Arista Networks, Inc.
ANET - NYSE - $172.70 ▼ -%0.01
-
Earnings Tue 5 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-05 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Arista opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

10 analysts' median target is $185[FMP target], stock is $173, +6.8% upside potential. After Q4 +8.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +4.8%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 76

B = MoonshotScore 76[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.6B[FMP est], EPS $0.81[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.81 EPS Estimate Last year $0.82 - +25% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q4 EPS +8.2% beat[FMP] but the stock +4.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Chantelle Breithaupt promised $37.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Chantelle Breithaupt capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

2025 Expectation / Guide

Ai Networking Revenue Guidance

ai_networking_revenue_guidance

Arista is doubling its AI networking revenue from 2025 to 2026 to $3,250,000,000.

"With our increased visibility, we are now doubling from 2025 to 2026 to $3,250,000,000 in AI networking revenue."

- Jayshree Ullal, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
%25 Investor Focus

Fy26 Revenue Growth

fy26_revenue_growth

Arista is raising its fiscal year 2026 revenue growth outlook to 25%, targeting approximately $11.25 billion in revenue.

"despite all the news on the mounting supply chain allocation, rising cost of memory, and silicon fabrication, we increased our 2026 guidance to 25% annual growth accelerating now to $11,250,000,000."

- Jayshree Ullal, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
$1,250,000,000 Investor Focus

Campus Branch Revenue Goal

campus_branch_revenue_goal

Arista is committed to its aggressive goal of $1,250,000,000 for 2026 for the cognitive campus and branch.

"Looking ahead, we are committed to our aggressive goal of $1,250,000,000 for 2026 for the cognitive campus and branch."

- Jayshree Ullal, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
$2,600,000,000 Expectation / Guide

Q1 2026 Revenue Guidance

q1_2026_revenue_guidance

Arista's guidance for the first quarter is as follows. Revenues of approximately $2,600,000,000

"With all of this as a backdrop, our guidance for the first quarter is as follows. Revenues of approximately $2,600,000,000"

- Chantelle Breithaupt, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
2025 Investor Focus

Cloud Ai Titans Contribution

cloud_ai_titans_contribution

Shifting to annual customer sector revenue for 2025, cloud and AI titans contributed significantly at 48%.

"Shifting to annual customer sector revenue for 2025, cloud and AI titans contributed significantly at 48%."

- Jayshree Ullal, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
10% Investor Focus

Customer Concentration

customer_concentration

We had two greater than 10% customer concentration in 2025. Customer A and B drove 16-20% of our overall business.

"We had two greater than 10% customer concentration in 2025. Customer A and B drove 16-20% of our overall business."

- Jayshree Ullal, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 76 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+24.1%)
Gross Margin6.0Q4: high margin (62.9%)
Operating Leverage4.0op margin very strong (41.5%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.2B, 33.1x CapEx)
R&D Intensity7.0balanced R&D investment (13.7%)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 65.2 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (90%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +6.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 65
Klarman value - target upside +6.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +6.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
65.2 RSI 65.2 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+20.90 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$143 stock 20.9% above - short-term support
200d MA
$138 stock 25.5% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+5% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$185
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$173
Pre-earnings position
Support
$117
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$117-$185 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Arista beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q1 FY25
$0.65 vs $0.59 est - -4.8%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$0.73 vs $0.65 est - +17.5%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.75 vs $0.72 est - -8.6%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$0.82 vs $0.76 est - +4.8%

Q4 (February 12, 2026): EPS $0.82 vs $0.76 est[FMP], +8.2% beat. D+1 movement: +4.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.79 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $0.82 vs $0.76 beat[FMP], stock +4.8% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $37.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 41.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.81 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.81[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $185[FMP target]; high target $200[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.81 + CapEx < $37.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.81[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $37.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $173[FMP] and median $185[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.79 or CapEx >= $37.0M
Threshold: EPS < $0.79[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $173 below SMA200 $138[FMP], if rejection continues, $117[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 10 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$185
12-month median target price (+6.8% upside potential)
27
BUY
3
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$117
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$143 - 50-day MA (above, +20.9%)
$138 - 200-day MA (above, +25.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ANET Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.81[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $37.0M"[Chantelle Breithaupt]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 5, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 6, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 19, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 5, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the ANET earnings preview cover?

This ANET (ANET) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in ANET earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.