Origin Energy Limited (OGFGY) Stock Analysis
Educational signal · not a buy or sell recommendation · How to read this
P/E 12.71 means the share price is 12.71 times one year of earnings per share; the S&P 500 usually sits near 20-25. Market cap $14.5B is the value of all shares combined.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Machine-generated analysis by Stock Expert AI — model gemini-2.0-flash, generated Mar 15, 2026. Editorial oversight is systemic, not page-by-page. Editorially accountable: Sedat ANAK, Founder and Editor-in-Chief. Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR
Quick AnswerOrigin Energy Limited (OGFGY) trades at $8.41. Origin Energy Limited is an integrated energy company based in Australia, involved in natural gas exploration, electricity generation, and retail energy sales. Market cap: $14.5B, Sector: Energy.
Price as of Sep 11, 2026 · Last analyzed: Mar 15, 2026Analyst Coverage for OGFGY: OGFGY does not currently have published analyst price targets in our coverage universe. This is common for smaller-cap names with limited Wall Street coverage. In the absence of analyst consensus, our AI model evaluates OGFGY against Energy peers across nine fundamental dimensions and assigns a neutral fundamental signal based on the underlying data.
No score published: this stock trades under $10,000 on a typical day, so the price beside it is not one you could reliably act on.
OGFGY: 2/2 scored disciplines lean bullish. Dominant signal: Ken Griffin bullish.
How is this calculated? →AI simulations built from the named investors' published principles. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or the opinion of these individuals. How these lenses are built
Origin Energy Limited (OGFGY) Energy Operations & Outlook
Origin Energy Limited, an Australian integrated energy company, explores and produces natural gas, generates electricity from diverse sources, and retails energy. With a 5.16% dividend yield and a presence in both traditional and renewable energy markets, Origin Energy navigates the evolving energy landscape while competing with companies like AETUF and GLPEF.
What Is the Investment Thesis for OGFGY?
Origin Energy Limited presents a mixed investment case. The company's integrated business model, spanning gas exploration, power generation, and retail, offers diversification. A 5.16% dividend yield may attract income-focused investors. However, Origin Energy operates in a sector undergoing significant transition, with increasing pressure to shift towards renewable energy sources. The company's exposure to fossil fuels could pose risks as environmental regulations tighten and renewable energy becomes more competitive. The P/E ratio of 12.71 suggests a valuation in line with earnings, but future growth will depend on successful navigation of the energy transition and efficient management of its diverse asset base.
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis
OGFGY Key Highlights
Market capitalization of $14.5B reflects Origin Energy's significant presence in the Australian energy market.
- P/E ratio of 12.71 indicates the price investors are willing to pay for each dollar of Origin Energy's earnings.
- Profit margin of 6.3% shows the percentage of revenue that Origin Energy retains as profit after accounting for all expenses.
- Gross margin of 10.9% indicates the percentage of revenue that Origin Energy retains after deducting the cost of goods sold.
- Dividend yield of 5.16% provides a significant income stream for investors, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Who Are OGFGY's Competitors?
OGFGY is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.
| Company | Price | Change | Market Cap | MoonshotScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AETUF ARC Resources Ltd. | $24.54 | +0.57% | $13.9B | — |
| GLPEF Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. | $25.02 | +2.67% | $18.7B | — |
| NATKY JSC National Atomic Company Kazatomprom | $71.13 | 0.00% | $18.5B | — |
| OMVJF OMV AG | $82.30 | +0.16% | $26.8B | — |
| PEXNY PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited | $9.11 | +4.00% | $18.1B | — |
| YPF YPF Sociedad Anónima | $56.42 | +0.64% | $22.1B | 595-pillar |
| NFG National Fuel Gas Company | $82.33 | -0.15% | $7.83B | 735-pillar |
| EC Ecopetrol S.A. | $17.75 | -1.77% | $36.5B | 725-pillar |
AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance
What Are OGFGY's Key Strengths?
Integrated operations across the energy value chain.
- Diversified portfolio of energy generation assets.
- Established presence in the Australian energy market.
- Access to significant natural gas reserves.
What Are OGFGY's Weaknesses?
Exposure to fluctuating commodity prices.
- Reliance on fossil fuels in a transitioning energy market.
- Relatively low profit margin compared to some peers.
- Dependence on regulatory approvals for project development.
What Could Drive OGFGY Stock Higher?
OGFGY catalyst: Continued expansion of renewable energy projects, driven by government incentives and increasing demand for clean energy.
- Development of natural gas reserves in the Bowen, Surat, Browse, and Beetaloo basins to meet domestic and export demand.
- Potential for new partnerships and acquisitions in the renewable energy sector to accelerate growth.
- Enhancement of retail energy offerings with value-added services and smart home technologies to improve customer retention.
- Investment in energy storage solutions to support the integration of renewable energy into the grid.
What Are the Key Risks for OGFGY?
Exposure to fluctuating commodity prices, particularly natural gas and coal.
- Tightening environmental regulations and carbon pricing policies that could increase operating costs.
- Technological disruptions in the energy sector that could render existing assets obsolete.
- Economic downturns that reduce energy demand and impact profitability.
- Competition from other energy providers, including both traditional and renewable energy companies.
What Are the Growth Opportunities for OGFGY?
- Expansion of Renewable Energy Portfolio: Origin Energy can capitalize on the growing demand for renewable energy by expanding its investments in wind, solar, and pumped hydro storage projects. The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) projects significant growth in renewable energy capacity, creating opportunities for Origin to increase its market share and reduce its reliance on fossil fuels. This expansion can be achieved through strategic acquisitions, partnerships, and organic development projects, with a potential timeline of 3-5 years for substantial capacity additions.
- Development of Natural Gas Reserves: Origin Energy possesses significant natural gas reserves in the Bowen, Surat, Browse, and Beetaloo basins. Developing these reserves can provide a stable source of energy supply and generate revenue through domestic sales and LNG exports. The global demand for natural gas is expected to remain strong in the coming years, driven by industrial growth and the transition away from coal. Origin Energy can leverage its existing infrastructure and expertise to efficiently extract and transport natural gas to meet this demand, with a timeline of 2-4 years for bringing new gas fields into production.
- Enhancement of Retail Energy Offerings: Origin Energy can enhance its retail energy offerings by providing value-added services and products to its customers. This includes offering energy efficiency solutions, smart home technologies, and personalized energy plans. The increasing adoption of smart meters and data analytics enables Origin Energy to better understand customer needs and tailor its offerings accordingly. By providing innovative and customer-centric solutions, Origin Energy can increase customer loyalty and attract new customers, with ongoing efforts to refine and expand retail offerings.
- Investment in Energy Storage Solutions: As renewable energy penetration increases, energy storage solutions become increasingly important for ensuring grid stability and reliability. Origin Energy can invest in battery storage and pumped hydro storage projects to store excess renewable energy and dispatch it when needed. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) forecasts significant growth in energy storage capacity, creating opportunities for Origin Energy to become a leader in this emerging market. These projects typically have a development timeline of 2-5 years.
- Exploration of New Energy Technologies: Origin Energy can explore new energy technologies, such as hydrogen production and carbon capture and storage (CCS), to diversify its business and reduce its carbon footprint. The Australian government is supporting the development of these technologies through funding and policy initiatives. Origin Energy can partner with research institutions and technology companies to develop and deploy these technologies, with a longer-term timeline of 5-10 years for commercial-scale deployment.
What Are OGFGY's Competitive Advantages?
- Integrated operations across the energy value chain, from exploration to retail, provide diversification and stability.
- Established presence in the Australian energy market with a large customer base.
- Diversified portfolio of energy generation assets, including both traditional and renewable sources.
- Access to significant natural gas reserves in key basins.
What Does OGFGY Do?
Origin Energy Limited, established in 1946 and headquartered in Barangaroo, Australia, operates as an integrated energy company with a diverse portfolio spanning natural gas exploration and production, electricity generation, and retail energy sales. The company's operations are structured into three segments: Energy Markets, Integrated Gas, and Corporate. Origin Energy's exploration and production activities are concentrated in key basins such as the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland, the Browse basin in Western Australia, and the Beetaloo basin in the Northern Territory. The company generates electricity from a mix of sources, including coal, wind, pumped water storage, solar, and cogeneration plants. Origin Energy also retails electricity, natural gas, and LPG to residential and business customers, offering GreenPower and green gas products. Beyond energy supply, the company provides energy-related products like electric and gas hot water systems, air conditioners, and heating and cooling solutions.
What Products and Services Does OGFGY Offer?
- Explores and produces natural gas from various basins in Australia.
- Generates electricity from coal, wind, pumped water storage, solar, and cogeneration plants.
- Sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG to residential and business customers.
- Provides GreenPower and green gas products.
- Supplies LPG to residential and business customers.
- Offers electric and gas hot water systems.
- Provides split system air conditioners and ducted heating/cooling solutions.
How Does OGFGY Make Money?
- Generates revenue from the sale of electricity, natural gas, and LPG to residential and business customers.
- Derives income from the exploration and production of natural gas.
- Earns revenue from the sale of GreenPower and green gas products.
- Profits from the sale and installation of energy-related products like hot water systems and air conditioners.
What Industry Does OGFGY Operate In?
Origin Energy operates within the dynamic and evolving energy industry, facing pressures from both traditional and renewable energy sources. The Australian energy market is undergoing a transition towards cleaner energy, driven by government policies and consumer preferences. Origin Energy competes with other integrated energy companies, as well as specialized renewable energy providers. The industry is characterized by fluctuating commodity prices, regulatory changes, and technological advancements, requiring companies to adapt and innovate to maintain competitiveness. Competitors include AETUF, GLPEF, NATKY, OMVJF, and PEXNY.
Who Are OGFGY's Key Customers?
- Residential customers who purchase electricity, natural gas, and LPG for their homes.
- Business customers who require energy for their operations.
- Customers seeking GreenPower and green gas products for environmentally conscious energy consumption.
Research confidence
Enough evidence to be useful, with gaps worth knowing about.
- ● Scoring coverage unknown
- ● Price is current
- ● Latest filing 73 days ago
- ● No analyst coverage
- ● Reported in AUD, converted to USD
MoonshotScore History
Recorded daily since 2026-08-23 · 20 snapshots
| 2026-08-23 | 49 |
| 2026-08-27 | 49 |
| 2026-08-31 | 49 |
| 2026-09-04 | 49 |
| 2026-09-08 | 49 |
| 2026-09-11 | 49 |
What changed?
The score has stayed at 49.
Over the same 19 days the stock moved -0.5%.
Company Profile
Origin Energy Limited operates in the Diversified Utilities industry within the Utilities sector. It is headquartered in Barangaroo, AU. The company is led by CEO Frank G. Calabria. OGFGY has traded publicly since 2012.
Key Financial Metrics
Return on equity for Origin Energy Limited stands at 10.4%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 5.1%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. OGFGY trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 12.71, below the Energy sector average of ~15.80x. Its free cash flow yield is 4.0%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 1.18 indicates the company holds enough short-term assets to cover its near-term obligations. Its earnings yield is 5.4%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.
OGFGY Valuation & Market Position
With a $14.5B market cap, Origin Energy Limited sits in the large-cap segment of the market.
Quarterly Financial Performance: Origin Energy Limited
Revenue for Origin Energy Limited came in at $5.46B during Q4 FY2026, a 2.2% contraction versus the preceding quarter. The company recorded net income of $739.7M, with diluted EPS of $0.42. Revenue has contracted over three consecutive quarters, which investors in this large-cap Energy stock should monitor closely. Across the four most recent quarters, OGFGY averaged $0.32 in diluted EPS.
Financial Health
Origin Energy Limited's Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — signaling solid underlying fundamentals. Its Altman Z-Score of 3.06 places it in the safe zone, indicating low near-term bankruptcy risk.
OGFGY Financials
Fundamental Snapshot
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis · FY 2026
Bull Case vs Bear Case
Bull Case
- Integrated operations across the energy value chain.
- Diversified portfolio of energy generation assets.
- Established presence in the Australian energy market.
- Access to significant natural gas reserves.
Bear Case
- Exposure to fluctuating commodity prices.
- Reliance on fossil fuels in a transitioning energy market.
- Relatively low profit margin compared to some peers.
- Dependence on regulatory approvals for project development.
AI-generated arguments based on insider flow, news sentiment and technicals — not financial advice · March 2026
Recent Quarterly Results
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY2026 | $5.46B | $740M | $0.42 |
| Q2 FY2026 | $5.58B | $392M | $0.22 |
| Q4 FY2025 | $6.02B | $333M | $0.19 |
| Q2 FY2025 | $6.31B | $729M | $0.42 |
Q4 FY2026 · filed 30 Jun 2026 · Financial Modeling Prep
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis · Converted to USD from AUD at today's rate
OGFGY Latest News
-
Origin Energy Limited (OGFGY) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
seekingalpha.com · Aug 12, 2026
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Australia's Origin Energy beats annual profit estimates on energy markets gains
reuters.com · Aug 12, 2026
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Australia's Origin Energy flags possible data exposure of about 900,000 customers
reuters.com · Jul 27, 2026
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Australia's Origin Energy confirms customer data breach
reuters.com · Jul 23, 2026
OGFGY Analyst Consensus
Consensus Rating
Aggregated Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations collected by Financial Modeling Prep for OGFGY.
Price Targets
Wall Street price target analysis for OGFGY.
OGFGY MoonshotScore
MoonshotScore is Stock Expert AI's proprietary 0-100 research rating, not a buy or sell recommendation. No MoonshotScore is published for OGFGY; grades run from A+ (80-100) to F (below 30).
Latest News
Origin Energy Limited (OGFGY) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Australia's Origin Energy beats annual profit estimates on energy markets gains
Australia's Origin Energy flags possible data exposure of about 900,000 customers
Australia's Origin Energy confirms customer data breach
Leadership: Frank G. Calabria
CEO
Frank G. Calabria serves as the CEO of Origin Energy Limited. His career spans various leadership roles in the energy and infrastructure sectors. Prior to joining Origin Energy, he held executive positions at prominent Australian companies. His experience includes financial management, strategic planning, and operational leadership. He is known for his focus on driving performance, innovation, and sustainability within the energy industry. Calabria's leadership is instrumental in guiding Origin Energy through the evolving energy landscape.
Track Record: Under Frank G. Calabria's leadership, Origin Energy has focused on navigating the energy transition, investing in renewable energy projects, and managing its natural gas assets. He has overseen the company's efforts to enhance its retail energy offerings and improve customer satisfaction. Key milestones include strategic acquisitions and partnerships in the renewable energy sector, as well as the development of new natural gas resources. His tenure has been marked by a commitment to sustainability and responsible energy production.
Origin Energy Limited ADR Information Unsponsored
An American Depositary Receipt (ADR) is a certificate representing shares of a foreign company trading on U.S. stock exchanges. OGFGY functions as a Level 1 ADR, meaning it trades over-the-counter (OTC) without needing to meet the strict listing requirements of major exchanges. This allows U.S. investors to invest in Origin Energy more easily, though with potentially lower liquidity and transparency compared to listed stocks.
- Home Market Ticker: Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), Australia
- ADR Level: 1
- ADR Ratio: 1:1
- Home Market Ticker: OGFG
OGFGY OTC Market Information
The OTC Other tier represents the lowest tier of the over-the-counter (OTC) market. Companies in this tier often have limited or no financial disclosure, making them higher risk investments compared to companies listed on major exchanges like the NYSE or NASDAQ. Unlike listed companies, OTC Other companies may not be required to meet minimum listing standards or maintain certain levels of financial performance, leading to increased uncertainty for investors.
- OTC Tier: OTC Other
- Limited financial disclosure increases information asymmetry and the potential for fraud.
- Lower liquidity can make it difficult to buy or sell shares without impacting the price.
- Higher price volatility can lead to significant losses.
- OTC Other companies may not be subject to the same regulatory oversight as listed companies.
- Potential for delisting or suspension from trading due to non-compliance with OTC market rules.
- Verify the company's registration and legal status.
- Obtain and review any available financial statements, even if unaudited.
- Research the company's management team and their track record.
- Assess the company's business model and competitive landscape.
- Understand the risks associated with the company's industry and operations.
- Consult with a qualified financial advisor.
- Be aware of potential red flags, such as excessive promotional activity or unrealistic claims.
- Origin Energy Limited is an established company with a long operating history.
- The company has a significant market capitalization, suggesting a substantial business.
- Origin Energy Limited is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), indicating a level of regulatory compliance.
- The company has a dividend yield, suggesting a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Common Questions About OGFGY (Energy)
Is OGFGY a good stock?
Stock Expert AI does not rate OGFGY buy, sell or hold. Origin Energy Limited has no MoonshotScore yet; read the financial checkup, analyst consensus and risks directly. Whether it fits is your call: check what it sells, whether it earns, what the price assumes, and what would prove you wrong.
What do analysts say about OGFGY stock?
Analyst consensus on OGFGY is mixed, reflecting the complexities of the energy sector and Origin Energy's position within it. Key valuation metrics, such as the P/E ratio and dividend yield, are closely monitored.
What are the key factors to evaluate for OGFGY?
Evaluate OGFGY on fundamentals, analyst consensus, and risk factors. P/E: 12.71x vs the S&P 500's ~20-25x. P/E ratio of 12.71 indicates the price investors are willing to pay for each dollar of Origin Energy's earnings. Not financial advice.
How frequently does OGFGY data refresh on this page?
OGFGY's price was last updated on Sep 11, 2026 and refreshes on page view during U.S. market hours; the quote is a provider snapshot, not an exchange feed. Fundamentals follow quarterly filings. V2 calculations are scheduled daily at 10:15 UTC; the score's own date shows its last successful run.
What has driven OGFGY's recent stock price performance?
Origin Energy Limited (OGFGY) moves on earnings results, analyst revisions, sector rotation, and market sentiment. Notable catalyst: Integrated operations across the energy value chain. See the News tab for the latest drivers. Past performance does not predict future results.
Should investors consider OGFGY overvalued or undervalued right now?
Origin Energy Limited (OGFGY) trades at 12.71x earnings. Compare P/E, P/S, and EV/EBITDA against sector peers for a full view.
Can I buy fractional shares of OGFGY?
Yes, most major brokerages offer fractional shares of Origin Energy Limited (OGFGY) with no minimum purchase requirement. This means you can invest any dollar amount regardless of the share price. Check your brokerage platform for specific terms, fees, and fractional share availability.
How can I track OGFGY's earnings and financial reports?
Origin Energy Limited (OGFGY) reports quarterly earnings approximately 4-6 weeks after each fiscal quarter ends. You can track earnings dates, revenue and EPS estimates, and actual results on this page's Financials tab. Earnings surprises (beats or misses) often cause significant short-term price moves. Your brokerage can send alerts for OGFGY earnings announcements.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.
Official Resources
MoonshotScore is not published for this security.
Data provided for informational purposes only.
- OTC data may be limited or delayed.
- Analyst estimates are subject to change.
- Investment decisions should be based on thorough research and consultation with a financial advisor.