Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Stock Analysis

Why this analysis is different

• A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Financial Services Profile

Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides credit protection to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets globally. Operating through its Insurance and Asset Management segments, the company offers financial guaranty insurance, protecting debt holders from defaults. With a strong profit margin and dividend yield, Assured Guaranty maintains a significant presence in the specialty insurance sector.

What Is the Investment Thesis for AGO?

With a market capitalization of $3.24B and a P/E ratio of 9.94, the company demonstrates financial stability. Key catalysts include ongoing infrastructure investments and increased demand for credit protection in volatile markets. The company's dividend yield of 1.87% provides additional value to investors. Potential risks include changes in interest rates and regulatory oversight. The company's ability to maintain its underwriting standards and manage its risk exposure will be critical for sustained growth.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

AGO Key Highlights

Market Cap of $3.24B indicates substantial company size and investor confidence.

• P/E ratio of 9.94 suggests the company may be undervalued compared to its earnings.
• Profit Margin of 43.6% demonstrates efficient operations and strong profitability.
• Gross Margin of 94.6% highlights the company's ability to manage costs effectively.
• Dividend Yield of 1.87% provides a steady income stream for investors.

Who Are AGO's Competitors?

AGO is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance

What Are AGO's Key Strengths?

Strong market position in financial guaranty insurance.

• High gross and profit margins.
• Diversified portfolio of insured obligations.
• Experienced management team.

What Are AGO's Weaknesses?

Exposure to economic cycles and interest rate fluctuations.

• Dependence on underwriting standards to manage risk.
• Potential for large losses from insured defaults.
• Regulatory scrutiny and capital requirements.

What Could Drive AGO Stock Higher?

Increased infrastructure spending globally driving demand for credit protection.

• Volatility in financial markets increasing demand for financial guaranty insurance.
• Potential regulatory changes that could benefit the financial guaranty industry.
• Expansion of asset management services attracting institutional investors.

What Are the Key Risks for AGO?

Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of 1.28 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).

• Insider selling — insiders were net sellers of roughly $18.6M recently.
• Economic downturns leading to increased default rates on insured obligations.
• Changes in interest rates impacting the value of insured obligations.
• Regulatory scrutiny and capital requirements increasing compliance costs.
• Increased competition from other insurance and financial services companies.
• Geopolitical risks and market volatility affecting investment returns.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for AGO?

• Expansion into Infrastructure Financing: With increasing global infrastructure development, Assured Guaranty has a significant opportunity to expand its credit protection services for infrastructure projects. By focusing on renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure, Assured Guaranty can align with global trends and attract environmentally conscious investors, enhancing its market position.
• Increased Demand for Municipal Bonds Insurance: The U.S. municipal bond market, valued at over $4 trillion, presents a consistent demand for insurance against defaults. Assured Guaranty can capitalize on this by offering tailored insurance products to municipalities, particularly those with lower credit ratings. As municipalities face increasing financial pressures, the demand for credit enhancement through insurance is expected to rise, providing a stable growth avenue for Assured Guaranty.
• Growth in Asset Management Services: Assured Guaranty's asset management segment offers opportunities to expand its investment advisory services and management of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). The CLO market is experiencing growth, driven by demand for structured credit products. By enhancing its expertise in managing CLOs and other structured finance assets, Assured Guaranty can attract institutional investors seeking higher yields, thereby increasing its assets under management and revenue.
• Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions: Assured Guaranty can pursue strategic partnerships and acquisitions to expand its geographic reach and product offerings. Partnering with regional financial institutions can provide access to new markets and customer segments. Acquiring smaller insurance companies or asset management firms can add complementary capabilities and diversify its revenue streams. These strategic moves can enhance Assured Guaranty's competitive position and drive long-term growth.
• Leveraging Technology and Data Analytics: Investing in technology and data analytics can improve Assured Guaranty's underwriting processes and risk management capabilities. By using advanced analytics to assess credit risks and predict potential defaults, the company can make more informed underwriting decisions and reduce its exposure to losses. Furthermore, technology can streamline operations, reduce costs, and enhance customer service, providing a competitive edge in the market.

What Are AGO's Competitive Advantages?

• Strong underwriting expertise in assessing and managing credit risks.
• Established relationships with issuers, underwriters, and investors in public finance and structured finance markets.
• Diversified portfolio of insured obligations across various sectors and geographies.
• Significant capital base to support its insurance obligations and asset management activities.

What Does AGO Do?

Incorporated in 2003 and headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda, Assured Guaranty Ltd. has established itself as a leading provider of credit protection products. The company operates through two primary segments: Insurance and Asset Management. Its core business involves offering financial guaranty insurance, which protects holders of debt instruments from potential defaults in scheduled payments. Assured Guaranty insures and reinsures a diverse range of debt obligations, including bonds issued by U.S. state governmental authorities and notes financing infrastructure projects. Specifically, the company's insurance portfolio includes U.S. public finance obligations such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, and renewable energy bonds. It also covers non-U.S. public finance obligations, including regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign entities, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure projects. Additionally, Assured Guaranty provides insurance and reinsurance for U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, encompassing residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, consumer receivables securities, pooled corporate obligations, financial products, and other structured finance securities. The company further extends its services to specialty insurance and reinsurance, including life and aircraft residual value insurance transactions. Assured Guaranty also offers asset management services, which include investment advisory services, management of collateralized loan obligations, and opportunity and liquid strategy funds. The company markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters, as well as investors in public and structured finance securities.

What Products and Services Does AGO Offer?

• Provides financial guaranty insurance to protect holders of debt instruments.
• Insures and reinsures bonds issued by U.S. state governmental authorities.
• Offers credit protection for infrastructure projects.
• Insures U.S. public finance obligations, including general obligation and tax-backed bonds.
• Insures non-U.S. public finance obligations, such as regulated utilities and sovereign bonds.
• Provides insurance for structured finance obligations, including mortgage-backed securities.
• Offers specialty insurance and reinsurance, including life and aircraft residual value insurance.
• Provides asset management services, including investment advisory and CLO management.

How Does AGO Make Money?

• Generates revenue from premiums charged for financial guaranty insurance.
• Earns fees from asset management services, including investment advisory and CLO management.
• Receives investment income from its portfolio of insured and reinsured obligations.
• Manages risk through underwriting standards and diversification of insured obligations.

What Industry Does AGO Operate In?

Assured Guaranty Ltd. operates within the specialty insurance sector, which is characterized by providing niche insurance products and services beyond traditional offerings. The market is influenced by economic cycles, interest rates, and regulatory changes. Competition includes companies like Radian Group Inc. (RDN) and CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO), which also offer financial guaranty and insurance services. Demand for credit protection in public finance and infrastructure projects drives growth in this sector. Assured Guaranty's focus on both insurance and asset management positions it favorably in this competitive landscape.

Who Are AGO's Key Customers?

• Issuers of public finance and structured finance securities.
• Underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities.
• Investors in public finance and structured finance obligations.
• Municipalities and governmental authorities seeking credit enhancement.
• Institutional investors seeking asset management services.

Over the past six months, Assured Guaranty Ltd. insiders filed 37 SEC Form 4 transactions — 23 sales and 14 purchases. On net that is roughly 207K shares disposed (about $18.6M), a signal worth weighing alongside the fundamentals.

Quarterly Financial Performance: Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Revenue for Assured Guaranty Ltd. came in at $197.0M during Jun 2026, a 24.5% contraction versus the preceding quarter. The company recorded net income of $39.0M, with diluted EPS of $0.87. Quarter-over-quarter revenue has been mixed, typical for a mid-cap company operating in Financial Services. Across the four most recent quarters, AGO averaged $1.84 in diluted EPS.

AGO Valuation & Market Position

With a $3.24B market cap, Assured Guaranty Ltd. sits in the mid-cap segment of the market. Analyst price targets span from $80.00 to $80.00, with a consensus of $80.00. At the current price of $73.07, that implies approximately 9% upside potential. Relative to its peer group, AGO's quantitative score of 66/100 is below the peer average of 87/100.

Return on equity for Assured Guaranty Ltd. stands at 7.4%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 3.3%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. AGO trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 9.94, below the Financial Services sector average of ~17.50x. Its free cash flow yield is 11.0%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 1.02 indicates the company holds enough short-term assets to cover its near-term obligations. Its earnings yield is 12.2%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — a middling fundamental profile. Its Altman Z-Score of 1.28 places it in the distress zone, a signal of elevated financial risk.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. has beaten Wall Street's EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reported quarters — more hits than misses. Reported results have landed about 24.4% above estimates on average.

Wall Street analysts project Assured Guaranty Ltd. revenue of about $851.6M for fiscal 2026, with EPS near $7.13.

Company Profile

Assured Guaranty Ltd. operates in the Insurance - Specialty industry within the Financial Services sector. It is headquartered in Hamilton, BM. The company is led by CEO Dominic Frederico. AGO has traded publicly since 2004.

AGO Financials

AGO Latest News

AGO Analyst Consensus

AGO MoonshotScore

What Investors Ask About Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) — Financial Services

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

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