Apollo Global Management, Inc.
APO - NYSE - $130.26 ▲ +%0.83
-
Earnings Wed 6 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-06 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Apollo opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

2 analysts' median target is $154[FMP target], stock is $130, +17.8% upside potential. After Q4 +21.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 60

B = MoonshotScore 60[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $5.2B[FMP est], EPS $1.90[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.90 EPS Estimate Last year $2.47 - +4% YoY YoY
3 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 3 quarters

Q4 EPS +21.1% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Martin Kelly promised $0 CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Martin Kelly capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

20% Expectation / Guide

FRE Growth Outlook 2026

FRE_growth_outlook_2026

Apollo anticipates FRE growth of over 20% in 2026.

"We previously communicated, we expect FRE to grow by 20% plus, with 75% of the revenue contribution coming from well-established core businesses such as asset-backed finance, direct lending, multi-credit, and hybrid, as well as the annualization of growth already in the ground."

- Martin Kelly, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 9, 2026
10% Expectation / Guide

SRE Growth Outlook 2026

SRE_growth_outlook_2026

Apollo anticipates 10% SRE growth in 2026.

"For SRE, we anticipate 10% growth and assuming an 11% alts return, or approximately $3.85 billion in 2026."

- Martin Kelly, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 9, 2026
$305 Investor Focus

Origination Volume Growth

origination_volume_growth

Apollo's asset origination exceeded $305 billion, up nearly 40% from the prior year.

"As Marc noted, we originated over $305 billion of assets, up nearly 40% from the prior year."

- James Zelter, President - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 9, 2026
8% Investor Focus

ADS Performance

ADS_performance

Apollo's largest private markets direct lending vehicle, ADS, generated approximately 8% return for the quarter and for the year.

"To give you a sense of how this principal mindset plays out, take our largest private markets direct lending vehicle, ADS, now more than $25 billion. For the quarter and for the year, approximately 8% return."

- Marc Rowan, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 9, 2026
$24 Investor Focus

Athene Defensive Positioning

Athene_defensive_positioning

Athene has positioned defensively rather than reaching for spread, building a $24 billion position of cash, treasuries, and agencies.

"At Athene, while others have reached for spread, we have been positioned defensively. We've built a $24 billion position of cash, treasuries, and agencies."

- Marc Rowan, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 9, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 60 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. Cash Runway weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+46.3%)
Gross Margin7.0Q4: very high margin (69.7%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage5.0op margin very strong (52.6%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway3.0FCF very strong ($2.8B, 2819000000.0x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 66.7 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment7.0strong buy consensus (70%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +17.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 67
Klarman value - target upside +17.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +17.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
66.7 RSI 66.7 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+14.30 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$114 stock 14.3% above - short-term support
200d MA
$130 stock 0.1% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-75% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$154
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$130
Pre-earnings position
Support
$111
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$111-$154 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Apollo's last 8 quarters: 3 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q1 FY25
$1.82 vs $1.84 est - -1.0%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.92 vs $1.84 est - +0.2%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.14 vs $1.90 est - +2.5%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.47 vs $2.04 est - -1.1%

Q4 (February 9, 2026): EPS $2.47 vs $2.04 est[FMP], +21.1% beat. D+1 movement: -1.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.84 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $2.47 vs $2.04 beat[FMP], stock -1.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $0[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 52.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.90 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.90[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $154[FMP target]; high target $186[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.90 + CapEx < $0
Threshold: EPS approx $1.90[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $0[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $130[FMP] and median $154[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.84 or CapEx >= $0
Threshold: EPS < $1.84[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $130[FMP] below SMA200 $130, if rejection continues, $111[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 2 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$154
12-month median target price (+17.8% upside potential)
14
BUY
6
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$111
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$114 - 50-day MA (above, +14.3%)
$130 - 200-day MA (below, -0.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - APO Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.90[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $0"[Martin Kelly]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days APO dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 6, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 7, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 20, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 6, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the APO earnings preview cover?

This APO (APO) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in APO earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.