500's latest price with its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Risk-on means price is above the 200-day average and the 50-day average is also above it — the classic definition of an uptrend. Risk-off means both conditions point down. Anything in between is labeled mixed. It is a slow, deliberately simple trend gauge, not a prediction.
No. The monitor is an educational visualization of a well-documented systematic rule. It shows what the rule currently ranks, not what you should buy or sell. Momentum strategies can underperform for long stretches, whipsaw in sideways markets, and generate taxable events. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before acting on any strategy.
Rankings are recomputed from end-of-day closing prices and cached for up to 12 hours, so the page reflects the most recent market close. The underlying dual-momentum rule is typically evaluated monthly by practitioners — daily moves rarely change the leaders, which is part of the strategy's appeal: it is slow by design and ignores intraday noise.
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