Avery Dennison Corporation
AVY - NYSE - $163.51 ▼ -%1.22
-
Earnings Tue 28 Jul

Avery opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

3 analysts' median target is $222[FMP target], stock is $164, +35.5% upside potential. After Q1 +2.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 4/6 - Moonshot 44

B+ = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.3B[FMP est], EPS $2.47[FMP est]. 4 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.47 EPS Estimate Last year $2.45 - +2% YoY YoY
4 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 4 quarters

Q1 EPS +2.5% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Gregory S. Lovins promised $28.3M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Gregory S. Lovins capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

11% Investor Focus

Materials Group Sales Growth

materials_group_sales_growth

Materials Group reported approximately 2% organic sales growth in the first quarter.

"Materials Group delivered reported sales growth of 11% over the prior year. On an organic basis, sales grew approximately 2%, driven by mid single-digit volume and mix growth that was partially offset by deflation-related price reductions."

- Deon M. Stander, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
$2.43 Expectation / Guide

Q2 Eps Guidance

q2_eps_guidance

Avery Dennison expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.43 to $2.53 for the second quarter.

"We expect adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.43 to $2.53, representing approximately 3% growth year over year at the midpoint."

- Gregory S. Lovins, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
2026 Expectation / Guide

Intelligent Labels Growth Outlook

intelligent_labels_growth_outlook

Avery Dennison expects its enterprise Intelligent Labels platform to outpace 2025 growth in 2026, with performance more heavily weighted towards the second half of the year.

"Looking ahead, we continue to expect 2026 growth for our enterprise Intelligent Labels to outpace 2025, with performance more heavily weighted towards the second half of the year as major programs scale."

- Deon M. Stander, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
1% Investor Focus

Organic Sales Growth Q1

organic_sales_growth_q1

Avery Dennison reported a 1% organic sales growth in the first quarter.

"We delivered a strong start to 2026, with first quarter organic sales up 1%, driven by mid single-digit volume/mix growth, and adjusted EPS up 7% year over year."

- Deon M. Stander, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
3% Investor Focus

Solutions Group Sales Decline

solutions_group_sales_decline

Solutions Group's organic sales decreased by 1% in the first quarter.

"In the Solutions Group, reported sales for the quarter decreased 3%, with sales down 1% on an organic basis."

- Deon M. Stander, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 44 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+3.5%)
Gross Margin3.0Q1: low margin (28.9%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (11.8%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.1B, 3.8x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 43.1 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (82%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +35.5%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 43
Klarman value - target upside +35.5%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +35.5%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
43.1 RSI 43.1 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-4.30 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$171 stock 4.3% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$175 stock 6.4% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-30% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$222
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$164
Pre-earnings position
Support
$148
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$148-$222 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Avery's last 8 quarters: 4 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.42 vs $2.39 est - -1.1%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.37 vs $2.33 est - +4.0%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.45 vs $2.40 est - -0.1%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.47 vs $2.41 est - -2.1%

Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $2.47 vs $2.41 est[FMP], +2.5% beat. D+1 movement: -2.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.40 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $2.47 vs $2.41 beat[FMP], stock -2.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $28.3M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 11.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.47 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.47[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $222[FMP target]; high target $224[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.47 + CapEx < $28.3M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.47[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $28.3M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $164[FMP] and median $222[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.40 or CapEx >= $28.3M
Threshold: EPS < $2.40[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $164 below SMA200 $175[FMP], if rejection continues, $148[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 3 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$222
12-month median target price (+35.5% upside potential)
9
BUY
2
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$148
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$171 - 50-day MA (below, -4.3%)
$175 - 200-day MA (below, -6.4%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - AVY Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.47[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $28.3M"[Gregory S. Lovins]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 28, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 29, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 11, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 28, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the AVY earnings preview cover?

This AVY (AVY) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in AVY earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.