25 analysts' median target is $225[FMP target], stock is $170, +32.6% upside potential. After Q1 +5.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.3%.
B- = MoonshotScore 53[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $7.2B[FMP est], EPS $2.47[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +5.6% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Ewout Steenbergen promised $107.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Ewout Steenbergen capex transcript].
Watchlist
Q2 Room Night Growth Guidance
q2_room_night_growth_guidance
The company expects second quarter room night growth to be between 2% and 4%.
"We currently expect second quarter room night growth to be between 2% and 4% and for gross bookings, revenue and adjusted EBITDA to each grow between 4% and 6%."
- Ewout Steenbergen - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Room Night Growth Impact
room_night_growth_impact
The conflict in the Middle East impacted room night growth by approximately 2 percentage points.
"We estimate that the Middle East conflict impacted our room night and gross bookings growth by approximately 2 percentage points, accounting for directly impacted countries in the region as well as bookers whose travel was affected by the conflict."
- Glenn Fogel - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Connected Trip Growth
connected_trip_growth
Connected Trip transactions increased in the high teens range and represented a low double-digit percentage of Booking.com's total transactions.
"In the first quarter, connected transactions, meaning trips that included bookings across more than one vertical grew in the high teens range and represented a low double-digit percentage of Booking.com's total transactions."
- Glenn Fogel - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Us Room Night Growth
us_room_night_growth
U.S. room night growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter to the low teens, driven primarily by strong domestic demand.
"As a result of our continued disciplined execution, I am pleased to report that our U.S. room night growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter to the low teens, driven primarily by strong domestic demand."
- Glenn Fogel - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Share Repurchase
share_repurchase
The company completed a record $3.6 billion in share repurchases in the first quarter.
"Our confidence in these initiatives and our future growth profile is reflected in a capital allocation strategy that we've employed for well over a decade, including the record $3.6 billion in share repurchases we completed in the first quarter."
- Glenn Fogel - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Asia Growth Opportunity
asia_growth_opportunity
Asia continues to see one of the most compelling structural growth opportunities in the global travel industry.
"In Asia, we continue to see one of the most compelling structural growth opportunities in the global travel industry."
- Glenn Fogel - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $1.14 vs $1.08 est[FMP], +5.6% beat. D+1 movement: +0.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.14 vs $1.08 beat[FMP], stock +0.3% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $107.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 23.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $2.47[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $107.0M"[Ewout Steenbergen]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This BKNG (BKNG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.