AppLovin Corporation
APP - NASDAQ - $460.00 ▲ +%3.06
-
Earnings Wed 6 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-06 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

AppLovin opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

15 analysts' median target is $675[FMP target], stock is $460, +46.7% upside potential. After Q4 +9.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -19.7%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 5/6 - Moonshot 77

B = MoonshotScore 77[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $1.8B[FMP est], EPS $3.40[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$3.40 EPS Estimate Last year $3.24 - +104% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q4 EPS +9.8% beat[FMP] but the stock -19.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Matt Stumpf promised $28.3M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Matt Stumpf capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$1.745 billion Expectation / Guide

Q1 2026 Revenue Guidance

q1_2026_revenue_guidance

AppLovin expects revenue between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion for the first quarter of 2026, representing 5% to 7% sequential growth.

"We expect revenue between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion, representing 5% to 7% sequential growth."

- Matt Stumpf, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
84% Expectation / Guide

Q1 2026 EBITDA Margin Guidance

q1_2026_EBITDA_margin_guidance

AppLovin expects an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 84% for the first quarter of 2026.

"Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1.465 billion and $1.495 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 84%, maintaining best-in-class profitability as we continue to scale."

- Matt Stumpf, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
6.4 million Investor Focus

Share Repurchase Program

share_repurchase_program

For the full year, AppLovin repurchased and withheld approximately 6.4 million shares for a total of $2.58 billion.

"For the full year, we repurchased and withheld approximately 6.4 million shares for a total of $2.58 billion, funded entirely by free cash flow."

- Matt Stumpf, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
100 Investor Focus

Generative Ai Tools

generative_ai_tools

AppLovin is developing generative AI tools to automate the ad creation process for advertisers and is currently running a pilot program with over 100 customers.

"We already have in a pilot with over 100 customers, generative AI-based tools for one part of the ad unit."

- Adam Foroughi - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
30-day Investor Focus

Axon Marketing Investment

axon_marketing_investment

AppLovin plans to increase marketing investments for the AXON advertising platform but is not rushing to ensure the tools catch up to the opportunity.

"We're seeing 30-day LTV to CAC roughly. If we see that at scale, we're going to scale, but we're not in a rush because we want the tools to catch up to the opportunity."

- Adam Foroughi - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 77 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Operating Leverage strong.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth6.0Q4 vs Q1: healthy growth (+11.7%)
Gross Margin9.0Q4: very high margin (88.9%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage8.0op margin very strong (76.9%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.3B, 45.4x CapEx)
R&D Intensity5.0average R&D (5.0%)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 54.1 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (87%)
Council Score 5 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +46.7%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 54
Klarman value - target upside +46.7%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +46.7%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
54.1 RSI 54.1 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+4.70 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$439 stock 4.7% above - short-term support
200d MA
$526 stock 12.5% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-23% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$675
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$460
Pre-earnings position
Support
$447
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$447-$675 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

AppLovin beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q1 FY25
$1.67 vs $1.44 est - +11.9%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.26 vs $1.96 est - +12.0%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.45 vs $2.38 est - +0.7%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$3.24 vs $2.95 est - -19.7%

Q4 (February 11, 2026): EPS $3.24 vs $2.95 est[FMP], +9.8% beat. D+1 movement: -19.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.30 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $3.24 vs $2.95 beat[FMP], stock -19.7% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $28.3M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 76.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $3.40 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.40[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $675[FMP target]; high target $835[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.40 + CapEx < $28.3M
Threshold: EPS approx $3.40[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $28.3M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $460[FMP] and median $675[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.30 or CapEx >= $28.3M
Threshold: EPS < $3.30[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $460 below SMA200 $526[FMP], if rejection continues, $447[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 15 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$675
12-month median target price (+46.7% upside potential)
26
BUY
4
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$447
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$439 - 50-day MA (above, +4.7%)
$526 - 200-day MA (below, -12.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - APP Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.40[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $28.3M"[Matt Stumpf]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days APP dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 6, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 7, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 20, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 6, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the APP earnings preview cover?

This APP (APP) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in APP earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.