Uber Technologies, Inc.
UBER - NYSE - $75.12 ▲ +%0.68
-
Earnings
Wed 6 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-06 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.
Uber opens the
books on Wednesday evening.
12 analysts' median target is $107[FMP target], stock is $75, +41.8% upside potential. After Q4 +-82.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +1.7%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
BUY
Council 5/6
-
Moonshot 64
A- = MoonshotScore 64[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $13.3B[FMP est], EPS $0.71[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$0.71
EPS Estimate
Last year $0.14 - -14% YoY YoY
-
Mobility Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
0
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 0 quarters
Q4 EPS +-82.2% beat[FMP] but the stock +1.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah promised $75.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah capex transcript].
$8.7 billion
Investor Focus
Adjusted Ebitda Growth
adjusted_ebitda_growth
Uber's adjusted EBITDA increased by 35% to $8.7 billion.
"We generated $8.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA, up 35% and a phenomenal $9.8 billion in free cash flow, up 42%."
- Dara Khosrowshahi - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
$8.7 billion
Investor Focus
Free Cash Flow Growth
free_cash_flow_growth
Uber's free cash flow increased by 42% to $9.8 billion.
"We generated $8.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA, up 35% and a phenomenal $9.8 billion in free cash flow, up 42%."
- Dara Khosrowshahi - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Gross Bookings Growth
gross_bookings_growth
Uber achieved over 20% growth in annual gross bookings in 2025.
"Looking at 2025 in full, we had our fifth consecutive year of annual gross bookings over 20%."
- Dara Khosrowshahi - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Non Top 20 Markets Profit
non_top_20_markets_profit
Nearly 75% of Uber's U.S. profits come from markets outside the top 20, and those markets are growing faster.
"One additional thing I'd add there is, while you asked about the top market, it's important to remember that 70% of the U.S. is outside of the stock markets and nearly 75% of our U.S. profits come from those markets. And that -- those numbers have been growing because those markets are growing faster than the top 20 cities."
- Balaji Krishnamurthy - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
64 / 100
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0
Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+24.6%)
Gross Margin4.0
Q4: average margin (39.6%)
Operating Leverage1.0
op margin average (12.3%)
Cash Runway10.0
FCF very strong ($2.8B, 37.4x CapEx)
R&D Intensity5.0
average R&D (6.5%)
Price Momentum7.0
RSI 52.3 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0
strong buy consensus (84%)
Council Score
5 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +41.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 52
Klarman value - target upside +41.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +41.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued
Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
52.3
RSI 52.3 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+1.50
price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$74
stock 1.5% above - short-term support
200d MA
$85
stock 11.8% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-20%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$107
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$75
Pre-earnings position
Support
$72
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$72-$107 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
Uber's last 8 quarters: 0 consecutive beats.
BEAT
Q1 FY25
$0.83 vs $0.51 est - -1.6%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$0.63 vs $0.63 est - +3.9%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$3.11 vs $0.69 est - -2.0%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$0.14 vs $0.79 est - +1.7%
Q4 (February 4, 2026): EPS $0.14 vs $0.79 est[FMP], +-82.2% beat. D+1 movement: +1.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $0.69 (no guidance)
Q4: EPS $0.14 vs $0.79 beat[FMP], stock +1.7% D+1[FMP].
"-"
- Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q4 CapEx $75.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 12.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"-"
- Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.71 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.71[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $107[FMP target]; high target $125[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.71 + CapEx < $75.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.71[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $75[FMP].0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $75 and median $107[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.69 or CapEx >= $75.0M
Threshold: EPS < $0.69[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $75 below SMA200 $85[FMP], if rejection continues, $72[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 12 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$107
12-month median target price (+41.8% upside potential)
Risk Management
$72
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$74 - 50-day MA (above, +1.5%)
$85 - 200-day MA (below, -11.8%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - UBER Q4 FY26
A-
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.71[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $75.0M"[Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage
TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades
Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
May 6, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 7, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 20, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 6, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the UBER earnings preview cover?
This UBER (UBER) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in UBER earnings?
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.