29 analysts' median target is $464[FMP target], stock is $518, -10.4% upside potential. After Q1 +6.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +18.6%.
B = MoonshotScore 63[multi-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $11.2B[FMP est], EPS $1.60[FMP est]. 6 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +6.2% beat[FMP] but the stock +18.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Jean Hu promised $389.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Jean Hu capex transcript].
Watchlist
Instinct Gpu Demand 2027 Revenue
instinct_gpu_demand_2027_revenue
With strong demand for MI450 series GPUs and increasing customer forecasts, AMD has high confidence in delivering tens of billions of dollars in annual Data Center AI revenue by 2027.
"As we approach production, demand for MI450 series GPUs continues to strengthen, with lead customer forecasts now exceeding our initial plans and a growing number of new customers engaging on large-scale deployments, including additional multi-gigawatt opportunities. With this expanded visibility, we have strong and increasing confidence in our ability to deliver tens of billions of dollars in annual Data Center AI revenue in 2027 and to exceed our long-term growth target of greater than 80% in the coming years."
- Lisa Su, Chair and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Q2 2026 Revenue Guidance
q2_2026_revenue_guidance
AMD expects Q2 2026 revenue to be approximately $11.2 billion, representing a 46% year-over-year increase, driven by strong Data Center segment growth.
"Now turning to our second quarter 2026 outlook. We expect revenue to be approximately $11.2 billion, plus or minus $300 million. At the middle of our guidance, revenue is expected to be up 46% year-over-year driven by a very strong growth in our Data Center segment, growth in our Client and Gaming segment and a double-digit growth in our Embedded segment."
- Jean Hu, Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Data Center Q1 Growth
data_center_q1_growth
AMD's Data Center revenue increased 57% year-over-year to a record $5.8 billion in the first quarter, driven by strong demand for EPYC CPUs and Instinct GPUs.
"Data Center revenue increased 57% year-over-year to a record $5.8 billion, led by strong demand for our EPYC CPUs and Instinct GPUs."
- Lisa Su, Chair and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Gaming H2 Outlook
gaming_h2_outlook
Due to higher memory and component costs, AMD anticipates second-half PC shipments and gaming revenue to be impacted, with gaming revenue projected to decline more than 20% compared to the first half.
"However, we are planning for second half PC shipments to be lower due to higher memory and component costs. Against this backdrop, we still expect our client revenue to grow year-over-year and outperform the market, driven by the strength of our Ryzen portfolio and expanding commercial adoption. ... We now expect second half gaming revenue to decline more than 20% compared to the first half."
- Jean Hu, Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Server Cpu Tam Revision
server_cpu_tam_revision
Due to increased CPU compute requirements from Agentic AI, AMD now expects the server CPU TAM to grow at greater than 35% annually, exceeding $120 billion by 2030, up from the previous 18% forecast.
"At our Financial Analyst Day in November, we outlined the server CPU market growing at approximately 18% annually over the next 3 to 5 years. Based on the demand signals we are seeing today and the structural increase in CPU compute requirements driven by Agentic AI, we now expect the server CPU TAM to grow at greater than 35% annually, reaching over $120 billion by 2030."
- Lisa Su, Chair and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Meta Partnership
meta_partnership
AMD has expanded its strategic partnership with Meta to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs, including a custom MI450-based accelerator designed to support Meta's next-generation AI workloads.
"A key example is our expanded strategic partnership with Meta to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs spanning several product generations. Our agreement includes a custom GPU accelerator based on our MI450 architecture, co-designed to support Meta's next-generation AI workloads."
- Lisa Su, Chair and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Ken Griffin), 2 bearish (Klarman, Munger), 3 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, but price is high.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 5, 2026): EPS $1.37 vs $1.29 est[FMP], +6.2% beat. D+1 movement: +18.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.37 vs $1.29 beat[FMP], stock +18.6% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $389.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 14.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.60[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $389.0M"[Jean Hu]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.