Steel Dynamics, Inc.
STLD - NASDAQ - $235.10 ▲ +%0.94
-
Earnings Mon 20 Jul

Steel opens the
books on Monday evening.

2 analysts' median target is $190[FMP target], stock is $235, -19.2% upside potential. After Q1 +-2.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
SELL Council 2/6 - Moonshot 41

B+ = MoonshotScore 41[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $5.6B[FMP est], EPS $4.00[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$4.00 EPS Estimate Last year $1.82 - +99% YoY YoY
0 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 0 quarters

Q1 EPS +-2.1% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Theresa E. Wagler promised $138.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Theresa E. Wagler capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$557 Investor Focus

Steel Operations Income

steel_operations_income

Steel operations generated operating income of $557 million in the first quarter, a 73% sequential increase.

"Our steel operations generated operating income of $557 million in the first quarter, a 73% sequential increase as average selling prices per ton increased $86."

- Theresa E. Wagler - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
$47 Investor Focus

Metals Recycling Income

metals_recycling_income

Metals recycling operations achieved first quarter operating income of $47 million, or 155% higher than sequential earnings.

"From a metals recycling perspective, first quarter 2026 operating income was $47 million, or 155% higher than sequential earnings, based on higher pricing for both ferrous and nonferrous scrap."

- Theresa E. Wagler - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
$65 Investor Focus

Aluminum Operations Loss

aluminum_operations_loss

Aluminum operations reported an operating loss of $65 million in the first quarter.

"As for the related first quarter financial impact, earnings for aluminum were lower than we originally expected, with an operating loss of $65 million."

- Theresa E. Wagler - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
3.6 Investor Focus

Record Steel Shipments

record_steel_shipments

The company achieved record quarterly steel shipments of 3.6 million tons in the first quarter.

"Several highlights for the quarter included record quarterly steel shipments of 3.6 million tons."

- Mark D. Millett - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026
90% Investor Focus

Aluminum Capacity Exit Rate

aluminum_capacity_exit_rate

The company continues to believe it will be exiting 2026 at a monthly rate of 90% capacity.

"We continue to believe we will be exiting 2026 at a monthly rate of 90% capacity."

- Mark D. Millett - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 21, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 41 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Price Momentum strong. Gross Margin weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth7.0Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+14.0%)
Gross Margin1.0Q1: low margin (14.7%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (11.3%)
Cash Runway4.0FCF under pressure ($0.0B FCF vs $0.1B CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 69.8 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (64%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 2 bearish (Klarman, Munger), 2 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -19.2%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 70
Klarman value - target upside -19.2%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside -19.2%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
69.8 RSI 69.8 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+20.00 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$196 stock 20.0% above - short-term support
200d MA
$166 stock 41.5% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-10% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$190
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$235
Pre-earnings position
Support
$141
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$141-$190 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Steel's last 8 quarters: 0 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q2 FY25
$2.01 vs $2.24 est - -1.7%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.74 vs $2.63 est - +5.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.82 vs $1.70 est - +1.3%
MISS
Q1 FY26
$2.78 vs $2.84 est - -1.1%

Q1 (April 21, 2026): EPS $2.78 vs $2.84 est[FMP], +-2.1% beat. D+1 movement: -1.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.88 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $2.84 beat[FMP], stock -1.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $138.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 11.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $4.00 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $4.00[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $190[FMP target]; high target $207[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $4.00 + CapEx < $138.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $4.00[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $138.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $235[FMP] and median $190[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.88 or CapEx >= $138.0M
Threshold: EPS < $3.88[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $235 below SMA200 $166[FMP], if rejection continues, $141[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 2 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$190
12-month median target price (-19.2% upside potential)
7
BUY
3
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$141
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$196 - 50-day MA (above, +20.0%)
$166 - 200-day MA (above, +41.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - STLD Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Monday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Monday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $4.00[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $138.0M"[Theresa E. Wagler]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).

3 subscriptions. 1 platform.

Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts

Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing

Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.

Try Pro free for 14 days STLD dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 20, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 21, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 3, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 20, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the STLD earnings preview cover?

This STLD (STLD) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in STLD earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.