6 analysts' median target is $225[FMP target], stock is $160, +40.0% upside potential. After Q4 +-76.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.7%.
C+ = MoonshotScore 33[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $5.2B[FMP est], EPS $1.32[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q4 EPS +-76.5% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Kristopher Moldovan promised $1.5B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Kristopher Moldovan capex transcript].
Watchlist
Cash Generation Outlook
cash_generation_outlook
Vistra projects to generate more than $10 billion of cash through year-end 2027.
"Based on our expectations for 2026 and our previously communicated range of midpoint opportunities for 2027 as well as the expected contribution in 2026 and 2027 from the Meta PPAs and the closing of the Cogentrix acquisition, we project to generate more than $10 billion of cash through year-end 2027."
- Kristopher Moldovan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 26, 2026
Load Growth Outlook
load_growth_outlook
Vistra expects calendar years 2026 and 2027 to continue to show growth, which would mark the first 4-year period of sustained growth since the 4-year period ending 2007.
"We expect calendar years 2026 and 2027 to continue to show growth, which would mark the first 4-year period of sustained growth since the 4-year period ending 2007."
- James Burke, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 26, 2026
Cogentrix Acquisition Accretion
cogentrix_acquisition_accretion
The Cogentrix acquisition is expected to deliver mid-single-digit adjusted free cash flow before growth per share accretion in 2027, with a high single-digit accretion on average over the '27 to '29 period.
"From a financial perspective, we view the purchase price as attractive at approximately $730 per kilowatt of capacity, net of expected tax benefits, and we expect the transaction to deliver mid-single-digit adjusted free cash flow before growth per share accretion in 2027, with a high single-digit accretion on average over the '27 to '29 period."
- James Burke, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 26, 2026
Share Repurchase Program
share_repurchase_program
Since initiating the program in November 2021, we have retired approximately 167 million shares at an average cost below $36 per share, delivering over $20 billion of value for our long-term shareholders.
"Since initiating the program in November 2021, we have retired approximately 167 million shares at an average cost below $36 per share, delivering over $20 billion of value for our long-term shareholders."
- Kristopher Moldovan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 26, 2026
Record Financial Performance
record_financial_performance
Vistra achieved record financial performance in 2025, delivering approximately $5.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA and approximately $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth.
"For the full year, we achieved approximately $5.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA and approximately $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth, both meaningfully above the midpoint of our original guidance ranges."
- James Burke, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 26, 2026
Nuclear Ppa Impact
nuclear_ppa_impact
Upon achieving full ramp of all the nuclear agreements, we see a pathway to nearly 25% adjusted free cash flow before growth accretion on an annual basis.
"Upon achieving full ramp of all the nuclear agreements, we see a pathway to nearly 25% adjusted free cash flow before growth accretion on an annual basis."
- James Burke, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 26, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Price Momentum and News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q4 (February 26, 2026): EPS $0.54 vs $2.31 est[FMP], +-76.5% beat. D+1 movement: -1.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q4: EPS $0.54 vs $2.31 beat[FMP], stock -1.7% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.
Q4 CapEx $1.5B[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin -74.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.32[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.5B"[Kristopher Moldovan]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This VST (VST) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.