2 analysts' median target is $177[FMP target], stock is $181, -2.1% upside potential. After Q2 +3.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.6%.
A- = MoonshotScore 43[9-pillar formula] + Council 0/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $913.9M[FMP est], EPS $1.32[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +3.0% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Christopher Forsythe promised $1.0B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q2 earnings call[Christopher Forsythe capex transcript].
Watchlist
Apt Revenue Increase
apt_revenue_increase
APT's through-system revenues increased by $16 million during the first 6 months of fiscal 2026, driven by higher spreads.
"Finally, APT's through-system revenues net of Rider REV increased about $16 million or $0.08. Substantially, all of this increase reflected higher spreads realized during fiscal '26 compared with fiscal '25."
- Christopher Forsythe, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Eps Guidance Increase
eps_guidance_increase
Atmos Energy increased its fiscal 2026 earnings per share guidance from a range of $8.35 to $8.45 to a new range of $8.40 to $8.50.
"As we reported last night, we have increased our fiscal '26 earnings per share guidance from an original range of $8.15 to $8.25 (sic) [ $8.35 ] to a new range of $8.40, $8.50."
- Christopher Forsythe, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Customer Growth
customer_growth
Atmos Energy added over 51,000 new customers in the 12 months ending March 31, 2026, with over 39,000 of those new customers located in Texas.
"For the 12 months ending March 31, 2026, we added over 51,000 new customers with over 39,000 of those new customers located here in Texas."
- John Akers, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
O&M Guidance
o&m_guidance
Atmos Energy anticipates its O&M to be in the range of $865 million to $885 million for fiscal year 2026.
"We still anticipate our O&M to be in the range of $865 million to $885 million."
- Christopher Forsythe, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Rule 7.7102 Impact
rule_7.7102_impact
The implementation of Texas Rev Commission's Rule 7.7102 is estimated to have an impact ranging from $155 million to $165 million for fiscal year 2026.
"We estimate this impact will range from $155 million to $165 million for the entire fiscal year, including the deferral of incurred post-in-service carrying costs, depreciation and ad valorem taxes."
- Christopher Forsythe, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Capital Expenditures
capital_expenditures
Atmos Energy's capital expenditures for the first half of the fiscal year totaled $2 billion, with over 89% of those investments focused on enhancing the safety and reliability of distribution, transmission and underground storage systems.
"Our capital expenditures for the first half of the fiscal year totaled $2 billion, with over 89% of those investments focused on enhancing the safety and reliability of our distribution, transmission and underground storage systems."
- John Akers, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth strong. Cash Runway weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 0 bullish (none), 3 bearish (Ken Griffin, Klarman, Munger), 3 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, but price is high.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (May 7, 2026): EPS $3.47 vs $3.37 est[FMP], +3.0% beat. D+1 movement: -1.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $3.47 vs $3.37 beat[FMP], stock -1.6% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $1.0B[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 39.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.32[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.0B"[Christopher Forsythe]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This ATO (ATO) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.