7 analysts' median target is $119[FMP target], stock is $99, +19.4% upside potential. After Q2 +4.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.0%.
C+ = MoonshotScore 47[9-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $2.3B[FMP est], EPS $2.66[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +4.8% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.0% D+1[FMP D+1]. Tucker Marshall promised $71.5M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Tucker Marshall capex transcript].
Watchlist
Fy27 Eps Growth
fy27_eps_growth
With a stabilizing commodity environment and an off-tariff environment, as we continue to generate cash and pay down debt and we deliver a level of business momentum, there could be a path to that.
"But the essence that we are trying to communicate is that with a stabilizing commodity environment and an off-tariff environment, as we continue to generate cash and pay down debt and we deliver a level of business momentum, there could be a path to that, and that's what we were trying to just lay out as you think about a $9 midpoint at this fiscal year."
- Tucker Marshall, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 25, 2025
Tariff Impact Fy27
tariff_impact_fy27
Stepping into FY 2027, the $0.50 impact related to green coffee tariffs should be viewed as a tailwind, while in FY 2026, it continues to be a headwind.
"Andrew, good morning. The predominance of the $0.50, if not all, is related to green coffee tariffs. And so, therefore, stepping into FY 2027, it should be viewed as a tailwind while in FY 2026, it continues to be a headwind."
- Tucker Marshall, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 25, 2025
Pet Portfolio Growth
pet_portfolio_growth
We are anticipating low single-digit growth for our pet portfolio in the third and fourth quarters behind the momentum of Milk Bone and Meow Mix.
"Rob, in support of your question, we are anticipating low single-digit growth for our pet portfolio in the third and fourth quarters behind the momentum of Milk Bone and Meow Mix."
- Tucker Marshall, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 25, 2025
Sweet Baked Snacks Improvement
sweet_baked_snacks_improvement
We are pleased with the progress in Sweet Baked Snacks and the Hostess brand, noting improved performance in c-store and improving volume shares.
"First, we are very pleased with the progress that we're making on Sweet Baked Snacks and the Hostess brand. As you noted, we are seeing sequential improvement. Notably, we're seeing improved performance in c-store. Our volume shares are improving."
- Mark Smucker, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 25, 2025
Uncrustables Billion Dollar Brand
uncrustables_billion_dollar_brand
I can tell you that it still demonstrates growth and it is demonstrating a path or trajectory to being a billion-dollar brand by the end of this fiscal year.
"Much of that is driven by the spreads portfolio, and we really haven't taken up the outlook on the Uncrustables brand. I can tell you that it still demonstrates growth and it is demonstrating a path or trajectory to being a billion-dollar brand by the end of this fiscal year."
- Tucker Marshall, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - November 25, 2025
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Ray Dalio), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (November 25, 2025): EPS $2.38 vs $2.27 est[FMP], +4.8% beat. D+1 movement: -0.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $2.38 vs $2.27 beat[FMP], stock -0.0% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $71.5M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 20.2%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.66[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $71.5M"[Tucker Marshall]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This SJM (SJM) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.