Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis

Why this analysis is different

• A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Consumer Business Overview

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a dominant player in the U.S. beauty retail market, distinguished by its extensive product selection, including cosmetics, skincare, and salon services. Its competitive advantage lies in its large store footprint and integrated online platform, catering to a broad customer base seeking both prestige and mass-market beauty solutions.

What Is the Investment Thesis for ULTA?

Ulta Beauty presents a notable research candidate due to its strong market position and growth potential. With a market capitalization of $23.0B and a P/E ratio of 20.01, the company demonstrates financial stability. A gross margin of 39.1% and a profit margin of 9.3% indicate efficient operations. Key growth catalysts include expansion of its store network and enhanced online presence. The company's beta of 0.95 suggests lower volatility compared to the market. However, potential risks include increased competition from online retailers and changing consumer preferences. Ulta Beauty's ability to adapt to evolving market dynamics and maintain its competitive edge will be crucial for sustained growth.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

ULTA Key Highlights

Market Cap of $23.0B reflects Ulta Beauty's significant presence in the specialty retail sector.

• P/E Ratio of 20.01 indicates a reasonable valuation compared to its earnings.
• Gross Margin of 39.1% demonstrates effective cost management and pricing strategies.
• Profit Margin of 9.3% highlights the company's ability to convert revenue into profit.
• Operates 1,308 retail stores across 50 states as of March 2022, providing a wide geographic footprint.

Who Are ULTA's Competitors?

ULTA is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance This table mixes two scoring engines — compare a number only with others carrying the same tag.

What Are ULTA's Key Strengths?

Large store network across 50 states.

• Wide range of products and services.
• Strong brand recognition and customer loyalty.
• Integrated online and offline presence.

What Are ULTA's Weaknesses?

Reliance on the U.S. market.

• Exposure to economic cycles.
• Potential for inventory obsolescence.
• Dependence on third-party brands.

What Could Drive ULTA Stock Higher?

Expansion of store network in underserved markets.

• Enhancement of online presence and mobile applications.
• Expansion of private label product offerings.
• Enhancement of salon service offerings to attract more customers.
• Potential partnerships and collaborations with beauty brands and influencers.

What Are the Key Risks for ULTA?

Increased competition from online retailers and direct-to-consumer brands.

• Changing consumer preferences and beauty trends.
• Economic downturns affecting consumer spending on discretionary items.
• Supply chain disruptions impacting product availability and costs.
• Labor market challenges and wage inflation.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for ULTA?

• Expansion of Store Network: Ulta Beauty has the opportunity to expand its store network in underserved markets. By opening new stores in strategic locations, the company can increase its market reach and attract new customers. The beauty retail market is estimated to be worth billions of dollars, providing ample opportunity for growth. This expansion can be achieved within the next 3-5 years, enhancing Ulta Beauty's competitive position.
• Enhancement of Online Presence: Ulta Beauty can further enhance its online presence by improving its website and mobile applications. By offering a seamless online shopping experience, the company can attract and retain online customers. The e-commerce market is growing rapidly, providing a significant opportunity for Ulta Beauty to increase its online sales. This enhancement can be implemented within the next 1-2 years, driving revenue growth.
• Expansion of Private Label Products: Ulta Beauty has the opportunity to expand its private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection. By offering high-quality private label products at competitive prices, the company can increase its profit margins and build brand loyalty. The private label market is growing as consumers seek value and quality. This expansion can be achieved within the next 2-3 years, enhancing Ulta Beauty's profitability.
• Enhancement of Salon Services: Ulta Beauty can enhance its salon services by offering a wider range of services and improving the customer experience. By providing high-quality salon services, the company can attract and retain customers. The salon services market is growing as consumers seek professional beauty treatments. This enhancement can be implemented within the next 1-2 years, driving revenue growth and customer loyalty.
• Partnerships and Collaborations: Ulta Beauty can pursue partnerships and collaborations with other brands and influencers to expand its reach and attract new customers. By collaborating with popular brands and influencers, the company can increase its brand awareness and drive sales. The beauty market is influenced by trends and collaborations. These partnerships can be established within the next 1-2 years, enhancing Ulta Beauty's market position.

What Are ULTA's Competitive Advantages?

• Large store network providing convenient access to customers.
• Wide range of products and services catering to diverse needs.
• Strong brand recognition and customer loyalty.
• Integrated online and offline presence.

What Does ULTA Do?

Ulta Beauty, Inc., founded in 1990 and headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois, has grown to become the largest beauty retailer in the United States. Originally known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., the company rebranded to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in 2017 to better reflect its comprehensive offerings. Ulta Beauty operates over 1,300 retail stores across 50 states, providing a one-stop destination for beauty enthusiasts. The company's stores offer a diverse range of products, including cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools. Ulta Beauty also provides professional hair products and salon services, such as hair, skin, makeup, brow, and nail services. In addition to national brands, Ulta Beauty offers its private label products, including the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded gifts. The company distributes its products through its website, ulta.com, and mobile applications, enhancing accessibility and convenience for customers. Ulta Beauty's competitive positioning is strengthened by its loyalty program, which attracts and retains a large customer base.

What Products and Services Does ULTA Offer?

• Retailer of beauty products in the United States.
• Offers cosmetics, fragrances, skincare, and haircare products.
• Provides bath and body products and salon styling tools.
• Offers professional hair products.
• Provides salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services.
• Offers nail services.
• Provides private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection.
• Distributes products through its website ulta.com and mobile applications.

How Does ULTA Make Money?

• Retail sales of beauty products through physical stores.
• Online sales of beauty products through ulta.com and mobile applications.
• Provision of salon services in stores.
• Sales of private label products.

What Industry Does ULTA Operate In?

Ulta Beauty operates within the specialty retail industry, which is characterized by evolving consumer preferences and increasing competition from online retailers. The beauty market is driven by trends in cosmetics, skincare, and personal care products. Ulta Beauty's competitive advantage lies in its ability to offer a wide range of products and services, catering to diverse customer needs. The company's integrated online and offline presence positions it well to capture market share in a dynamic environment. The industry is also influenced by factors such as economic conditions and changing demographics.

Who Are ULTA's Key Customers?

• Beauty enthusiasts seeking a wide range of products.
• Customers seeking salon services.
• Customers seeking value and quality in private label products.
• Online shoppers seeking convenience.

Over the past six months, Ulta Beauty, Inc. insiders filed 25 SEC Form 4 transactions — 2 sales and 23 purchases. On net that is roughly 157K shares acquired (about $69.2M) — insiders putting money in tends to read as conviction.

Wall Street analysts project Ulta Beauty, Inc. revenue of about $13.28B for fiscal 2027, with EPS near $28.99. The estimate reflects 20 contributing analysts.

Ulta Beauty, Inc. has beaten Wall Street's EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reported quarters — a consistent record of delivering on expectations. Reported results have landed about 11.1% above estimates on average.

Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — a middling fundamental profile. Its Altman Z-Score of 6.31 places it in the safe zone, indicating low near-term bankruptcy risk.

Return on equity for Ulta Beauty, Inc. stands at 45.4%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 17.4%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. ULTA trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 20.01, below the Consumer Cyclical sector average of ~32.70x. Its free cash flow yield is 4.4%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 1.35 indicates the company holds enough short-term assets to cover its near-term obligations. Its earnings yield is 5.0%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Valuation Context

Valued at $23.0B, ULTA is classified as a large-cap stock. Analyst price targets span from $550.00 to $731.00, with a consensus of $637.60. At the current price of $535.63, that implies approximately 19% upside potential. Relative to its peer group, ULTA's quantitative score of 85/100 is above the peer average of 71/100.

ULTA Revenue & Earnings Trend

In Q2 FY2026, ULTA generated $3.04B in top-line revenue, marking a sequential decrease of 4.1%. The company recorded net income of $282.0M, with diluted EPS of $6.48. Revenue has contracted over three consecutive quarters, which investors in this large-cap Consumer Cyclical stock should monitor closely. Across the four most recent quarters, ULTA averaged $6.82 in diluted EPS.

Company Profile

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates in the Specialty Retail industry within the Consumer Cyclical sector. It is headquartered in Bolingbrook, US. The company is led by CEO Kecia L. Steelman. ULTA has traded publicly since 2007.

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

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