Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
AJG - NYSE - $205.80 ▼ -%0.59
-
Earnings Thu 30 Jul

Arthur opens the
books on Thursday evening.

4 analysts' median target is $282[FMP target], stock is $206, +37.0% upside potential. After Q1 +0.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.8%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 63

B = MoonshotScore 63[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $4.0B[FMP est], EPS $2.87[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.87 EPS Estimate Last year $2.38 - +23% YoY YoY
2 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 2 quarters

Q1 EPS +0.9% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Douglas Howell promised $39.6M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Douglas Howell capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

6% Expectation / Guide

Organic Growth Outlook

organic_growth_outlook

AJG maintains its full year 2026 organic growth outlook of 6%.

"This gives us confidence in the durability of our results and provides further confidence in our 2026 full year organic growth outlook of 6%."

- J. Gallagher, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
5% Investor Focus

Brokerage Organic Growth

brokerage_organic_growth

AJG's Brokerage organic growth was 5%, in line with March IR Day expectations.

"Brokerage organic at 5%, right in line with our March IR Day expectations."

- Douglas Howell, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
750 Investor Focus

Assuredpartners Integration

assuredpartners_integration

AJG states that the integration of AssuredPartners is on plan and the cultural alignment has been strong.

"As for the AssuredPartners acquisition, we are following our proven integration playbook developed from doing over 750 mergers over the last 20 years. We are on plan without exception. The cultural alignment has been exactly what we expected, a culture with a strong client-first mindset and a genuine excitement for leveraging our expertise, tools and capabilities."

- J. Gallagher, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
40 Investor Focus

M&A Pipeline

M&A_pipeline

AJG has an M&A pipeline with over 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing around $400 million of annualized revenues.

"Looking at our pipeline, we have over 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing around $400 million of annualized revenues."

- J. Gallagher, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
130 Risk Indicator

Risk Management Performance

risk_management_performance

AJG's Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett, had an excellent quarter with 10% organic growth and a 130 basis points increase in adjusted EBITDAC margin.

"Risk Management showed continuous compensation and operating expense ratio improvement, leading to an adjusted EBITDAC margin up 130 basis points."

- Douglas Howell, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 63 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+47.7%)
Gross Margin8.0Q1: very high margin (84.9%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin healthy (25.6%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.7B, 18.0x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 35.5 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (64%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +37.0%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 35
Klarman value - target upside +37.0%
Buffett quality - ROE score 2/5
Munger valuation - target upside +37.0%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
35.5 RSI 35.5 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-5.00 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$217 stock 5.0% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$257 stock 20.0% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-17% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$282
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$206
Pre-earnings position
Support
$219
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$219-$282 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Arthur's last 8 quarters: 2 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q2 FY25
$2.33 vs $2.36 est - -1.1%
MISS
Q3 FY25
$2.32 vs $2.51 est - -4.8%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.38 vs $2.35 est - +1.4%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$4.47 vs $4.43 est - +0.8%

Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $4.47 vs $4.43 est[FMP], +0.9% beat. D+1 movement: +0.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.78 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $4.47 vs $4.43 beat[FMP], stock +0.8% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $39.6M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 25.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.87 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.87[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $282[FMP target]; high target $334[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.87 + CapEx < $39.6M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.87[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $39.6M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $206[FMP] and median $282[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.78 or CapEx >= $39.6M
Threshold: EPS < $2.78[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $206 below SMA200 $257[FMP], if rejection continues, $219[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 4 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$282
12-month median target price (+37.0% upside potential)
14
BUY
8
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$219
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$217 - 50-day MA (below, -5.0%)
$257 - 200-day MA (below, -20.0%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - AJG Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.87[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $39.6M"[Douglas Howell]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).

3 subscriptions. 1 platform.

Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts

Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing

Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.

Try Pro free for 14 days AJG dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 30, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 31, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 30, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the AJG earnings preview cover?

This AJG (AJG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in AJG earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.