Applied Materials, Inc.
AMAT - NASDAQ - $389.08 ▼ -%1.37
-
Earnings Thu 14 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-14 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Applied opens the
books on Thursday evening.

16 analysts' median target is $433[FMP target], stock is $389, +11.2% upside potential. After Q1 +7.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +8.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 57

B+ = MoonshotScore 57[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $7.7B[FMP est], EPS $2.66[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.66 EPS Estimate Last year $2.17 - +11% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +7.7% beat[FMP] but the stock +8.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Brice Hill promised $646.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Brice Hill capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$1 billion Investor Focus

Cfe Ebeam Revenue Growth

cfe_ebeam_revenue_growth

Applied Materials expects cold field emission eBeam technology revenues to double this calendar year to more than $1 billion.

"One example of this is our unique cold field emission eBeam technology where we expect revenues to double this calendar year to more than $1 billion and support process diagnostics and control, being one of our fastest-growing businesses in 2026."

- Gary Dickerson, President and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
$7.65 billion Expectation / Guide

Q2 Revenue Guidance

q2_revenue_guidance

Applied Materials expects company revenue of $7.65 billion, plus or minus $500 million, which should be up around 9% sequentially.

"We expect company revenue of $7.65 billion, plus or minus $500 million, which should be up around 9% sequentially."

- Brice Hill, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
$1.56 billion Investor Focus

Ags Record Revenue

ags_record_revenue

Applied Global Services (AGS) delivered record revenue of $1.56 billion, which exceeded expectations and grew 15% year-over-year.

"Applied Global Services delivered record revenue of $1.56 billion, which exceeded our expectations and grew 15% year-over-year."

- Brice Hill, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
%20 Investor Focus

Semi Equipment Growth

semi_equipment_growth

Applied Materials expects to grow its semiconductor equipment business more than 20% this calendar year in 2026.

"For Applied, we expect to grow our semiconductor equipment business more than 20% this calendar year."

- Gary Dickerson, President and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
2026 Investor Focus

Nand Equipment Demand

nand_equipment_demand

Applied Materials is forecasting modest growth in equipment demand in NAND in 2026 and expects NAND to remain less than 10% of wafer fab equipment spending.

"In NAND, we are forecasting modest growth in equipment demand in 2026 and we expect NAND to remain less than 10% of wafer fab equipment spending."

- Gary Dickerson, President and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 57 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and R&D Intensity strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-1.2%, contraction)
Gross Margin5.0Q1: average margin (49.0%)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin healthy (29.9%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF strong ($1.0B FCF, covers CapEx)
R&D Intensity7.0balanced R&D investment (12.9%)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 52.8 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (76%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +11.2%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 53
Klarman value - target upside +11.2%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +11.2%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
52.8 RSI 52.8 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+5.30 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$369 stock 5.3% above - short-term support
200d MA
$269 stock 44.5% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-21% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$433
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$389
Pre-earnings position
Support
$229
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$229-$433 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Applied beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.39 vs $2.31 est - -5.3%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.48 vs $2.36 est - -14.1%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.17 vs $2.11 est - +0.8%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.38 vs $2.21 est - +8.1%

Q1 (February 12, 2026): EPS $2.38 vs $2.21 est[FMP], +7.7% beat. D+1 movement: +8.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.58 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $2.38 vs $2.21 beat[FMP], stock +8.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $646.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 29.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.66 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.66[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $433[FMP target]; high target $500[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.66 + CapEx < $646.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.66[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $646.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $389[FMP] and median $433[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.58 or CapEx >= $646.0M
Threshold: EPS < $2.58[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $389 below SMA200 $269[FMP], if rejection continues, $229[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 16 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$433
12-month median target price (+11.2% upside potential)
29
BUY
9
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$229
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$369 - 50-day MA (above, +5.3%)
$269 - 200-day MA (above, +44.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - AMAT Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.66[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $646.0M"[Brice Hill]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 14, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 15, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 28, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 14, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the AMAT earnings preview cover?

This AMAT (AMAT) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in AMAT earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.