7 analysts' median target is $694[FMP target], stock is $859, -19.3% upside potential. After Q2 +16.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +3.8%.
B = MoonshotScore 33[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $4.2B[FMP est], EPS $3.31[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +16.3% beat[FMP] but the stock +3.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Stephen Bramlage promised $183.7M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Stephen Bramlage capex transcript].
Watchlist
Inside Sales Guidance
inside_sales_guidance
Casey's now expects inside same-store sales to increase between 3% to 4% and we expect an inside margin of 41% to 42% for fiscal year 2026.
"The company now expects inside same-store sales to increase between 3% to 4% and we expect an inside margin of 41% to 42%."
- Stephen Bramlage, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
Grocery Margin Increase
grocery_margin_increase
Casey's continues to grow market share, supported by increased demand for higher margin items such as energy drinks and nicotine alternatives.
"The grocery and general merchandise margin was 36%, an increase of 40 basis points from the prior year. The change was impacted by a favorable mix shift within the category, as well as cost of goods management, and that includes manufacturer-funded promotional activity, associated with alternative nicotine products."
- Stephen Bramlage, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
Inside Sales Growth
inside_sales_growth
Casey's reported strong inside same-store sales growth of 3.3% for the quarter, representing a 7.5% increase on a two-year stack basis.
"Inside same-store sales were up 3.3% for the second quarter, or 7.5% on a two-year stack basis, with an average margin of 42.4%."
- Stephen Bramlage, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
Fy26 Ebitda Guidance
fy26_ebitda_guidance
Casey's has updated its fiscal year 2026 EBITDA guidance and now expects an increase of 15% to 17%.
"Fiscal 2026 EBITDA is now expected to increase 15% to 17%."
- Stephen Bramlage, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
Fuel Market Share Growth
fuel_market_share_growth
Casey's continues to grow market share in fuel sales despite an overall decline in the Mid Continent region.
"According to OPIS fuel gallon sold data, the Mid Continent region saw an approximate 2% decline this quarter, so we believe we are continuing to grow market share."
- Stephen Bramlage, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
Prepared Food Sales
prepared_food_sales
Casey's prepared food and dispensed beverage sales were strong, up 4.8% for the quarter, representing a 10.3% increase on a two-year stack basis.
"Same-store prepared food and dispensed beverage was quite strong, sales were up 4.8% or 10.3% on a two-year stack basis. With an average margin of 58.6%."
- Stephen Bramlage, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - December 10, 2025
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. - strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 3 bearish (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger), 1 neutral (Ray Dalio).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, but price is high.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (December 10, 2025): EPS $3.49 vs $3.00 est[FMP], +16.3% beat. D+1 movement: +3.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $3.49 vs $3.00 beat[FMP], stock +3.8% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $183.7M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 7.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Monday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Monday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.31[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $183.7M"[Stephen Bramlage]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This CASY (CASY) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.