Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Analysis

Why this analysis is different

• A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

Vistra Corp. (VST) Utility Operations & Dividend Profile

Vistra Corp. is a leading integrated power company focused on retail electricity and power generation across the United States. Operating in diverse markets, Vistra manages a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities, serving millions of customers and navigating a dynamic energy landscape.

What Is the Investment Thesis for VST?

Vistra Corp. presents a compelling investment case centered on its integrated business model and diverse generation portfolio. With a market capitalization of $46.9B and a P/E ratio of 22.4, Vistra demonstrates financial stability. Key growth catalysts include the increasing demand for electricity and the expansion of renewable energy sources. The company's strategic focus on retail electricity and power generation, combined with its presence in multiple states, provides diversification and resilience. However, investors may want to evaluate the potential risks associated with commodity price volatility and regulatory changes in the energy sector. The company's dividend yield of 0.61% offers a modest income stream.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

VST Key Highlights

Market capitalization of $46.9B reflects Vistra's significant presence in the power generation and retail electricity market.

• Profit margin of 12.7% indicates efficient operations and profitability in a competitive industry.
• Serves approximately 4.3 million customers across 20 states and the District of Columbia, demonstrating a broad and diversified customer base.
• Generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts from a diverse portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities.
• Beta of 1.50 suggests higher volatility compared to the market, reflecting the dynamic nature of the energy sector.

Who Are VST's Competitors?

VST is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance

What Are VST's Key Strengths?

Diversified generation portfolio including natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage.

• Integrated business model with retail and generation operations.
• Large customer base of approximately 4.3 million customers.
• Strategic asset locations across multiple states.

What Are VST's Weaknesses?

Exposure to commodity price volatility.

• Dependence on regulatory approvals and policies.
• Potential environmental liabilities associated with fossil fuel generation.
• High capital expenditure requirements for maintaining and upgrading infrastructure.

What Could Drive VST Stock Higher?

Expansion of renewable energy projects, including solar and battery storage facilities.

• Strategic acquisitions and partnerships to enhance market presence.
• Regulatory approvals for new energy projects and initiatives.
• Implementation of digital technologies to improve customer engagement.

What Are the Key Risks for VST?

Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of 1.46 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).

• Inconsistent delivery — missed Wall Street EPS estimates in 5 of the last 8 reported quarters.
• Insider selling — insiders were net sellers of roughly $14.6M recently.
• Commodity price volatility impacting profitability.
• Changes in government regulations and policies affecting the energy sector.
• Cybersecurity risks and potential infrastructure disruptions.
• Environmental liabilities associated with fossil fuel generation.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for VST?

• Growth opportunity 1: Expansion of Renewable Energy Portfolio: Vistra has the opportunity to significantly expand its renewable energy portfolio, including solar and battery storage facilities. The increasing demand for clean energy, driven by government incentives and corporate sustainability goals, presents a substantial market opportunity. Investments in renewable energy projects can enhance Vistra's long-term growth prospects and reduce its carbon footprint. This aligns with the global trend towards decarbonization and positions Vistra as a leader in the energy transition.
• Growth opportunity 2: Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships: Vistra can pursue strategic acquisitions and partnerships to expand its geographic reach and enhance its service offerings. Acquiring smaller energy companies or partnering with technology providers can provide access to new markets and innovative solutions. This strategy can accelerate Vistra's growth trajectory and strengthen its competitive position in the evolving energy landscape. Identifying synergistic opportunities will be crucial for successful implementation.
• Growth opportunity 3: Enhanced Retail Customer Engagement: Vistra can enhance its retail customer engagement through personalized energy solutions and digital platforms. Offering customized energy plans, smart home integration, and real-time energy monitoring can improve customer satisfaction and loyalty. Investing in digital technologies and customer service initiatives can drive customer acquisition and retention, contributing to revenue growth and market share gains. This approach aligns with the increasing demand for customer-centric energy services.
• Growth opportunity 4: Development of Battery Storage Solutions: Vistra can capitalize on the growing demand for battery storage solutions to enhance grid reliability and integrate renewable energy sources. Battery storage systems can store excess energy generated from solar and wind facilities, providing a reliable power supply during peak demand periods. Investing in battery storage technology can improve grid stability, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and create new revenue streams for Vistra. This positions Vistra as a key player in the energy storage market.
• Growth opportunity 5: Expansion into New Geographic Markets: Vistra has the opportunity to expand its retail electricity and power generation operations into new geographic markets. Identifying regions with favorable regulatory environments and growing energy demand can drive revenue growth and diversification. Entering new markets requires careful planning and execution, including assessing market dynamics, establishing local partnerships, and developing tailored service offerings. This strategic expansion can enhance Vistra's long-term growth prospects and market leadership.

What Are VST's Competitive Advantages?

• Diversified generation portfolio reduces reliance on any single fuel source.
• Integrated business model provides synergies between retail and generation operations.
• Established customer base of approximately 4.3 million customers provides recurring revenue.
• Strategic asset locations provide access to key energy markets.

What Does VST Do?

Founded in 1882 and headquartered in Irving, Texas, Vistra Corp. has evolved into an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. Originally known as Vistra Energy Corp., the company rebranded in July 2020 to reflect its broader strategic focus. Vistra operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. The Retail segment focuses on selling electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states and the District of Columbia. Vistra's power generation portfolio includes natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities, providing a total generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts. The company is also involved in wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management. Vistra serves approximately 4.3 million customers, positioning itself as a key player in the U.S. energy market.

What Products and Services Does VST Offer?

• Retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
• Operates in six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure.
• Generates electricity from natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities.
• Engages in wholesale energy purchases and sales.
• Manages commodity risk associated with energy markets.
• Handles fuel production and fuel logistics management activities.
• Serves approximately 4.3 million customers across 20 states and the District of Columbia.

How Does VST Make Money?

• Generates revenue through the sale of electricity and natural gas to retail customers.
• Profits from wholesale energy trading and risk management activities.
• Operates and maintains a diverse portfolio of power generation assets.
• Manages fuel supply and logistics to ensure reliable power generation.

What Industry Does VST Operate In?

Vistra Corp. operates within the independent power producers industry, which is undergoing significant transformation due to the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources and evolving regulatory landscapes. The industry is characterized by intense competition, with companies like Duke Energy Corporation (DUK), National Grid plc (NGG), and American Electric Power Company (AEP) vying for market share. The shift towards cleaner energy sources is driving investments in solar, wind, and battery storage technologies. Vistra's diversified generation portfolio positions it to capitalize on these trends, while also navigating the challenges of transitioning away from traditional fossil fuels.

Who Are VST's Key Customers?

• Residential customers seeking reliable electricity and natural gas services.
• Commercial customers requiring energy solutions for their business operations.
• Industrial customers with high energy consumption needs.
• Wholesale energy market participants.

Vistra Corp. (VST) Valuation Context

Valued at $46.9B, VST is classified as a large-cap stock. Relative to its peer group, VST's quantitative score of 39/100 is below the peer average of 52/100.

VST Revenue & Earnings Trend

In Q1 2026, VST generated $4.65B in top-line revenue, marking a sequential increase of 99.1%. The company recorded net income of $1.03B, with diluted EPS of $3.03. Quarter-over-quarter revenue has been mixed, typical for a large-cap company operating in Utilities. Across the four most recent quarters, VST averaged $1.65 in diluted EPS.

Company Profile

Vistra Corp. operates in the Independent Power Producers industry within the Utilities sector. It is headquartered in Irving, US. The company is led by CEO James A. Burke. VST has traded publicly since 2016.

Return on equity for Vistra Corp. stands at 41.5%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 5.2%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. VST trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 22.42, above the Utilities sector average of ~19x. Its free cash flow yield is 2.9%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 0.97 means current liabilities exceed short-term assets, a liquidity point worth watching. Its earnings yield is 4.7%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

Vistra Corp.'s Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — a middling fundamental profile. Its Altman Z-Score of 1.46 places it in the distress zone, a signal of elevated financial risk.

Vistra Corp. has missed Wall Street's EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reported quarters — a mixed record worth weighing. Reported results have landed about 9.4% above estimates on average.

Wall Street analysts project Vistra Corp. revenue of about $23.25B for fiscal 2026, with EPS near $9.06. The estimate reflects 7 contributing analysts.

Over the past six months, Vistra Corp. insiders filed 30 SEC Form 4 transactions — 14 sales and 16 purchases. On net that is roughly 10K shares disposed (about $14.6M), a signal worth weighing alongside the fundamentals.

VST Financials

VST earnings history & estimates →

VST Latest News

VST Analyst Consensus

VST MoonshotScore

Latest Vistra Corp. Analysis

Vistra Corp. Utilities Stock: Key Questions Answered

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

Official Resources