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O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
ORLY - NASDAQ - $93.44 ▲ +%1.75
-
Earnings
Wed 28 Oct
O'Reilly opens the
books on Wednesday evening.
8 analysts' median target is $109[FMP target], stock is $93, +16.7% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +-0.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -3.6%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
C+
BUY
Council 2/6
-
Moonshot 53
C+ = MoonshotScore 53[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Professional Sales guidance reduction from 6% -> 4-6%[Jeremy Adam Fletcher Q-prev transcript] and the current Form 4 signal (0 transactions)[FMP Form 4] prevented an A- grade.
Quick Answer
Q1 consensus: revenue $5.0B[FMP est], EPS $0.92[FMP est]. Jeremy Adam Fletcher lowered Professional Sales guidance to 4-6% (previous 6%) in the Q2 earnings call[Jeremy Adam Fletcher Q-prev transcript]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$0.92
EPS Estimate
Last year $0.72 - +8% YoY YoY
6%
Professional Sales Guidance
Previous quarter was 6%
0
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 0 quarters
Q2 EPS +-0.2% beat[FMP] but the stock -3.6% D+1[FMP D+1].
%51.4
Expectation / Guide
Gross Margin Outlook
gross_margin_outlook
Q2 gross margin remained flat at 51.4%, and the company is maintaining its full-year gross margin guidance range of 51.5% to 52%.
"For the second quarter, our gross margin of 51.4% was unchanged from the second quarter of 2025. Given our in line first half performance, and the current stable market environment, we are maintaining our full year gross margin guidance range of 51.5% to 52%."
- Brent G. Kirby - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
Comparable Store Sales Guidance
comparable_store_sales_guidance
O'Reilly exceeded expectations with 6% comparable store sales growth in Q2, leading to an increased full-year guidance range of 4% to 6%.
"Our comp growth of 6% surpassed our expectations driven by solid results in both our professional and DIY businesses. As noted in yesterday's press release, we have increased from the previous range of 3% to 5% to a range of 4% to 6%."
- Brad W. Beckham - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
Inflation Outlook
inflation_outlook
While Q2 saw 5.5% same SKU inflation, this benefit is projected to moderate to 1% to 2% for the back half of the year.
"The growth in average ticket was primarily the result of same SKU inflation, which totaled 5.5% for our consolidated business and was in line with our expectations. As a result of this dynamic, we are projecting the inflation benefit to moderate to 1% to 2% for the back half of 2026 with the third quarter expected at the top end and continued moderation to the bottom end of that range by the fourth quarter."
- Brad W. Beckham - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
17 million
Investor Focus
Share Repurchase Program
share_repurchase_program
The company repurchased 17 million shares for $1.5 billion in Q2, bringing year-to-date repurchases to 34 million shares for a total investment of $3.1 billion.
"during the second quarter, we repurchased 17 million shares at an average share price of $90.40, for a total investment of $1.5 billion. Our 2026 year-to-date share repurchases through the date of yesterday's press release totaled 34 million shares For a total investment of $3.1 billion."
- Jeremy Adam Fletcher - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
Professional Diy Performance
professional_diy_performance
The professional business was the primary contributor with 10% comparable store sales growth, while the DIY business saw low-single-digit growth and declining transaction counts.
"Our professional business continues to be the larger contributor to total comps. Comparable store sales on this side of our business grew right at 10% in the second quarter... Average ticket strength was the primary contributor to our low-single-digit DIY comparable store sales increase in the second quarter. This benefit was partially offset by pressure to transaction counts, which were down low single digits and slightly below our expectations in part due to headwinds in hot-weather-related categories."
- Brad W. Beckham - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
53 / 100
multi-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0
Q2 vs Q3: moderate growth (+4.0%)
Gross Margin5.0
Q2: high margin (51.4%)
Operating Leverage2.0
op margin healthy (20.2%)
Cash Runway10.0
FCF very strong ($0.7B, 2.3x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0
low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0
RSI 61.0 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0
strong buy consensus (81%)
Council Score
2 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +16.7%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 61
Klarman value - target upside +16.7%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +16.7%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued
Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
61.0
RSI 61.0 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+5.80
price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$88
stock 5.8% above - short-term support
200d MA
$93
stock 0.5% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-27%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$109
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$93
Pre-earnings position
Support
$79
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$79-$109 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
O'Reilly's last 8 quarters: 0 consecutive beats.
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.85 vs $0.83 est - -2.9%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$0.71 vs $0.73 est - -4.0%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.72 vs $0.69 est - +8.4%
MISS
Q2 FY26
$0.86 vs $0.86 est - -3.6%
Q2 (July 30, 2026): EPS $0.86 vs $0.86 est[FMP], +-0.2% beat. D+1 movement: -3.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
Professional Sales below 35%
Q2: EPS $0.86 vs $0.86 beat[FMP], stock -3.6% D+1[FMP]. Jeremy Adam Fletcher Q2 transcript: "Our team's steadfast commitment to providing consistently high levels of service to our customers drove a comparable store sales growth of 6% for our second quarter. As noted in yesterday's press release, we have increased from the previous range of 3% to 5% to a range of 4% to 6%."[Jeremy Adam Fletcher].
"Our team's steadfast commitment to providing consistently high levels of service to our customers drove a comparable store sales growth of 6% for our second quarter. As noted in yesterday's press release, we have increased from the previous range of 3% to 5% to a range of 4% to 6%."
- Jeremy Adam Fletcher, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $307.6M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 20.2%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"Capital expenditures in the first six months of 2026 were $552 million and we still expect a total capital expenditure investment for 2026 of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion."
- Jeremy Adam Fletcher, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $0.92 + Professional Sales >= 6%
Threshold: EPS > $0.92[FMP est] and Professional Sales >= 6%[Jeremy Adam Fletcher transcript].
Target: Break above median target $109[FMP target]; high target $115[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.92 + Professional Sales 4-6%
Threshold: EPS approx $0.92[FMP est], Professional Sales 4-6%, Q1 CapEx < $307.6M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $93[FMP] and median $109[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.89 or Professional Sales < 35% or CapEx >= $307.6M
Threshold: EPS < $0.89[FMP estx0.97] or Professional Sales < 35%[Jeremy Adam Fletcher guidance lower minus 2].
Target: Current $93[FMP] below SMA200 $93, if rejection continues, $79[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 8 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$109
12-month median target price (+16.7% gap to the analyst consensus median)
Risk Management
$79
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$88 - 50-day MA (above, +5.8%)
$93 - 200-day MA (above, +0.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ORLY Q1 FY27
C+
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $0.92[FMP], Professional Sales guidance 4-6%[Jeremy Adam Fletcher], CapEx threshold "below $307.6M". Three anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
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3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage
TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades
Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card. Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Oct 28, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Oct 29, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Dec 12, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Jan 28, 2027EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the ORLY earnings preview cover?
This O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in ORLY earnings?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.