2 analysts' median target is $222[FMP target], stock is $176, +26.3% upside potential. After Q1 +10.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -7.2%.
B = MoonshotScore 47[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $1.7B[FMP est], EPS $2.25[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +10.1% beat[FMP] but the stock -7.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. John Gamble promised $120.4M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[John Gamble capex transcript].
Watchlist
Mortgage Revenue Growth
mortgage_revenue_growth
Despite a strong Q1, Equifax is maintaining its 2026 mortgage revenue growth guidance of over 20% due to uncertainty related to the Iran conflict.
"We are maintaining our 2026 guidance for mortgage revenue growth of over 20%, consistent with the framework we provided in February, as a stronger-than-expected first quarter mortgage revenue growth is offset by our expectation of current trends of slightly slower growth over the remainder of the year versus our February guide."
- Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Margin Expansion
margin_expansion
Equifax expects to deliver strong full-year margin expansion, excluding FICO, of 75 basis points from operating leverage of strong top-line growth, higher margin new products, and AI-driven productivity.
"We also expect to deliver strong full year margin expansion, excluding FICO of 75 basis points from operating leverage of strong top line growth, higher margin new products and AI-driven productivity."
- Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Government Revenue Growth
government_revenue_growth
Equifax remains energized about the mid- and long-term growth opportunities for EWS government at both the federal and the state level in meeting new federal requirements regarding accuracy of income validation in Medicaid and SNAP.
"We remain energized about the mid- and long-term growth opportunities for EWS government at both the federal and the state level in meeting new federal requirements regarding accuracy of income validation in Medicaid and SNAP as well as work, education and community engagement requirements and Medicaid benefits."
- Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
TWN Indicator Growth
TWN_indicator_growth
Equifax is delivering TWN income and employment attributes at no cost to its customers to drive credit file share gains and future TWN VOI and VOE growth.
"And as a reminder, Equifax is delivering TWN income and employment attributes at no cost to our customers to drive credit file share gains in TWN VOI and VOE growth in the future."
- Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Capital Allocation
capital_allocation
Equifax has $1.5 billion of capital available in 2026 to invest in both bolt-on M&A and return of cash to shareholders, and returned $327 million to shareholders in Q1.
"In the first quarter, we returned $327 million to shareholders."
- Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 21, 2026): EPS $1.86 vs $1.69 est[FMP], +10.1% beat. D+1 movement: -7.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.86 vs $1.69 beat[FMP], stock -7.2% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $120.4M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 17.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.25[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $120.4M"[John Gamble]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This EFX (EFX) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.