8 analysts' median target is $665[FMP target], stock is $527, +26.2% upside potential. After Q1 +3.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +6.4%.
B = MoonshotScore 70[multi-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $1.9B[FMP est], EPS $3.72[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +3.5% beat[FMP] but the stock +6.4% D+1[FMP D+1]. Matt Stumpf promised $0 CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Matt Stumpf capex transcript].
Watchlist
Q1 Performance Q2 Guidance
q1_performance_q2_guidance
AppLovin delivered a strong Q1, exceeding expectations with 59% revenue growth and an 85% adjusted EBITDA margin, and guides for 52-55% revenue growth and 84-85% EBITDA margin in Q2.
"Revenue in the first quarter was $1.84 billion, up 59% year-over-year and 11% sequentially, driven by continued technology advancements across our core gaming business and our expanding consumer vertical. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.56 billion, up 66% year-over-year, representing an 85% margin. Turning to our outlook for the second quarter of 2026. We expect revenue between $1.915 billion and $1.945 billion, representing 52% to 55% year-over-year growth or 4% to 6% sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1.615 billion and $1.645 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 84% to 85%."
- Matt Stumpf, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
New Customer Value Potential
new_customer_value_potential
AppLovin expects over $70,000 in annual value from each new customer, projecting a potential $7 billion in first-year ad spend if 100,000 new customers are acquired after the platform opens.
"Right now, we're projecting well over $70,000 a year from every new customer. So if you just want to size that, if we open up the platform and sign on 100,000 customers in the next year, first year revenue from them are ad spend -- advertising spend would be roughly $7 billion."
- Adam Foroughi, Co-Founder and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Axon Public Access June
axon_public_access_june
AppLovin will open its Axon platform to the public in June, allowing advertisers worldwide to sign up and run campaigns, which is expected to meaningfully change the company's trajectory.
"What I want to spend my time on today is the opportunity ahead because we are quickly moving through a lot of the goals we set for the business this year, and we are now well on our way to opening up our platform to the public in June. That is a major milestone. For 14 years, we have been a closed platform. Come June, advertisers across the world will be able to sign up for Axon and start running campaigns. That changes the trajectory of this company in a very meaningful way."
- Adam Foroughi, Co-Founder and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Consumer Vertical Acceleration
consumer_vertical_acceleration
AppLovin's consumer vertical is scaling rapidly, showing roughly 25% growth in March following recent model releases and achieving record advertiser spend in April, surpassing any Q4 peak month.
"A couple of weeks ago, we had another material model release that improves scale and return on ad spend significantly for our consumer advertisers. These are the types of compounding improvements we have talked about on prior calls. The team improves the model, advertisers see better returns and they put more budget into our system. It is a virtuous cycle, and it is working. The consumer vertical exited the quarter very strong with March growing roughly 25% more than the numbers we did in January and April reaching a record month in advertiser spend, higher than any peak Q4 month."
- Adam Foroughi, Co-Founder and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. Cash Runway weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 6, 2026): EPS $3.56 vs $3.44 est[FMP], +3.5% beat. D+1 movement: +6.4%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $3.56 vs $3.44 beat[FMP], stock +6.4% D+1[FMP]. Matt Stumpf Q1 transcript: "We expect revenue between $1.915 billion and $1.945 billion, representing 52% to 55% year-over-year growth or 4% to 6% sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1.615 billion and $1.645 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 84% to 85%."[Matt Stumpf].
"We expect revenue between $1.915 billion and $1.945 billion, representing 52% to 55% year-over-year growth or 4% to 6% sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1.615 billion and $1.645 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 84% to 85%."
- Matt Stumpf, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $0[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 78.2%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $3.72[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $0"[Matt Stumpf]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
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Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This AppLovin Corporation (APP) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.