5 analysts' median target is $191[FMP target], stock is $184, +3.8% upside potential. After Q1 +83.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +5.3%.
B+ = MoonshotScore 49[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $773.2M[FMP est], EPS $1.21[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +83.5% beat[FMP] but the stock +5.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Kevin O'Shea promised $60.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Kevin O'Shea capex transcript].
Watchlist
Same Store Revenue Growth
same_store_revenue_growth
AVB's same-store residential revenue grew 1.6% year-over-year with occupancy up 10 basis points to 96.1%.
"Same-store residential revenue grew 1.6% year-over-year with occupancy up 10 basis points to 96.1%."
- Benjamin Schall, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Ai Driven Noi
ai_driven_noi
AVB aims to achieve its Horizon 2 target of $80 million of annual incremental NOI through further deployment of AI solutions and seamless digital self-service experiences.
"Our next set of priorities include the further deployment of AI solutions and our seamless digital self-service experiences, additional enhancements to our technology and data platforms and further optimization of neighborhood and centralized staffing, all on our way to our Horizon 2 target of $80 million of annual incremental NOI in the coming years."
- Benjamin Schall, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Development Starts
development_starts
During the quarter, AVB started nearly $190 million of new development with 2 starts in suburban New Jersey and are on track for $800 million of planned 2026 development starts with projected initial stabilized yields of 6.5% to 7%.
"During the quarter, we started nearly $190 million of new development with 2 starts in suburban New Jersey and are on track for $800 million of planned 2026 development starts with projected initial stabilized yields of 6.5% to 7%."
- Benjamin Schall, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Dispositions Share Repurchases
dispositions_share_repurchases
During the quarter, AVB completed $340 million of dispositions and repurchased $200 million of its shares at an implied cap rate in the low 6% range.
"And during the quarter, we completed $340 million of dispositions and repurchased $200 million of our shares at an implied cap rate in the low 6% range."
- Benjamin Schall, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Development Noi Ramp
development_noi_ramp
AVB expects a ramp in development NOI in 2026, which will further accelerate during the year and into 2027.
"We are also benefiting from the ramp in development NOI in 2026, which will further accelerate during the year and into 2027."
- Benjamin Schall, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Q1 Outperformance
q1_outperformance
AVB's first quarter results exceeded expectations, driven by lower expenses, higher development NOI, and the benefits of share buyback activity.
"Our first quarter results exceeded our expectations, driven by lower expenses, higher development NOI and the benefits of our share buyback activity, which was not included in our original outlook for 2026."
- Benjamin Schall, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $2.33 vs $1.27 est[FMP], +83.5% beat. D+1 movement: +5.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $2.33 vs $1.27 beat[FMP], stock +5.3% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $60.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 28.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.21[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $60.0M"[Kevin O'Shea]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This AVB (AVB) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.