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Amazon.com, Inc.
AMZN - NASDAQ - $271.58 ▲ +%15.32
-
Earnings Thu 29 Oct

Amazon.com opens the
books on Thursday evening.

30 analysts' median target is $320[FMP target], stock is $272, +17.8% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +215.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +15.3%.

summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 53

B+ = MoonshotScore 53[multi-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Quick Answer

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Q1 consensus: revenue $202.0B[FMP est], EPS $1.96[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$1.96 EPS Estimate Last year $2.78 - +1% YoY YoY
2 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 2 quarters

Q2 EPS +215.9% beat[FMP] but the stock +15.3% D+1[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

36.7% Investor Focus

Aws Growth Acceleration

aws_growth_acceleration

AWS revenue growth accelerated for the fifth straight quarter to 36.7% year-over-year, reaching a $169 billion annualized run rate and a record backlog of $496 billion.

"Revenue growth of 36.7% year-over-year, accelerating for the fifth straight quarter, our fastest growth in 18 quarters back when AWS was less than half its current revenue size. We added over $4.6 billion in revenue quarter-over-quarter, about 80% more than our largest increase ever. Our backlog stands at $496 billion, growing triple digits year-over-year. AWS is now a $169 billion annualized revenue run rate business..."

- Andy Jassy, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
$200 billion Risk Indicator

Capex Increase Ai Aws

capex_increase_ai_aws

Amazon increased its 2026 cash CapEx forecast from $200 billion to $220 billion, with the majority supporting AI and AWS, yet anticipates this investment will still not fully meet demand in 2026 and 2027.

"Earlier this year, we said we plan to invest approximately $200 billion in cash CapEx in 2026, the majority of which to support AI and AWS... We now believe we will spend approximately $220 billion in cash CapEx in 2026. The higher cost of memory pushing this number up from our prior estimate of about $200 billion. Even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026, and I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027, too."

- Andy Jassy, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
$19.8 billion Investor Focus

Amazon Ads Growth

amazon_ads_growth

Amazon Ads demonstrated strong growth, generating $19.8 billion in revenue, up 26% year-over-year, driven by Sponsored Products and AI-powered tools like Ads Agent.

"Moving on to Amazon Ads, we saw strong growth across our offerings, generating $19.8 billion of revenue, up 26% year-over-year. Sponsored Products continues to be our largest offering and a key driver of growth... Advertisers using Ads Agent targeting see 8% lower cost per impression and 6% lower cost per acquisition, and we've expanded it to 11 new countries this year."

- Andy Jassy, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
350 million Investor Focus

Ai Product Adoption

ai_product_adoption

Amazon Q is gaining significant momentum with major enterprise customers like 3M and BMW, while Alexa for Shopping's active users nearly doubled to over 350 million in the last 12 months.

"Q has momentum, with 3M, Allianz, AstraZeneca, Autodesk, BMW, Exxon, FINRA, Hyundai, Intuit, Mondelēz International, Moody's, the NBA, the NFL, Sun Life, and Southwest Airlines all using it... Over 350 million customers have used it in the last 12 months, and engagement accelerated in Q2, with active users nearly doubling and interactions up over 5x year-over-year."

- Andy Jassy, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
$25 billion Investor Focus

Custom Chips Strategy

custom_chips_strategy

Amazon's custom chips business, featuring AI-focused Trainium and CPU-focused Graviton, boasts an annual revenue run rate over $25 billion, with significant multi-year commitments from major customers like Anthropic and OpenAI, uniquely positioning it in the AI inflection.

"I mentioned earlier that our chips revenue run rate is now over $25 billion. We are unusually well-positioned for this AI inflection, given our leading price-performance chips in both AI with Trainium and CPU with Graviton. In addition to the two leading AI labs in the world, Anthropic and OpenAI, making multi-year, multi-gigawatt commitments to Trainium, an increasing number of AI startups are also adopting Trainium... Graviton is used by 98% of our top 1,000 EC2 customers. The revenue commitments have increased nearly three times quarter-over-quarter, and Graviton5 is growing nearly 2x faster as Graviton4 did."

- Andy Jassy, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
40 Investor Focus

Stores Delivery Speed Innovation

stores_delivery_speed_innovation

Amazon achieved record delivery speeds in the first half of the year, offering millions of items for same-day delivery with Prime and providing 30-minute or less delivery through Amazon Now in over 250 cities across 9 countries.

"We continue speeding up overall delivery and once again achieved record delivery speeds for customers in the first half of the year. We offer millions of items for same-day delivery with Prime, up to 40 times more selection than a typical big box retail store, and our same-day network continues to expand. Globally, we delivered over 40% more items same day or overnight in the first 6 months of the year than the same period last year. We also continued to expand our ultra-fast service, Amazon Now, which offers delivery in 30 minutes or less on thousands of everyday essentials. We added 80 new cities and towns across the U.S. and several major cities in Egypt in Q2, and Amazon Now is available in 9 countries and over 250 cities and towns globally."

- Andy Jassy, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +17.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 68
Klarman value - target upside +17.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +17.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
67.9 RSI 67.9 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+10.10 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$247 stock 10.1% above - short-term support
200d MA
$235 stock 15.6% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+143% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$320
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$272
Pre-earnings position
Support
$200
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$200-$320 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Amazon.com,'s last 8 quarters: 2 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.95 vs $1.57 est - +9.6%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.95 vs $1.97 est - -5.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.78 vs $1.63 est - +0.8%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$5.75 vs $1.82 est - +15.3%

Q2 (July 30, 2026): EPS $5.75 vs $1.82 est[FMP], +215.9% beat. D+1 movement: +15.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.90 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $5.75 vs $1.82 beat[FMP], stock +15.3% D+1[FMP]. Brian Olsavsky Q2 transcript: "Revenue growth of 36.7% year-over-year, accelerating for the fifth straight quarter, our fastest growth in 18 quarters back when AWS was less than half its current revenue size."[Brian Olsavsky].

"Revenue growth of 36.7% year-over-year, accelerating for the fifth straight quarter, our fastest growth in 18 quarters back when AWS was less than half its current revenue size."

- Brian Olsavsky, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $54.2B[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 13.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $1.96 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.96[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $320[FMP target]; high target $390[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.96 + CapEx < $54.2B
Threshold: EPS approx $1.96[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $54.2B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $272[FMP] and median $320[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.90 or CapEx >= $54.2B
Threshold: EPS < $1.90[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $272 below SMA200 $235[FMP], if rejection continues, $200[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 30 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$320
12-month median target price (+17.8% gap to the analyst consensus median)
61
BUY
3
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$200
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$247 - 50-day MA (above, +10.1%)
$235 - 200-day MA (above, +15.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - AMZN Q1 FY27
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.96[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $54.2B". Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Oct 29, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Oct 30, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Dec 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Jan 29, 2027EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the AMZN earnings preview cover?

This Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in AMZN earnings?

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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