Amazon.com, Inc.
AMZN - NASDAQ - $268.42 ▲ +%1.27
-
Earnings Thu 30 Jul

Amazon.com opens the
books on Thursday evening.

40 analysts' median target is $315[FMP target], stock is $268, +17.4% upside potential. After Q1 +70.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.8%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 44

B+ = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $194.6B[FMP est], EPS $1.82[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.82 EPS Estimate Last year $1.95 - +8% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +70.6% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Brian Olsavsky promised $44.2B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Brian Olsavsky capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

28% Investor Focus

Aws Growth Acceleration

aws_growth_acceleration

AWS growth accelerated to 28%, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters.

"Starting with AWS, growth continued to accelerate, up 28% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters, up $2 billion quarter-over-quarter, the largest Q4 to Q1 AWS revenue increase ever."

- Andrew Jassy, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$17.2 billion Investor Focus

Amazon Ads Growth

amazon_ads_growth

Amazon Ads generating $17.2 billion of revenue in the quarter and up 22% year-over-year.

"We continue working to be the best place for brands of all sizes to grow their businesses, and we're pleased with the continued strong growth across our full funnel offerings, generating $17.2 billion of revenue in the quarter and up 22% year-over-year."

- Andrew Jassy, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
3 Investor Focus

Aws Ai Revenue Run Rate

aws_ai_revenue_run_rate

In the first 3 years of this AI wave, AWS' AI revenue run rate is over $15 billion.

"In the first 3 years of this AI wave, AWS' AI revenue run rate is over $15 billion, nearly 260x larger."

- Andrew Jassy, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
15% Investor Focus

Stores Unit Growth

stores_unit_growth

Units grew 15% year-over-year, the highest we've seen since the tail end of COVID lockdowns.

"Units grew 15% year-over-year, the highest we've seen since the tail end of COVID lockdowns."

- Andrew Jassy, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$150 billion Investor Focus

Aws Annual Revenue Run Rate

aws_annual_revenue_run_rate

AWS is now a $150 billion annualized revenue run rate business.

"AWS is now a $150 billion annualized revenue run rate business."

- Andrew Jassy, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$225 billion Investor Focus

Trainium Commitments

trainium_commitments

And we now have over $225 billion in revenue commitments for Trainium.

"And we now have over $225 billion in revenue commitments for Trainium."

- Andrew Jassy, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 44 / 100

9-pillar methodology. News Sentiment strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth4.0Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+8.2%)
Gross Margin5.0Q1: high margin (51.8%)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (13.1%)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-18.2B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity5.0high R&D intensity (15.5%, aggressive)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 78.1 overbought, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (93%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 1 bearish (Jim Simons), 2 neutral (Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +17.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 78
Klarman value - target upside +17.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +17.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
78.1 RSI 78.1 overbought, 50d above
MACD
+19.40 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$225 stock 19.4% above - short-term support
200d MA
$227 stock 18.1% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-3% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$315
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$268
Pre-earnings position
Support
$193
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$193-$315 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Amazon.com,'s last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.68 vs $1.31 est - -8.3%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.95 vs $1.57 est - +9.6%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.95 vs $1.97 est - -5.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.78 vs $1.63 est - +0.8%

Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $2.78 vs $1.63 est[FMP], +70.6% beat. D+1 movement: +0.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.77 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $2.78 vs $1.63 beat[FMP], stock +0.8% D+1[FMP]. Brian Olsavsky Q1 transcript: "Starting with AWS, growth continued to accelerate, up 28% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters, up $2 billion quarter-over-quarter, the largest Q4 to Q1 AWS revenue increase ever."[Brian Olsavsky].

"Starting with AWS, growth continued to accelerate, up 28% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters, up $2 billion quarter-over-quarter, the largest Q4 to Q1 AWS revenue increase ever."

- Brian Olsavsky, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $44.2B[FMP cashflow]. Brian Olsavsky Q1 transcript: "Our cash CapEx was $43.2 billion in Q1. This primarily relates to AWS and generative AI as we invest to support strong customer demand."[Brian Olsavsky transcript]. Q1 op margin 13.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

"Our cash CapEx was $43.2 billion in Q1. This primarily relates to AWS and generative AI as we invest to support strong customer demand."

- Brian Olsavsky, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.82 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.82[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $315[FMP target]; high target $333[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.82 + CapEx < $44.2B
Threshold: EPS approx $1.82[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $44.2B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $268[FMP] and median $315[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.77 or CapEx >= $44.2B
Threshold: EPS < $1.77[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $268 below SMA200 $227[FMP], if rejection continues, $193[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 40 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$315
12-month median target price (+17.4% upside potential)
62
BUY
5
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$193
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$225 - 50-day MA (above, +19.4%)
$227 - 200-day MA (above, +18.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - AMZN Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.82[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $44.2B"[Brian Olsavsky]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days AMZN dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 30, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 31, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 30, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the AMZN earnings preview cover?

This AMZN (AMZN) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in AMZN earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.