Waste Management, Inc.
WM - NYSE - $215.37 ▼ -%2.75
-
Earnings Mon 27 Jul

Waste opens the
books on Monday evening.

0 analysts' median target is $258[FMP target], stock is $215, +19.8% upside potential. After Q1 +3.4% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +1.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 2/6 - Moonshot 41

B+ = MoonshotScore 41[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $6.7B[FMP est], EPS $2.01[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.01 EPS Estimate Last year $1.93 - +5% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +3.4% beat[FMP] but the stock +1.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. David Reed promised $650.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[David Reed capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

27% Investor Focus

Recycling Ebitda Growth

recycling_ebitda_growth

In the Recycling segment, even though pricing for single-stream commodities declined 27%. Operating EBITDA grew by 18% as we realized automation benefits that lower labor costs and higher quality material and processed 9% more volume.

"In the Recycling segment, even though pricing for single-stream commodities declined 27%. Operating EBITDA grew by 18% as we realized automation benefits that lower labor costs and higher quality material and processed 9% more volume."

- James Fish, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
6.4% Investor Focus

Collection Disposal Growth

collection_disposal_growth

WM's Collection and Disposal business delivered strong performance, achieving 6.4% operating EBITDA growth, supported by focus on customer lifetime value, operational excellence, and network advantages.

"We First, we grew our Collection and Disposal business, achieving 6.4% operating EBITDA growth, supported by our focus on customer lifetime value, operational excellence and network advantages."

- James Fish, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$920 million Investor Focus

Free Cash Flow Generation

free_cash_flow_generation

WM's strong operating performance translated into significant free cash flow generation with Q1 free cash flow of $920 million, nearly doubling from the prior year.

"Our strong operating performance translated into significant free cash flow generation with Q1 free cash flow of $920 million, nearly doubling from the prior year."

- James Fish, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
seven Investor Focus

Renewable Energy Ebitda Growth

renewable_energy_ebitda_growth

In Renewable Energy, operating EBITDA more than doubled in the quarter, driven by the completion of seven new renewable natural gas facilities since the first quarter of 2025.

"In Renewable Energy, operating EBITDA more than doubled in the quarter, driven by the completion of seven new renewable natural gas facilities since the first quarter of 2025."

- James Fish, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$730 million Investor Focus

Shareholder Returns

shareholder_returns

WM returned about $730 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

"This enabled us to return about $730 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases."

- James Fish, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 41 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-3.2%, contraction)
Gross Margin4.0Q1: average margin (40.7%)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (17.9%)
Cash Runway9.0FCF strong ($0.9B FCF, covers CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 33.2 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment7.0majority buy (68%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +19.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 33
Klarman value - target upside +19.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +19.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
33.2 RSI 33.2 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-6.90 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$231 stock 6.9% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$223 stock 3.4% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+29% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$258
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$215
Pre-earnings position
Support
$190
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$190-$258 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Waste's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.92 vs $1.89 est - +3.4%
MISS
Q3 FY25
$1.98 vs $2.01 est - -4.5%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.93 vs $1.95 est - -3.7%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.81 vs $1.75 est - +1.3%

Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $1.81 vs $1.75 est[FMP], +3.4% beat. D+1 movement: +1.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.95 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.81 vs $1.75 beat[FMP], stock +1.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $650.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 17.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.01 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.01[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $258[FMP target]; high target $264[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.01 + CapEx < $650.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.01[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $650.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $215[FMP] and median $258[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.95 or CapEx >= $650.0M
Threshold: EPS < $1.95[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $215 below SMA200 $223[FMP], if rejection continues, $190[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 0 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$258
12-month median target price (+19.8% upside potential)
19
BUY
9
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$190
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$231 - 50-day MA (below, -6.9%)
$223 - 200-day MA (below, -3.4%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - WM Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Monday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Monday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.01[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $650.0M"[David Reed]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days WM dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 27, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 28, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 10, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 27, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the WM earnings preview cover?

This WM (WM) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in WM earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.