12 analysts' median target is $300[FMP target], stock is $361, -16.8% upside potential. After Q4 +15.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -17.3%.
B = MoonshotScore 59[9-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $9.9B[FMP est], EPS $1.30[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q4 EPS +15.9% beat[FMP] but the stock -17.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Jean Hu promised $222.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Jean Hu capex transcript].
Watchlist
Data Center Growth
data_center_growth
AMD aims to grow data center segment revenue by more than 60% annually over the next three to five years, based on the strength of its EPYC and Instinct roadmaps.
"Based on the strength of our EPYC and Instinct roadmaps, we are well-positioned to grow data center segment revenue by more than 60% annually, over the next three to five years and scale our AI business to tens of billions in annual revenue in 2027."
- Lisa Su, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Q1 2026 Guidance
q1_2026_guidance
AMD expects revenue to be approximately $9.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, including approximately $100 million of MI308 sales to China.
"We expect revenue to be approximately $9.8 billion plus or minus $300 million including approximately $100 million of MI308 sales to China."
- Jean Hu, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Fy2025 Performance
fy2025_performance
AMD delivered record revenue of $34.6 billion in 2025, up 34%, and record earnings per share of $4.17.
"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. executed very well in 2025. Delivering record revenue of $34.6 billion, up 34% year over year, driven by 32% growth in our data center segment and 51% growth in our client and gaming segment. Gross margin was 52%. And we delivered record earnings per share of $4.17, up 26% year over year, continuing to invest aggressively in AI and the data center to support our long-term growth."
- Jean Hu, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Embedded Design Wins
embedded_design_wins
AMD has secured over $50 billion in embedded design wins since acquiring Xilinx, with $17 billion in new design wins in 2025, up nearly 20% year over year.
"We closed $17 billion in design wins in 2025, up nearly 20% year over year as we now won more than $50 billion of embedded designs since acquiring Xilinx."
- Lisa Su, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Instinct Adoption
instinct_adoption
Eight of the top 10 AI companies use Instinct GPUs to power production workloads.
"Today, eight of the top 10 AI companies use Instinct to power production workloads across a growing range of use cases."
- Lisa Su, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Semi Custom Decline
semi_custom_decline
AMD expects semi-custom SoC annual revenue to decline by a significant double-digit percentage in 2026 as it enters the seventh year of the console cycle.
"For 2026, we expect semi-custom SoC annual revenue to decline by a significant double-digit percentage as we enter the seventh year of what has been a very strong console cycle."
- Lisa Su, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Ken Griffin), 3 bearish (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger), 2 neutral (Ray Dalio, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, but price is high.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q4 (February 3, 2026): EPS $1.53 vs $1.32 est[FMP], +15.9% beat. D+1 movement: -17.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q4: EPS $1.53 vs $1.32 beat[FMP], stock -17.3% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.
Q4 CapEx $222.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 17.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.30[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $222.0M"[Jean Hu]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.