O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
ORLY - NASDAQ - $96.65 ▼ -%2.77
-
Earnings Wed 29 Jul

O'Reilly opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

13 analysts' median target is $110[FMP target], stock is $97, +13.8% upside potential. After Q1 +0.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +8.4%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
C+
HOLD Council 2/6 - Moonshot 50

C+ = MoonshotScore 50[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $4.9B[FMP est], EPS $0.86[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.86 EPS Estimate Last year $0.71 - +10% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +0.1% beat[FMP] but the stock +8.4% D+1[FMP D+1]. Jeremy Fletcher promised $244.4M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Jeremy Fletcher capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

244 Risk Indicator

Capex 2026

capex_2026

O'Reilly expects a total capital expenditure investment in 2026 of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion.

"Capital expenditures for the first quarter were $244 million, and we still expect a total capital expenditure investment in 2026 of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion."

- Brent Kirby - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
3.15 Expectation / Guide

Eps Guidance Increase

eps_guidance_increase

O'Reilly is increasing its full-year diluted earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.15 to $3.25.

"Before I wrap up, I would like to note that we are increasing our full-year diluted earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.15 to $3.25."

- Brad Beckham - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
3% Expectation / Guide

Full Year Guidance

full_year_guidance

O'Reilly has maintained its full-year comparable store sales guidance range of 3% to 5%.

"We have maintained our full-year comparable store sales guidance range of 3% to 5%."

- Brad Beckham - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
8.1% Investor Focus

Comp Sales Growth

comp_sales_growth

O'Reilly surpassed expectations with an 8.1% increase in comparable store sales in the first quarter.

"Our comp growth of 8.1% solidly surpassed our expectations, and we were pleased to see above-planned contributions from both sides of our business in the quarter."

- Brad Beckham - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
874 Investor Focus

Inventory Per Store

inventory_per_store

Inventory per store finished the first quarter at $874 thousand, which was up 8.5% from this time last year.

"Inventory per store finished the first quarter at $874 thousand, which was up 8.5% from this time last year and up 0.5% from the end of the year."

- Brent Kirby - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 50 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+0.8%, below threshold)
Gross Margin5.0Q1: high margin (51.5%)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (18.5%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.8B, 3.2x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 59.3 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (81%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +13.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 59
Klarman value - target upside +13.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +13.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthWeak
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
59.3 RSI 59.3 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+4.40 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$93 stock 4.4% above - short-term support
200d MA
$97 stock 0.6% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+32% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$110
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$97
Pre-earnings position
Support
$83
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$83-$110 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

O'Reilly's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q2 FY25
$0.78 vs $0.78 est - +2.9%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.85 vs $0.83 est - -2.9%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$0.71 vs $0.73 est - -4.0%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.72 vs $0.72 est - +8.4%

Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $0.72 vs $0.72 est[FMP], +0.1% beat. D+1 movement: +8.4%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.84 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $0.72 vs $0.72 beat[FMP], stock +8.4% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $244.4M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 18.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.86 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.86[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $110[FMP target]; high target $115[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.86 + CapEx < $244.4M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.86[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $244.4M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $97[FMP] and median $110[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.84 or CapEx >= $244.4M
Threshold: EPS < $0.84[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $97[FMP] below SMA200 $97, if rejection continues, $83[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 13 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$110
12-month median target price (+13.8% upside potential)
22
BUY
4
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$83
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$93 - 50-day MA (above, +4.4%)
$97 - 200-day MA (below, -0.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ORLY Q4 FY26
C+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.86[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $244.4M"[Jeremy Fletcher]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 29, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 30, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 12, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 29, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the ORLY earnings preview cover?

This ORLY (ORLY) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in ORLY earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.