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Builders FirstSource, Inc.
BLDR - NYSE - $77.40 (as of ) ▼ -2.53%
-
Earnings Thu 30 Jul
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-07-30 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Q2 FY26 earnings preview — archived, published May 9, 2026

The median of 11 price targets is $105[FMP target], stock is $77, +35.7% vs the analyst consensus median. Q1 FY26 EPS $0.27 vs $0.39 estimate: miss (-30.8%)[FMP earnings]. Stock move on D+1: -4.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds ·
B
Council 3/6 - Historical V1 score 31

B — FMP rating [FMP ratings]. Form 4: unavailable[FMP Form 4].

Quick Answer

Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Q2 consensus: revenue $3.9B[FMP est], EPS $1.32[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$1.32 EPS Estimate Last year $2.38 - -45% YoY
0 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 0 quarters

Q1 FY26 EPS $0.27 vs $0.39 estimate: miss (-30.8%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: -4.3%[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$14.6 billion Expectation / Guide

Revised Fy26 Guidance

revised_fy26_guidance

The company has revised its full year 2026 net sales guidance to a range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion due to weak market conditions.

"As a result, we are adding net sales in the range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.5% to 9.6%."

- Pete Beckmann, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$3.75 billion Expectation / Guide

Q2 2026 Guidance

q2_2026_guidance

The company expects net sales for Q2 2026 to be between $3.75 billion and $4.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be between $300 million and $350 million.

"For Q2, we expect net sales to be between $3.75 billion and $4.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be between $300 million and $350 million."

- Pete Beckmann, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$800 million Investor Focus

Digital Platform Growth

digital_platform_growth

The company's digital platform processed nearly $800 million of quotes in Q1, highlighting the platform's growth and importance.

"In Q1, our digital platform processed nearly $800 million of quotes as we continue to automate key steps of the process."

- Peter Jackson, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$100 million Investor Focus

Cost Reduction Actions

cost_reduction_actions

The company has executed $100 million of cost actions as part of its downturn playbook.

"As we touched on in February, we linked further into our downturn playbook with $100 million of cost actions, which includes $75 million in year-over-year cost reductions and $25 million in cost avoidance."

- Pete Beckmann, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
50% Investor Focus

Share Repurchase Program

share_repurchase_program

Since the inception of the buyback program in August of 2021, the company has repurchased nearly 50% of its total shares outstanding.

"Since the inception of the buyback program in August of 2021, we have repurchased nearly 50% of our total shares outstanding."

- Peter Jackson, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 6 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +35.7%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 39
Klarman value - target upside +35.7%
Buffett quality - ROE score 3/5
Munger valuation - target upside +35.7%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
39.3 RSI 39.3 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-10.20 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$86 stock 10.2% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$112 stock 30.9% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-40% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$105
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$77
Pre-earnings position
Support
$95
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$95-$105 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

4 quarters shown.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.38 vs $2.35 est · Next-day price move: +2.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.88 vs $1.75 est · Next-day price move: +4.0%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.12 vs $1.30 est · Next-day price move: -0.6%
MISS
Q1 FY26
$0.27 vs $0.39 est · Next-day price move: -4.3%

Q1 FY26 (April 30, 2026) EPS $0.27 vs $0.39 estimate: miss (-30.8%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: -4.3%[FMP D+1].

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.28 (no guidance)

Q1 FY26 EPS $0.27 vs $0.39 estimate: miss (-30.8%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: -4.3%[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $46.7M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 0.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q2 EPS > $1.32 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.32[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $105[FMP target]; high target $143[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.32 + CapEx < $46.7M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.32[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $46.7M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $77[FMP] and median $105[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.28 or CapEx >= $46.7M
Threshold: EPS < $1.28[FMP estx0.97].
Current price $77 — below SMA200 $112 [FMP].

Market Outlook

What do analysts say? 11 price targets · 21 ratings

Wall Street Consensus
$105
12-month median target price (+35.7% gap to the analyst consensus median)
11
BUY
9
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$95
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$86 - 50-day MA (below, -10.2%)
$112 - 200-day MA (below, -30.9%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - BLDR Q2 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q2 EPS threshold $1.32[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $46.7M". Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 30, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 31, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 14, 2026FILING10-Q due within 40–45 days of quarter end (by Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 14, 2026); the exact deadline depends on filer status
~Oct 30, 2026EARNINGSQ3 FY26 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the BLDR Q2 FY26 earnings preview cover?

This Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Q2 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in BLDR Q2 FY26 earnings?

Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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