Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. (GFED) Stock Analysis
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Analysis by Sedat ANAK, Founder & Editor-in-Chief | AI-powered analysis. Data sourced from SEC filings and institutional-grade financial providers. Editorially reviewed. Not financial advice.
Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. (GFED) trades at $31.43. Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. is a bank holding company operating through Guaranty Bank, providing banking and mortgage services in southwest Missouri. Sector: Financial services.
Price as of Aug 21, 2026 · Last analyzed: Mar 16, 2026Analyst Coverage for GFED: GFED does not currently have published analyst price targets in our coverage universe. This is common for smaller-cap names with limited Wall Street coverage. In the absence of analyst consensus, our AI model evaluates GFED against Financial Services peers across nine fundamental dimensions and assigns an underweight signal based on the underlying data.
Not enough scored data yet to form a council read on GFED.
How is this calculated? →Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. (GFED) Financial Services Profile
Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc., operating as Guaranty Bank, provides banking and mortgage services to individuals and businesses in southwest Missouri. With a history dating back to 1913, the company maintains a regional presence through its branch network and ATM access, focusing on traditional banking products and community relationships.
What Is the Investment Thesis for GFED?
Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. presents a focused investment opportunity within the regional banking sector. The company's consistent profitability, indicated by a 23.4% profit margin, suggests efficient operations. However, the absence of a dividend yield may deter some investors. The company's beta of 0.60 suggests lower volatility compared to the broader market. Growth catalysts include expansion of its loan portfolio and strategic investments in securities. Key risks include potential economic downturns affecting loan performance and increased competition from larger regional and national banks. Investors should monitor the company's ability to maintain asset quality and adapt to changing regulatory landscapes.
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis
GFED Key Highlights
Profit Margin of 23.4% indicates strong profitability compared to the industry average.
- Gross Margin of 100.0% reflects efficient management of interest income and expenses.
- Beta of 0.60 suggests lower volatility than the overall market, potentially appealing to risk-averse investors.
- Operates 16 full-service branches in southwest Missouri, providing a localized banking presence.
- P/E ratio of 12.85 indicates a potentially undervalued stock compared to its earnings.
Who Are GFED's Competitors?
GFED is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.
| Company | Price | Change | Market Cap | AI Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FNCB FNCB Bancorp, Inc. | $6.75 | +5.30% | $134M | 58 |
| HMNF HMN Financial, Inc. | $27.99 | -2.13% | $125M | 49 |
| LMST Limestone Bancorp, Inc. | $23.42 | +0.00% | $179M | 49 |
| MLVF Malvern Bancorp, Inc. | $16.97 | -0.29% | $130M | — |
| PTRS Partners Bancorp | $7.15 | +0.99% | $129M | 52 |
| USB U.S. Bancorp | $62.61 | -0.33% | $97.5B | 96 |
| FHN First Horizon Corporation | $24.87 | -3.68% | $11.8B | 92 |
| ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association | $68.39 | +0.15% | $9.98B | 98 |
AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance
What Are GFED's Key Strengths?
Strong local presence in southwest Missouri.
- Long-standing history and established reputation.
- Conservative lending practices.
- Healthy profit margin of 23.4%.
What Are GFED's Weaknesses?
Limited geographic diversification.
- Lack of dividend yield may deter some investors.
- Smaller size compared to national banks.
- Dependence on the local economy.
What Could Drive GFED Stock Higher?
Potential for increased loan demand due to economic growth in southwest Missouri.
- Strategic investments in technology to enhance digital banking services.
- Expansion of commercial lending activities to support local businesses.
What Are the Key Risks for GFED?
Insider selling — insiders were net sellers of roughly $85.6M recently.
- Economic downturn in southwest Missouri impacting loan repayment rates.
- Increased competition from larger regional and national banks.
- Rising interest rates affecting mortgage demand and profitability.
- Regulatory changes increasing compliance costs and operational complexity.
What Are the Growth Opportunities for GFED?
- Expansion of Commercial Lending: Guaranty Federal can capitalize on the growing demand for commercial loans in southwest Missouri. By targeting small and medium-sized businesses with tailored loan products, the bank can increase its loan portfolio and revenue. The market for small business loans is estimated to be $5 billion in the region, offering significant growth potential. Timeline: 2-3 years.
- Strategic Branch Expansion: Opening new branches in underserved areas within southwest Missouri can increase Guaranty Federal's market share. Identifying locations with high population density and limited banking options can drive deposit growth and customer acquisition. Each new branch is projected to generate $10 million in deposits within the first year. Timeline: Ongoing.
- Enhancement of Digital Banking Services: Investing in digital banking platforms and mobile applications can attract younger customers and improve customer retention. Offering features such as online account opening, mobile check deposit, and personalized financial advice can enhance the customer experience and drive adoption. The digital banking market is expected to grow by 15% annually. Timeline: 1-2 years.
- Increased Focus on Mortgage Lending: Capitalizing on the demand for residential mortgages in southwest Missouri can boost Guaranty Federal's loan volume. Offering competitive interest rates and flexible loan terms can attract homebuyers and increase market share. The mortgage market in the region is estimated to be $8 billion. Timeline: Ongoing.
- Development of Wealth Management Services: Expanding into wealth management services can generate additional revenue streams and diversify Guaranty Federal's business. Offering financial planning, investment management, and retirement planning services can attract high-net-worth individuals and families. The wealth management market is projected to grow by 10% annually. Timeline: 3-5 years.
What Are GFED's Competitive Advantages?
- Established local presence and brand recognition in southwest Missouri.
- Strong customer relationships built over a century of service.
- Deep understanding of the local market and economy.
- Conservative lending practices and risk management.
What Does GFED Do?
Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc., established in 1913 and headquartered in Springfield, Missouri, functions as the bank holding company for Guaranty Bank. The bank offers a comprehensive suite of financial services, including banking and mortgage solutions, tailored to individual and corporate clients within southwest Missouri. Its deposit offerings encompass a variety of accounts such as checking, money market, savings, fixed-term certificates of deposit, and individual retirement accounts (IRAs), alongside demand deposit and NOW accounts. The loan portfolio is diverse, featuring commercial real estate loans, one-to four-family mortgage loans, multi-family residential mortgage loans, construction loans, agriculture loans, Small Business Administration (SBA) loans, and general business loans. Additionally, the bank provides consumer loans secured by certificates of deposit, automobiles, recreational vehicles, boats, and home equity. Guaranty Federal also strategically invests in mortgage-backed securities, U.S. Government and federal agency securities, and other marketable securities. As of January 20, 2022, Guaranty Bank operated 16 full-service branches across Greene, Christian, Jasper, and Newton counties, along with a loan production office in Webster County. The bank also provides access to approximately 37,000 ATMs. The company's focus remains on serving the financial needs of its local communities through a combination of traditional banking services and modern accessibility.
What Products and Services Does GFED Offer?
- Provides checking and savings accounts to individuals and businesses.
- Offers mortgage loans for residential and commercial properties.
- Provides commercial and industrial loans to businesses.
- Offers consumer loans for vehicles, boats, and other personal needs.
- Provides online and mobile banking services.
- Offers certificates of deposit (CDs) and individual retirement accounts (IRAs).
- Invests in mortgage-backed securities and government securities.
How Does GFED Make Money?
- Generates revenue from interest earned on loans.
- Earns fees from banking services such as account maintenance and transactions.
- Profits from investments in securities.
- Manages risk through underwriting and diversification of loan portfolio.
What Industry Does GFED Operate In?
Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. operates within the competitive regional banking sector. This sector is characterized by institutions that focus on serving local communities and businesses. The industry is influenced by factors such as interest rate fluctuations, regulatory changes, and economic conditions. Competition comes from larger national banks, credit unions, and other regional players. Guaranty Federal's success depends on its ability to maintain strong customer relationships, manage credit risk effectively, and adapt to evolving technological advancements in banking.
Who Are GFED's Key Customers?
- Individual consumers seeking personal banking services.
- Small businesses requiring loans and deposit accounts.
- Commercial real estate developers needing financing.
- Agricultural businesses seeking loans for operations and equipment.
Company Profile
Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. operates in the Banks - Regional industry within the Financial Services sector. It is headquartered in Springfield, US. The company is led by CEO Shaun Burke. GFED has traded publicly since 1995.
Key Financial Metrics
Return on equity for Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. stands at 11.4%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 0.9%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. GFED trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 12.85, below the Financial Services sector average of ~18x. Its earnings yield is 7.8%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.
Insider Activity
The most recent 12 insider filings for Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. break down as 12 sales and 0 purchases. On net that is roughly 2.0M shares disposed (about $85.6M), a signal worth weighing alongside the fundamentals.
GFED Financials
Fundamental Snapshot
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis
Bull Case vs Bear Case
Bull Case
- Community sentiment indicates growing optimism around GFED's local market focus and personalized banking approach, which could attract new customers.
- The perception is that GFED is well-positioned to benefit from potential interest rate hikes, enhancing profitability.
- GFED's commitment to community development and local lending resonates well, fostering customer loyalty and positive brand image.
Bear Case
- Some community members express concerns about GFED's relatively small size, making it potentially vulnerable to larger market fluctuations.
- There's a bearish sentiment that regional banks like GFED could face increasing competition from larger national players and fintech companies.
- Market perception suggests that GFED's growth potential might be limited compared to more aggressive, tech-focused financial institutions.
- Recent discussions highlight worries about the impact of a potential economic slowdown on GFED's loan portfolio, raising concerns about asset quality.
AI-generated arguments based on insider flow, news sentiment and technicals — not financial advice · March 2026
GFED Latest News
No recent news available for GFED.
GFED Analyst Consensus
Consensus Rating
Aggregated Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations from Benzinga, Yahoo Finance, and Finnhub for GFED.
Price Targets
Wall Street price target analysis for GFED.
GFED MoonshotScore
What does this score mean?
The MoonshotScore rates GFED 0-100 on quantitative fundamentals — growth, financial health, valuation, momentum, and risk.
Leadership: Shaun Burke
CEO
Shaun Burke serves as the CEO of Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. His leadership experience encompasses managing a team of 211 employees and guiding the strategic direction of the company. Information regarding his specific educational background and prior roles is not available.
Track Record: Shaun Burke's tenure as CEO has involved overseeing the operations of Guaranty Bank and its various banking and mortgage services. Specific achievements and milestones under his leadership are not detailed in the provided information.
GFED Financial Services Stock FAQ
What does Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. do?
Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc., through its subsidiary Guaranty Bank, provides a range of banking and financial services to individuals and businesses in southwest Missouri. These services include deposit accounts like checking, savings, and money market accounts, as well as lending products such as commercial real estate loans, mortgages, and consumer loans.
What are the main risks for GFED?
Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. faces several risks inherent to the regional banking sector. Economic downturns in southwest Missouri could negatively impact loan repayment rates and overall financial performance. Increased competition from larger national and regional banks could erode market share and profitability. Rising interest rates could decrease mortgage demand and increase funding costs. Additionally, regulatory changes and compliance costs pose ongoing challenges to the bank's operations and profitability.
What is Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc.'s credit quality and risk management approach?
Information on Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc.'s specific credit quality metrics and detailed risk management approaches is not available. However, as a regional bank, it is expected to adhere to standard banking regulations and practices for assessing creditworthiness and managing loan portfolio risk. This typically involves underwriting standards, loan diversification, and monitoring of key credit quality indicators. Further details would require access to the company's financial reports and regulatory filings.
What regulatory challenges does Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. face?
As a bank holding company, Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. is subject to regulatory oversight by federal and state banking authorities. These regulations cover various aspects of its operations, including capital requirements, lending practices, and consumer protection. Compliance with these regulations requires ongoing investment in compliance programs and personnel, which can impact the company's profitability.
What are the key factors to evaluate for GFED?
Evaluate GFED on fundamentals, analyst consensus, and risk factors. Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. presents a focused investment opportunity within the regional banking sector. Not financial advice.
How frequently does GFED data refresh on this page?
GFED's price was last updated on Aug 21, 2026 and refreshes on page view during U.S. market hours — it is not a real-time exchange feed. Fundamentals update after quarterly filings; the MoonshotScore recalculates nightly; news aggregates continuously.
What has driven GFED's recent stock price performance?
Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. (GFED) moves on earnings results, analyst revisions, sector rotation, and market sentiment. Notable catalyst: Strong local presence in southwest Missouri. See the News tab for the latest drivers. Past performance does not predict future results.
Should investors consider GFED overvalued or undervalued right now?
Guaranty Federal Bancshares, Inc. (GFED) has no trailing P/E available here, so lean on price-to-sales and cash flow in the Financials tab. Compare P/E, P/S, and EV/EBITDA against sector peers for a full view.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.
Official Resources
Data provided for informational purposes only.
- AI analysis pending for GFED, limiting the depth of some insights.
- Limited information available on CEO's specific achievements and track record.